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re: Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?
Posted on 9/23/20 at 3:50 pm to monkeybutt
Posted on 9/23/20 at 3:50 pm to monkeybutt
quote:
When you make this point you have to assume you miss the two point conversion after the second td to adequately compare the scenarios. I don't understand why this is so hard to understand.
That's not true at all though. You don't have to assume that at all. In either case if you miss the 2PC, then you lose IMO. So prolonging it prolongs the chance of tying (and possibly eventually winning) the game, which is why you should not go for it until you absolutely are forced to.
I guess it comes down to personal preference.
But isn't "the chart" (that we always hear about from announcers) based on facts and statistics? And doesn't that chart always say to not go for two until you have to? I can't imagine that is just completely made up (but I honestly have no idea). quote:
ETA: I wanted to add that I enjoy these arguments.
Agreed.
This post was edited on 9/23/20 at 3:51 pm
4
Posted on 9/23/20 at 3:52 pm to CocomoLSU
quote:No worries, this is one of my MSB hills I like to die on for some reason.
That was my basic takeaway from the OP and what he was saying, so maybe that's the disconnect. I approached it from a "you have two possessions left and are down 15, so on one of them you'll need to convert the 2PC." Maybe that's due to me joining the thread too late.
quote:If you truly only have time for 1 more possession when you score to go down 9, I get the idea of why you may want to kick, but the reality of that is, if you truly only have 1 possession left for the offense then it really doesn't matter. The moment that 2pt conversion is missed, the game is 100% over in your scenario so I just don't see how it matters if you only have 1 possession left.
FWIW, I understand everything that you're saying/arguing, I just don't agree that most of it is relevant to the discussion (or at least my interpretation of it). Because in my argument, having to score a third time = losing the game due to not having enough time left.
quote:I'm glad I caught it early lol.
Wish I'd have seen this thread earlier.
Posted on 9/23/20 at 3:55 pm to CocomoLSU
quote:
That's not true at all though. You don't have to assume that at all.
You are literally making an argument comparing a situation where you miss the 2 pt conversion if you go for it early with a situation where you haven't gone for the 2 pt conversion yet. That is not a valid comparison. If you want to argue if you should go for it after the first td or the second, you need to look at it from the perspective of if you make the 2 pt conversion in both situations vs. if you miss the 2 pt conversion in both situations.
Posted on 9/23/20 at 3:55 pm to CocomoLSU
quote:
So prolonging it prolongs the chance of tying (and possibly eventually winning) the game, which is why you should not go for it until you absolutely are forced to.
That is the point he is trying to make. You aren't accomplishing anything by delaying the inevitable failed 2PC. Sure, you are staying in the game longer, but the end result is a failed 2PC and a loss.
The simplest way to break it down is this. If I miss the 2PC, I'm probably going to lose, but my win probability is higher if I miss it early. It may be 1.1% vs 1%, but it is still higher.
Posted on 9/23/20 at 3:55 pm to made4lsu
quote:I don't think you understand that being down 8 is REALISTICALLY not a 1 possession game.
I don't think you understand what a "1 possession game" is.
It's more than likely a 2 possession game, THAT is the point.
quote:No matter what, if you miss the 2pt conversion, it IS a 2 possession deficit, again, THAT is the point. Going for 2 later doesn't magically increase your odds of getting that 2pt conversion and/or increase your odds of tying the ball game.
Being down 9 is literally a 2 possession game. You can't score 9 points on one possession.
quote:Apples to orange when you're talking about a near 100%(or whatever it is, likely lower now) conversion rate compared to a sub 50% conversion rate. Again, I'm talking about the reality of the situation which is all that should matter to a coach. The perception that it's a 1 possession game isn't relevant. The reality that you have a more than 50% shot that it IS a 2 possession game matters.
By your logic a 7 point game isn't truly one possession because you might end up with a field goal on the possession.
Posted on 9/23/20 at 3:57 pm to monkeybutt
quote:I've made that argument earlier, and that's what it always comes down to, comparing a 100% miss to either a make or a chance to make it. Of course you take the latter.
The problem is that when you frame the argument this way, you've assumed a missed conversion in the early argument and then framed it against the conversion not having been done yet for your go for it late argument. You're not comparing apples to apples
The only way to truly make this comparison is really to not talk about 90% of what we've debated, it's to talk specifically about missing the conversion in both instances.
Posted on 9/23/20 at 4:22 pm to CocomoLSU
quote:
i.e. there isn't enough time for you to score three times (or two MORE times as the case may be).
If you assume this then it doesn't matter what you do. But I don't think that's a fair assumption. You could have a chance at an onsides kick.
The argument to me is very simple. Sometimes you get the two point conversion, in which case an 8 pt deficit is a one possession game. Sometimes you don't get the 2PAT, in which case the 8 pt. deficit is a two possession game.
You gain a strategic advantage by knowing the number of possessions you'll need to tie/win the game. If you kick the PAT first, then it remains unknown.
Posted on 9/23/20 at 4:48 pm to Madking
quote:
Regardless of which you choose you receive the information at the same time. Going for 2 first just adds extra and more volatile variables.
This makes 0 sense. The most volatile variable is the result of the two point conversion. That variable is included no matter what, first or second doesn't add it. By determining the outcome of it first you gain the information earlier and therefore gain a strategic advantage
Posted on 9/23/20 at 4:59 pm to icegator337
No it isn’t, how can going for 2 be pre determined before you go for 2? You’re moving the goalpost, first you said the advantage was knowing your strategy moving forward because you went for 2 first now you’re changing it to include going for 2 on the second possession which doesn’t apply to your initial argument. And again regardless which you choose you receive the info at the same time after the first possession.
This post was edited on 9/23/20 at 5:07 pm
Posted on 9/23/20 at 5:11 pm to shel311
I dunno if it’s a “hill to die on” because you’re not wrong. It’s just two different approaches but to kick first is the higher percentage play. Pat, then 2pt is a 95% then 45% strategy. The other approach is 45% then 22% so it’s clear going for 2 first is a much bigger gamble.
This post was edited on 9/23/20 at 5:12 pm
Posted on 9/23/20 at 5:14 pm to CocomoLSU
quote:Here's the discrepancy IMO, as I touched on in a previous post:
I feel like I am taking crazy pills with so many people arguing that going for two first is the right/smart play. It makes zero sense to me, and I'm generally a bright guy. All logic tells me to not go for two until you have to.
quote:
so why do it early? If you don't get it, the game is over
quote:In both of these examples, you're comparing not getting the 2pt conversion to the chance of getting it later. Think about both of the things you quoted, now to make it apples to apples, compare that to missing the 2pt conversion after the 2nd TD. That is the only way for these comparisons to make any sense.
If you go for the two first and don't get it, you've fricked yourself out of a chance to tie, whereas if you kick the XP early, it's still a one possession game and you can get the ball back with a chance to tie the game.
quote:Well out of 2 shitty spots to be on, I think anyone would take being down 9 with 5 minutes left over down to with 20 seconds left.
What is your argument of "I'd rather be down 9 with five minutes left than down 2 with 20 seconds left" mean"
quote:Again, I'm talking the reality of the situation which is the ONLY thing that matters. The reality, the facts based on the data, is the most likely scenario that would play out means being down 8 is being down 2 possessions. That's a fact, inarguable, it just is so. That fact matters a shite ton more than the theoretical idea that you might be able to tie the game with 1 possession.
(i.e. it's still a one-possession game despite what shel keeps arguing
Posted on 9/23/20 at 5:16 pm to shel311
So being down 7 is a 2 possession game?
Posted on 9/23/20 at 5:17 pm to Madking
quote:Can you link me to the data on these percentages?
The percentage play is to kick first and that’s been proven over and over in this thread
quote:Imagine thinking when you're down 8, that you are always 1 possession away from a tie game. Come join me in reality when you're ready
You have one guy saying 8 points isn’t a 1 possession game for crying out loud, it’s nonsense.
Posted on 9/23/20 at 5:21 pm to CocomoLSU
quote:If we're doing the thing where you only have 1 possession left and you're conceding right here in either case you lose if you miss, then it literally does not matter when you go for it.
In either case if you miss the 2PC, then you lose IMO
quote:But again...why? You just said it does not matter, so what is the benefit of prolonging if it's not adding to your win probability?
So prolonging it prolongs the chance of tying (and possibly eventually winning) the game, which is why you should not go for it until you absolutely are forced to.
But again, this conversation is better for, say, having 5-8 minutes or so left in the game IMO.
quote:Does the chart say to go for 2 when down 14 and you score to go down 8? I don't know, I'd guess no, but it surely is the play statistically.
But isn't "the chart" (that we always hear about from announcers) based on facts and statistics? And doesn't that chart always say to not go for two until you have to?
This post was edited on 9/23/20 at 5:22 pm
Posted on 9/23/20 at 5:24 pm to shel311
The percentages have been posted multiple times in this thread. No need to get snarky and defensive, your explanation for your two possession argument isn’t even an explanation it’s just a deflecting insult. 8 points is attainable in one possession, that’s just a simple fact, maybe your definition of reality needs to be checked.
This post was edited on 9/23/20 at 5:26 pm
Posted on 9/23/20 at 5:24 pm to monkeybutt
quote:Right, if the comparison is you assume you're missing the 2pt conversion after the 1st TD to a yet unknown result after the 2nd TD, then obviously everyone takes the ladder result. But that doesn't make any sense.
You are literally making an argument comparing a situation where you miss the 2 pt conversion if you go for it early with a situation where you haven't gone for the 2 pt conversion yet.
quote:Speaking of crazy pills, I feel like I'm taking crazy pills that people don't get that THIS is the only logical comparison to do with respect to this discussion.
If you want to argue if you should go for it after the first td or the second, you need to look at it from the perspective of if you make the 2 pt conversion in both situations vs. if you miss the 2 pt conversion in both situations.
Posted on 9/23/20 at 5:25 pm to Madking
quote:
you’re changing it to include going for 2 on the second possession
No, I never said this.
quote:
And again regardless which you choose you receive the info at the same time after the first possession.
this makes 0 sense
quote:
Madking
gotta be a troll...
Posted on 9/23/20 at 5:26 pm to icegator337
Yea you did and again you can’t make a reasonable argument so you resort to personal attacks. Very telling.
Posted on 9/23/20 at 5:26 pm to Madking
quote:How do receive the info of going for it after the 2nd TD and knowing whether you make/miss it after the 1st possession?
And again regardless which you choose you receive the info at the same time after the first possession.
Posted on 9/23/20 at 5:28 pm to Madking
quote:
is a 95% then 45% strategy. The other approach is 45% then 22%
Can you elaborate on this?
Kinda feels like you're missing an important piece here or doing the thing of only calculating what happens on a miss on the 1st and ignoring a miss on the 2nd.
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