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1
Posted on 9/22/20 at 9:04 am to TheWhitemamba16
not necessarily, we would need to see the odds of converting after a defensive TD. MAYBE you scored on D To make it 9 and we know you are much less likely or more likely to score the 2 after a non-offensive TD.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 9:10 am to Boomshockalocka
So you think the odds of attempting a 2 point conversion against a defense that’s rested a possession are better then the odds of converting against a defense that just scored on and is breathing heavy?
Posted on 9/22/20 at 9:13 am to TheWhitemamba16
So is everyone just ignoring the only actual data posted in this thread 
Posted on 9/22/20 at 9:14 am to Boomshockalocka
I get your point you are making and I’m no statistician.. I just would prefer to always go up against a defense that at least has played 1 play vs a defense that just sat out a possession. Personal preference not backed by anything on that matter
Posted on 9/22/20 at 9:14 am to TheWhitemamba16
I’m saying that, you would need to see the data. A defense isn’t always “breathing heavy” after a TD. there is lots of variables that go into it other than just saying you have the exact same chance of making it both the first and second time.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 9:16 am to Boomshockalocka
Aside from the scenario you referenced I can’t imagine much else that would effect conversion ratio simply by delaying it.. their is no data to verify any of this as you can’t try it both ways holding all other variables equal. It’s all speculation
Posted on 9/22/20 at 9:19 am to castorinho
Didn’t seem like that data was really comparable/noteworthy if you’re talking about the link you posted. It seemed like they didn’t really reach a conclusion or find much change in odds
Posted on 9/22/20 at 10:05 am to Roger Klarvin
Reading this thread almost has me convinced teams should just go for 2 after any TD.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 10:18 am to TheWhitemamba16
quote:they're saying it should, but the data doesn't reflect it. Why the data doesn't reflect it is unknown though. But could very well give credence to the mental aspect of things. Or could be that the sample size isn't big enough.
Aside from the scenario you referenced I can’t imagine much else that would effect conversion ratio simply by delaying it.. their is no data to verify any of this as you can’t try it both ways holding all other variables equal. It’s all speculation
One thing that stands out for sure is that if a team is down 14 late and score a TD, they should go for two. But no coach is going to do that and risk catch the heat (which is what dictates these decision, not increase of win expectancy
) This post was edited on 9/22/20 at 10:20 am
Posted on 9/22/20 at 10:35 am to castorinho
They go for 2 twice? Or just until they hit the conversion successfully
Posted on 9/22/20 at 10:59 am to Roger Klarvin
Wrong
Posted on 9/22/20 at 11:25 am to OceanMan
quote:
Completely depends on situation, mostly where the clock is. If you are down two scores with only enough time to reasonably score twice, there is no reason to take yourself out of it before the second TD.
Exactly how I feel about it. Dallas got lucky recovering an onside kick which is close to impossible with today's rules.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 11:31 am to RLDSC FAN
quote:
Exactly how I feel about it. Dallas got lucky recovering an onside kick which is close to impossible with today's rules.
Either way if you miss the 2 point conversation that you need, you’re going to have to get lucky on an onside kick.
You can’t operate under the assumption that the 2 point conversation at the end of the game would’ve been successful and compare it against the actual 2 point conversion attempt that wasn’t successful.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 11:32 am to RLDSC FAN
Down 15 you do not invite an extra possession by going for 2, you make it a one possession game period.
This post was edited on 9/22/20 at 11:37 am
Posted on 9/22/20 at 11:56 am to Madking
quote:
Down 15 you do not invite an extra possession by going for 2, you make it a one possession game period.
The only thing you do here is bail the coach out of liability if they lose on a failed last second 2 conversion attempt, because they were "in it until the end." - but that's the only gain.
Say you do get down 9. Your opponent than does 2 things:
a) Takes the air out of the ball (gives you the chance to focus on stuffing the run 3 times and getting the ball back)
b) On the next drive, you're going to be dealing with the most easy to score on defense in history - the prevent.
You do need the touchdown there (you were going to need it anyway), but that touchdown comes easier when the defense is in garbage time mode. From here, so long as it's not past the 2 minute warning (and even better if you have a timeout), you'll be in position to AGAIN get the ball back.
On that last (final) possession, which you only knew you needed because you went for 2 early, you're again looking at a soft cover 2 with the safeties deep...the kind of defense that leaves that team's fans screaming since semi-competent QB's have no problems marching into long field goal range from just about anywhere on the field in about 30 seconds.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 12:25 pm to Roger Klarvin
quote:
It is objective, statistical fact that going for two after the first TD when down by 15 is the right move. You want to know as early as possible whether you need two or three scores. This seems not only intuitive to me but is backed up by decades of data
I agree with you, but where exactly is this data? If you actually had it, wouldn't you just post it?
Edit: Looks like someone posted the data on page three. Thanks.
This post was edited on 9/22/20 at 12:28 pm
Posted on 9/22/20 at 12:45 pm to shel311
quote:
I've heard that argument as well, and it is quite literally just completely made up.
It's a fan argument projected on to players
We want to avoid the 2 pt failure so we stay engaged and hopeful in the game and we don't have to cross that bridge until later. I seriously think it's some subconscious self-preservation thing for fans.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 1:16 pm to shel311
.
This post was edited on 4/17/21 at 8:05 pm
Posted on 9/22/20 at 1:31 pm to Roger Klarvin
I understand both sides of the argument.
I'd still kick the XP to make it an 8 point game.
Why commit to a poor percentage play before you have to?
I think if you're down 8 the defense knows it can get the ball back and tie. If you're down 9, is the defense going to be as motivated?
I think it is situational.
I'd still kick the XP to make it an 8 point game.
Why commit to a poor percentage play before you have to?
I think if you're down 8 the defense knows it can get the ball back and tie. If you're down 9, is the defense going to be as motivated?
I think it is situational.
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