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shel311
Nicholls St. Fan
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
79429 posts

re: Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?
quote:

Here's another piece that supports going for two early and has some data on occurrences
Good stuff. The only thing I don't like he's basically me and/or a few others on this side arguing the point with opinions an no real data. He said a few times something along the lines of going for 2 early obviously increases your odds of winning, but he didn't present any data. Again, I'm no better than him, but the way the article started and the facts he was presenting, I thought he was going to have some hard data behind it. Ah well.



From that article:

quote:

The counterargument goes something along the lines of “just take the points, that way it is a one-score game.” Essentially, people are afraid of missing the two-point attempt and trailing by 9 points. But it’s not a one-score game. Trailing by 8 isn’t a one-score game if you are going to fail on your two-point try. And there’s no reason to think your odds of converting a 2-point attempt are higher when trailing by 2 than by 9. Trailing by 8 is a 1.5-possiession game; half the time it is a 1-possession game, and half the time it is a 2-possesion game. To simply put your head in the sand and say “I don’t wanna know!!” may keep hope alive longer but it lowers your odds of winning.






quote:

There are many hypothetical scenarios where it would really matter to know whether you are going to be successful on your two-point conversion. Say you’re down 15 with 7 minutes to go and score a touchdown. You stop the other team, get the ball back, and drive to their 25. You’re out of timeouts and there are 3 minutes to go. It’s 4th and 10. At that point, wouldn’t your decision to go for it change if you were down by 9 instead of 8? Down 8, teams go for it because they consider it a one-score game. But if you’re going to miss the 2-point conversion, now you’d want to kick the field goal.

I don't mean this sarcastically, but i'd be interested to see how the "Go for 2 after the 2nd TD" crowd would respond to this.
This post was edited on 9/24 at 12:53 pm


Twenty 49
LSU Fan
Shreveport
Member since Jun 2014
13438 posts

re: Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?
Miami 28. Jags 13, after a missed PAT.

15 point lead on TV now. Let’s see what they do.


castorinho
Oklahoma Fan
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
70315 posts
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re: Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?
quote:

with opinions an no real data.
I think the culprit for a lack of good comparison is the fact that coaches just don't do it


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made4lsu
LSU Fan
New Orleans, LA
Member since Apr 2009
4516 posts
 Online 

re: Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?
The irony is they missed an extra point to get here. People in this thread making the argument PATs are automatic so you should go for 2 first.


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Samso
Tulane Fan
nyc
Member since Jun 2013
4039 posts

re: Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?
Cowboys in this exact situation right now


BVD
Tennessee Fan
Go vols screw y'alls
Member since Oct 2017
397 posts

re: Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?
Why didn’t they go for 2?


chalmetteowl
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2008
32344 posts
 Online 

re: Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?
quote:

Why didn’t they go for 2?

because that would be chasing points if they didn’t get it. So take the 1 because you might just win by two touchdowns anyway


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slackster
Stanford Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
68906 posts

re: Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?
quote:

Why didn’t they go for 2?


My gut says going for 2 down 8 makes the most sense when you only have one or two possessions left, not midway through the 3rd.


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Fus0623
LSU Fan
Lafayette, LA
Member since Jan 2015
65892 posts

re: Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?
You have to stay within 1 possession for as long as possible


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slackster
Stanford Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
68906 posts

re: Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?
quote:

You have to stay within 1 possession for as long as possible


Not true into the 4th quarter, but it’s fine for now.


chalmetteowl
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2008
32344 posts
 Online 

re: Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?
Honestly y’all have it backwards. The third quarter is the ideal time to “get that information”. If the Cowboys score that touchdown in the fourth quarter, then I understand keeping it a one possession game


slackster
Stanford Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
68906 posts

re: Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?
quote:

Honestly y’all have it backwards. The third quarter is the ideal time to “get that information”. If the Cowboys score that touchdown in the fourth quarter, then I understand keeping it a one possession game


Nope.

Eta- if you’re down 21-6 in the third, then sure , obviously it’s a low scoring game so you treat middle third like the 4th.
This post was edited on 9/27 at 8:03 pm


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slackster
Stanford Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
68906 posts

re: Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?
quote:

Yes you’re right and if that’s how it came off I apologize. Going for 2 is the lower pct play so you take the more given outcome first. You’re playing uphill and vs the clock so first priority should be to keep yourself in the game as long as possible. You don’t wanna gamble until you have to when you’re margin for error is smallest. You’re going to be down a possession regardless but you bring a second possession into play if you go for 2 first.


When you’re down 15 late, you are already in the middle of the gamble. Going for 2 early is not gambling. Going for 2 late is absolutely gambling.


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castorinho
Oklahoma Fan
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
70315 posts
 Online 

re: Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?
quote:

but it’s fine for now.
not if you want to stick with the analytics aspect of it


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Bow to Auburn
Auburn Fan
Member since Aug 2010
1738 posts

re: Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?
Disagree.... situation and time should definitely play a factor.

There are times when it’s good to go for it early...

But I’d also say there are times when it’s best to let it ride on one play.


icegator337
Houston Astros Fan
Lafayette
Member since Jan 2013
2819 posts

re: Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?
did everyone just hear the explanation in the Bill Titans game???

Announcer explained it nicely. You have to go for two there


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UAinSOUTHAL
Alabama Fan
Mobile,AL
Member since Dec 2012
2455 posts

re: Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?
The biggest reason you go for 2 on the 1st TD is because it gives you the most options.

The ability to go for the WIN or the tie on the 2nd TD. The only way you get that option is going for 2 on the 1st TD and converting. There are times where you might want to have a shot at the win.

Also I have always been a fan of them adding a way for you to get a 3 point PAT. Same as a 2 pt try but the ball is placed at the 15 yd line and you get one shot to get in the end zone. Could make the game a little more exciting and fun. Give a team with an impossible uphill climb a chance.
This post was edited on 10/14 at 5:31 am


castorinho
Oklahoma Fan
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
70315 posts
 Online 

re: Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?
Rams found themselves in this situation and Mcvay, of all people, chose to kick the xp.

3 and a half minutes on the clock


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