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re: Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?
Posted on 9/23/20 at 11:03 am to Madking
Posted on 9/23/20 at 11:03 am to Madking
quote:It shouldn't be the debate, but if you look at this thread, it is said over and over and over.
No that isn’t the debate
quote:That would be completely misguided if someone did that, luckily I did not do that.
and to pretend that a 95+% play is equal to a 50-50 or even 60% chance play is just completely misguided.
0
Posted on 9/23/20 at 11:16 am to Roger Klarvin
People give too much credit to momentum.
Deal is this... you are down 15... you score... now down 9... go for 1... now down 8, hold, score another TD... now down 2.
You are on a 13-0 run. It's late in the game. All the momentum is in your favor. You have more momentum now, then you did when you scored the first TD to go down by 9. More momentum = they believe better odds to convert the two.
This is why people think it's best to wait.
Deal is this... you are down 15... you score... now down 9... go for 1... now down 8, hold, score another TD... now down 2.
You are on a 13-0 run. It's late in the game. All the momentum is in your favor. You have more momentum now, then you did when you scored the first TD to go down by 9. More momentum = they believe better odds to convert the two.
This is why people think it's best to wait.
Posted on 9/23/20 at 11:23 am to crazyatthecamp
quote:See, perfect example of assuming it's a 1 possession game and the 2pt conversion will be made.
Go for 1 to get it to a one possession game
There's just as high of a chance that an 8 point game is a 2 possession game as it is a 1 possession game.
quote:Being down 7 is not the "same deal" as being down 8.
You go for 2 the first time and
- if you make it, it's still a one possession game. Same deal
Posted on 9/23/20 at 12:20 pm to shel311
I missed this thread, but my assumption has always been to go for one now, then go for two as late as possible. If you go for two now, you essentially play yourself out of the game much earlier than going for it later. And this is all assuming there is limited time on the clock to where you won't have lots of possessions to see how it plays out.
Getting the ball on an onsides kick isn't likely to happen (unless you play the Saints or Falcons apparently). So you have to assume you only have one more possession (that if you score you can try for two) to work with.
I've always been a proponent of going for one now and two later. And being down 8 is definitely a one possession game...not sure what that argument is all about.
Getting the ball on an onsides kick isn't likely to happen (unless you play the Saints or Falcons apparently). So you have to assume you only have one more possession (that if you score you can try for two) to work with.
I've always been a proponent of going for one now and two later. And being down 8 is definitely a one possession game...not sure what that argument is all about.
Posted on 9/23/20 at 12:32 pm to Roger Klarvin
quote:
Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?
You should do the same thing down 14 points as well. This is copied and pasted from a 2018 article that talks about the Winning Percentage of going for two after being down 14 points and scoring a TD (ETA, I see the 538 Article corroborates this as well):
1. Convert on the two-point attempt, successfully kick a PAT after the second touchdown and win: 46 percent
2. Convert on the two-point attempt, but miss the PAT and tie: 3 percent
3. Fail on the first two-point attempt, but succeed on the second and tie: 25 percent
4. Fail on both two-point attempts and lose: 26 percent
Again, it’s important to remember 14 points is not the destination, 15 or 17 or 21 or any number greater than 14 is. You haven’t won the game when you’ve kicked two PATs to rally for a tie. You’ve simply extended it, requiring your defense to get another stop and your offense to put together another drive.
The goal isn’t to come back but to do so in as few plays as possible, thereby limiting your exposure to a coverage bust by your cornerback, a crippling holding penalty by your right tackle or any of the infinite variables that can derail a comeback. You’re asking your team to execute 10, 15, 25 or more plays at that point rather than just one — the 2-point conversion.
This post was edited on 9/23/20 at 12:48 pm
Posted on 9/23/20 at 12:41 pm to CocomoLSU
quote:Being down by 9 with 5+ minutes is not a good spot to be, but the point is you're not out of the game.
If you go for two now, you essentially play yourself out of the game much earlier than going for it later
Being down by 8 and pretending you're 100% down 1 possession like coaches do, and they don't rush things like they were down 2 possessions, and next thing you know, they score with :41 seconds left, missing the 2pt conversion, then are scratching their heads because now they're out of the game with not enough time to catch up, when they could have saved a couple of minutes off the clock had they known they were down by more than 1 possession.
quote:If the scenario is super late in a game and you really only have 1 more possession left after you score to go down 9, I really don't think it matters at all if you go for 2 now or later. Either way, not getting the 2pt conversion loses the game, so not sure why it would matter.
So you have to assume you only have one more possession (that if you score you can try for two) to work with.
quote:Huh? The 2pt conversion success rate is below 50%, you are more likely to be down 2 possessions than 1, why would you think that's a 1 possession game?
And being down 8 is definitely a one possession game...not sure what that argument is all about.
Posted on 9/23/20 at 1:34 pm to shel311
quote:
Being down by 8 and pretending you're 100% down 1 possession
I don't get what this means and you keep saying it. It's not "pretending" to be down one possession. You do know what that means, right? It means that in one possession you can not be down anymore. So if you score and convert the 2PC, you are not losing anymore. That's literally what it means and that's literally a fact.
Obviously the conversion is not guaranteed, but that shouldn't come into play here. It's the chance to continue the game instead of losing during regulation. And if you go for two early and don't get it, you frick yourself later and don't even give yourself THE CHANCE to tie the game because you're now added another possession that you need (which relies on scoring as well).
quote:
then are scratching their heads because now they're out of the game with not enough time to catch up, when they could have saved a couple of minutes off the clock had they known they were down by more than 1 possession.
Your argument seems to hinge upon the "knowing." You say that it's better because you KNOW that you need an additional possession and score. And that shouldn't come into play at all IMO, because we're talking about it being so late in the game that adding an additional possession essentially takes you out of the game and guarantees you a loss. Which is why it's smarter to not go for two until you absolutely have to.
quote:
Huh? The 2pt conversion success rate is below 50%, you are more likely to be down 2 possessions than 1, why would you think that's a 1 possession game?
See above. You and I clearly have a different definition of what a one possession game means.
Posted on 9/23/20 at 1:37 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:
People give too much credit to momentum.
The way you explained it ... momentum should get most of the credit
Posted on 9/23/20 at 1:39 pm to CocomoLSU
quote:It means you're more than likely down 2 possessions when you're down by 8.
I don't get what this means and you keep saying it. It's not "pretending" to be down one possession
quote:Ok, and you're less likely do that, this isn't rocket science here, not sure why you're ignoring that.
So if you score and convert the 2PC, you are not losing anymore. That's literally what it means and that's literally a fact.
quote:And hence, why at least 50% of the time, you are not actually down 1 possession.
Obviously the conversion is not guaranteed, but that shouldn't come into play here
quote:The end result is the same, if you frick up the 2pt conversion you're losing either way if you only have 1 possession left.
And if you go for two early and don't get it, you frick yourself later and don't even give yourself THE CHANCE to tie the game because you're now added another possession that you need (which relies on scoring as well).
quote:Of course that's better, that's a pretty logical statement.
Your argument seems to hinge upon the "knowing." You say that it's better because you KNOW that you need an additional possession and score.
quote:That's not really what we've been talking about, it was never about if you score down 15 and only have time for 1 more possession. That was never the discussion, though again, if you only have 1 possession left, it simply does not matter when you go for 2.
And that shouldn't come into play at all IMO, because we're talking about it being so late in the game that adding an additional possession essentially takes you out of the game and guarantees you a loss.
Posted on 9/23/20 at 1:44 pm to shel311
quote:
That's not really what we've been talking about, it was never about if you score down 15 and only have time for 1 more possession.
That was my basic takeaway from the OP and what he was saying, so maybe that's the disconnect. I approached it from a "you have two possessions left and are down 15, so on one of them you'll need to convert the 2PC." Maybe that's due to me joining the thread too late.
FWIW, I understand everything that you're saying/arguing, I just don't agree that most of it is relevant to the discussion (or at least my interpretation of it). Because in my argument, having to score a third time = losing the game due to not having enough time left.
quote:
though again, if you only have 1 possession left, it simply does not matter when you go for 2.
I do disagree with that. If you only (conceivably) have one possession left after you score, you should kick the XP and go for two on the next score. That was my argument.
Wish I'd have seen this thread earlier.
This post was edited on 9/23/20 at 1:46 pm
Posted on 9/23/20 at 1:48 pm to CocomoLSU
quote:
Which is why it's smarter to not go for two until you absolutely have to.
That's the point of the argument. You're always going to have to go for two. Why is it smarter to do it later than earlier? People will argue that you have momentum, but there can also be nerves that come into play. Going for 2 with 5 minutes left may feel like a normal play to the offense, and they can relax. Going for 2 with 20 seconds left is the game.
Posted on 9/23/20 at 1:51 pm to CocomoLSU
quote:
Because in my argument, having to score a third time = losing the game due to not having enough time left.
That is the exact reason to go for two early. Going for 2 late doesn't mean you have a better chance to get the conversion.
I'd rather be down 9 with five minutes left knowing I probably should onside kick to increase my win probability than be down 2 with 20 seconds left knowing that even if I get the onside, I probably don't have enough time. Also, going for 2 early gives you the opportunity to get the conversion twice if you want to avoid overtime.
This post was edited on 9/23/20 at 2:03 pm
Posted on 9/23/20 at 2:24 pm to shel311
quote:
See, perfect example of assuming it's a 1 possession game and the 2pt conversion will be made.
There's just as high of a chance that an 8 point game is a 2 possession game as it is a 1 possession game
I don't think you understand what a "1 possession game" is. Being down 8 points is a one possession game because you have the possibility of scoring 8 points without having to kick off to the other team. So whether or not it is difficult to score 8 is not the point. It is the fact that you have the possibility to.
Being down 9 is literally a 2 possession game. You can't score 9 points on one possession.
The term one possession game is simply referring to the fact that you have possibility to score that amount of points in one possession. By your logic a 7 point game isn't truly one possession because you might end up with a field goal on the possession.
This post was edited on 9/23/20 at 2:33 pm
Posted on 9/23/20 at 2:32 pm to made4lsu
quote:
I don't think you understand what a "1 possession game" is. Being down 8 points is a one possession game because you have the possibility of scoring 8 points without having to kick off to the other team. So whether or not it is difficult to score 8 is not the point. It is the fact that you have the possibility to.
Being down 9 is literally a 2 possession game. You can't score 9 points on one possession.
The problem is that when you frame the argument this way, you've assumed a missed conversion in the early argument and then framed it against the conversion not having been done yet for your go for it late argument. You're not comparing apples to apples
Posted on 9/23/20 at 2:35 pm to monkeybutt
I'm not arguing one way or the other what a coach should do. I am simply saying the term 1 possession game simply means you have the ability to get that number of points on one possession. An 8 point game is a one possession game always. It is up to the team to get the 8 points, but they always have the opportunity to get 8 in one possession of the ball.
Posted on 9/23/20 at 2:40 pm to crazyatthecamp
quote:
momentum
This is the only argument for going for 1 first. And it's not a good one imo. I think too much credit is given to momentum.
The basic principal is if your down 15 you are either going to score two TD's, one 2 pt conversion and one standard PAT or you will need to score two TDs, a standard PAT, a missed 2-PAT, and a field goal. Those are your two most likely outcomes to force overtime or win the game in regulation.
The reason to go for two first is to know whether you should kick a fg or go for it on 4th and 10 from the opponents 30 on your ensuing drive. It also allows you to manage the clock and timeouts properly when you know how many scores/possessions you need.
There are 0 logical reasons to go for one first, only emotional ones in regards to momentum or the likelyhood of your team playing hard
Posted on 9/23/20 at 3:21 pm to DestrehanTiger
quote:
That's the point of the argument. You're always going to have to go for two. Why is it smarter to do it later than earlier? People will argue that you have momentum, but there can also be nerves that come into play. Going for 2 with 5 minutes left may feel like a normal play to the offense, and they can relax. Going for 2 with 20 seconds left is the game.
Right, you're definitely gonna have to go for two once, so why do it early? If you don't get it, the game is over (under normal circumstances and barring some weird turnover, since there isn't enough time to score three times). If you kick the XP, then you postpone having to make a play for the game until you absolutely have to. The only thing going for it first ensures is that you know if you've lost the game or not earlier (assuming all things equal, such as making the XP when you do kick it).
quote:
That is the exact reason to go for two early. Going for 2 late doesn't mean you have a better chance to get the conversion.
I'd rather be down 9 with five minutes left knowing I probably should onside kick to increase my win probability than be down 2 with 20 seconds left knowing that even if I get the onside, I probably don't have enough time. Also, going for 2 early gives you the opportunity to get the conversion twice if you want to avoid overtime.
And nobody is arguing (or at least I am not) that going for it later gives you a better chance of converting.
What is your argument of "I'd rather be down 9 with five minutes left than down 2 with 20 seconds left" mean" Those are both results of going for the 2PC first as opposed to later.
I would rather kick the XP and be down 8 (i.e. it's still a one-possession game despite what shel keeps arguing) than be down 9 with not enough time to get the ball back, score, get the ball back again, and score. If you go for the two first and don't get it, you've fricked yourself out of a chance to tie, whereas if you kick the XP early, it's still a one possession game and you can get the ball back with a chance to tie the game.
I feel like I am taking crazy pills with so many people arguing that going for two first is the right/smart play. It makes zero sense to me, and I'm generally a bright guy.
All logic tells me to not go for two until you have to. ETA: and again, my argument is when you are down to your last possessions of the game...i.e. there isn't enough time for you to score three times (or two MORE times as the case may be).
This post was edited on 9/23/20 at 3:23 pm
Posted on 9/23/20 at 3:31 pm to CocomoLSU
It’s mental gymnastics, these guys are trying to invent a statistical advantage that doesn’t exist out of thin air and pretend it’s some kindve analytics based conclusion. But notice they’re giving false equivalencies and uneven scenarios to try and prove it. The percentage play is to kick first and that’s been proven over and over in this thread. You have one guy saying 8 points isn’t a 1 possession game for crying out loud, it’s nonsense.
This post was edited on 9/23/20 at 3:35 pm
Posted on 9/23/20 at 3:37 pm to CocomoLSU
quote:
I would rather kick the XP and be down 8 (i.e. it's still a one-possession game despite what shel keeps arguing) than be down 9 with not enough time to get the ball back, score, get the ball back again, and score. If you go for the two first and don't get it, you've fricked yourself out of a chance to tie, whereas if you kick the XP early, it's still a one possession game and you can get the ball back with a chance to tie the game.
When you make this point you have to assume you miss the two point conversion after the second td to adequately compare the scenarios. I don't understand why this is so hard to understand.
Posted on 9/23/20 at 3:41 pm to CocomoLSU
quote:
And nobody is arguing (or at least I am not) that going for it later gives you a better chance of converting.
Ok, good. Then we can take the explanation to the next step. Let's use the two outcomes from the two point conversion that we agree you have to attempt at least once and you have an equal chance of making no matter the timing.
1. You fail the 2 pt conversion
No matter when you fail, your chances of winning the game drop drastically. However, if you fail on the second try, your chances of winning are likely 0. You've played out the game assuming you can tie with a score and left yourself little or no time on the clock. The only thing you have accomplished is giving your fans hope. The win probability for the team that failed earlier is higher than the team that failed later. Though it is highly unlikely, they can choose to kick an onside kick right after the fail, they can get a stop and try to score twice by some miracle.
2. You convert the 2 pt conversion
If you converted it on the first try, you now have the option to win the game in regulation with another 2 pt conversion or take the game to overtime with an extra point. If you convert on the second try, your only option is to go into overtime. The win probabilities may be close, but you at least have an option.
quote:
What is your argument of "I'd rather be down 9 with five minutes left than down 2 with 20 seconds left" mean" Those are both results of going for the 2PC first as opposed to later.
What I meant was my preference in scenario 1 where I miss the 2PC. If I miss the 2PC with 5 minutes left and I'm down 9, I have 5 minutes to figure out a way to win. If I kick the XP first, score with 20 seconds left, and miss the 2PC, I now have 20 seconds in which I have to get the onside kick and get enough yards to get in field goal range to win.
ETA: I wanted to add that I enjoy these arguments.
This post was edited on 9/23/20 at 3:51 pm
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