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re: Retiring at 50 with $2MM in savings

Posted on 5/11/26 at 2:50 pm to
Posted by SquatchDawg
Cohutta Wilderness
Member since Sep 2012
20344 posts
Posted on 5/11/26 at 2:50 pm to
Did she address healthcare? Any retirement prior to Medicare needs to take this into account.
Posted by masoncj
Atlanta
Member since Jun 2023
798 posts
Posted on 5/11/26 at 3:24 pm to
She just listed $120k a year as a desired income example

But yes I think safe to say $25k a year for health care that include monthly premiums for a HDP and then the corresponding out of pocket till you hit your maximum exposure

I am counting on about $35k per year for medical insurance a year once I hit 50 in 7 years

Gonna suck but I guess I could drive a school bus or something if I get tired of paying that much out of pocket
This post was edited on 5/11/26 at 3:25 pm
Posted by So_Sez_My_X_Podna
Back Vacherie
Member since Jan 2024
31 posts
Posted on 5/11/26 at 3:27 pm to
I listened to Big_Money_Mo for financial advice. He made me a killing by suggesting oil stocks
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
139915 posts
Posted on 5/11/26 at 4:28 pm to
quote:

Did she make some specific assumptions that were unreasonable?
No. She didn't make unreasonable assumptions.

IMO though, "unreasonable" really is not the appropriate metric for assumptions regarding someone electively retiring at 50. Assumptions for retiring that early need to be "virtually unassailable" rather than "not unreasonable."

For example, if one retired at 50 in 1968, by 1982 the S&P was virtually exactly where it had been in 1968 (~110). Meanwhile, due to inflation, in 1982 it took $2.77 to buy what one dollar would have bought in 1968.

A repeat of that scenario (i.e., a portfolio worth ~1/3rd in real terms at 65y/o as it was at 50y/o) would absolutely destroy any of her assumptions. Is a repeat of that scenario likely? Paul Tudor Jones, and others say it is.


No big deal, except the dude in such a scenario could have continued to work to age 65, then retired, and he'd be golden. So banking on Erin Moriarity's assurances is far from risk free.
Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
41452 posts
Posted on 5/11/26 at 4:31 pm to
quote:

Did she address healthcare? Any retirement prior to Medicare needs to take this into account.



subsidized ACA plans can be cheap as hell
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
139915 posts
Posted on 5/11/26 at 4:36 pm to
quote:

subsidized ACA plans can be cheap as hell
Aren't we assuming $100K+ income though? That runs out of subsidy territory, doesn't it?
Posted by masoncj
Atlanta
Member since Jun 2023
798 posts
Posted on 5/11/26 at 4:38 pm to
With that income level, you will not qualify for subsidized ACA
Posted by TorchtheFlyingTiger
1st coast
Member since Jan 2008
3264 posts
Posted on 5/11/26 at 4:55 pm to
You could manage income to stay below ACA Subsidy cliff by spending down a mix of cash, taxable basis, and Roth contributions/conversions. The $120k annual spending isnt all MAGI. If coming from low risk cash equivalent bucket 1 (5-8yrs) per video most wouldnt be income for tax/ACA purposes.
Posted by RoyalWe
Louisiana
Member since Mar 2018
5142 posts
Posted on 5/11/26 at 5:12 pm to
I'm an extreme DIYer. I've been retired almost 2 years. I switched most of my "growth" portfolio to an "income" portfolio. I follow Jason Kelly's "Income Sig" plan. My assets have grown 57% over the past two years while I have withdrawn significantly more than 4% a year. His plan uses some of the same concepts, but in a different framework. It is an aggressive income plan and carries the risk of your assets losing significant value. Most people are unable or unwilling to do this. I am able to do it because my risk tolerance is high, my assets are large, and I have contingency plans if things were to go poorly.

There are two "buckets" in his plan. One is the Generator and the other is the Reserve. The Generator does exactly that. It generates income. It is a portfolio of three funds that you rote rebalance every quarter. Any dividends generated from these funds go into the Reserve. The Reserve is where you draw your income. It buffers risk, so it's in your best interest to have enough in the Reserve to handle downturned markets. The Reserve is also three funds that you rote rebalance every quarter.

There is a mechanism in the Generator where if the stock fund overperforms (via Value Cost Averaging), you are able to "skim" additional cash from the Generator to the Reserve. I have mentioned this before, but this "skim" in 2025 was significant (enough to buy multiple cars and pay for private school tuition in cash). In 2026, the extreme growth we've seen since end of 1Q2026 is projected to be a huge skim (even larger than those of 2025).

Before this model was put into place, it modeled to provide 18.5% of income per initial amount invested. To take a more conservative approach, guidance is to plan on 9% per initial amount invested. So, $1M = $90K per year of income. Almost half of that is through dividends and the other half is through "skim".

In short, my assets have almost doubled since retirement with my withdrawing over twice my "working" income over the last two years. Of course, everything is easy when it's working. The rote rebalancing after having terrific years provides a hedge against a poor market in the sense that assets in stock funds are moved to less volatile funds.

I agree with a lot of what Erin said in regards to people needing to think dynamically about how much they withdraw and when they withdraw it. I have always been a "fluid thinker" when it comes to money, but I find many intelligent people I know have no interest in managing their own money which is why FAs earn such a great living. I'd rather spend my money on me and mine and I wish more people took an active interest in finance.
Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
41452 posts
Posted on 5/11/26 at 7:00 pm to
100k income doesn’t mean 100k magi
Posted by 3D
NJ
Member since Sep 2013
1414 posts
Posted on 5/11/26 at 9:03 pm to
Where is all this money coming from... example says u want to spend $120k from age 50 until age 66. ($120k x 16 = $1.9) theres nothing left to put into the other buckets..... sometimes the market is flat what if there is a flat or down year
This post was edited on 5/11/26 at 9:19 pm
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
132038 posts
Posted on 5/11/26 at 9:32 pm to
Planning on getting to 5 million by 60
Posted by Gorilla Ball
Az via La
Member since Feb 2006
13317 posts
Posted on 5/12/26 at 5:52 am to
I was lucky
My dad sat down with me when I was around 18. I had just started college and got a warehouse job with a 401K and stock buying options.
I started doing about 12% and then eventually 15%- i never missed the money. But some months were tough for me.
I flunked out of lsu after my second semester.
Started working full time and increased it to about 18%.
Eventually went back to lsu and graduated and was probably saving about 12%.
I never purchased a new car always second hand and drove the crap out of it.
When Roths started in mid 1990’s I converted some investments and paid the taxes etc.
Up until the 2000’s I did ok salary wise but never over 6 figures.
In around 2009 my sales career bumped up and I was making around $100k and it steadily increased.
Sorry for the long story
But my point is that starting early and taking advantage of Father Time made all the advantages vs starting late and trying to catch up with saving more later in life.
Posted by evil cockroach
27.98N // 86.92E
Member since Nov 2007
9264 posts
Posted on 5/12/26 at 5:59 am to
quote:

Retiring at 50 with $2MM in savings
does this assume your kids are already done with college
Posted by DownshiftAndFloorIt
Here
Member since Jan 2011
72363 posts
Posted on 5/12/26 at 6:06 am to
quote:

does this assume your kids are already done with college


Do yall pay for your kids to go to college? I paid for it myself.

Not being a smartass. Genuinely curious. My wife and I were arguing about this the other day. She wants to plan for spending a mountain of money on kids college, and I dont want to plan to spend hardly any on it.
This post was edited on 5/12/26 at 6:08 am
Posted by masoncj
Atlanta
Member since Jun 2023
798 posts
Posted on 5/12/26 at 6:19 am to
The middle bucket is producing incoming that replenishes the first

The video explains the concepts if you watch it all the way through
Posted by kywildcatfanone
Wildcat Country!
Member since Oct 2012
140305 posts
Posted on 5/12/26 at 6:33 am to
You should easily be able to retire with $2m at 50.
Posted by igoringa
South Mississippi
Member since Jun 2007
12424 posts
Posted on 5/12/26 at 7:15 am to
quote:

Do yall pay for your kids to go to college? I paid for it myself.

Not being a smartass. Genuinely curious. My wife and I were arguing about this the other day. She wants to plan for spending a mountain of money on kids college, and I dont want to plan to spend hardly any on it.


It is good for you guys to argue over it now as opposed to then. Whatever way you decide, speaking as someone who has a college freshmen and HS senior, the process is a nightmare (unless your child had a in state lock they are interested in which is a dream lol).

I paid my own way but the wife and I agreed years ago when we moved to MS that it was likely the kids would go out of state and as part of the calculus of the move we factored in that we woudl pay for their eduction out of state.

Philosophically I can see it both ways in terms of paying or not and it is really a family specific decision.
Posted by TorchtheFlyingTiger
1st coast
Member since Jan 2008
3264 posts
Posted on 5/12/26 at 7:48 am to
I've always thought it important for college students to have some skin in the game. That can be paying part of their way, earned scholarships etc. Most the friends I had wash out were being funded by parents and didnt appreciate the consequences of failing out. I knew if I failed, I'd lose my scholarships be stuck with loans to pay off and because I was on ROTC scholarship would be forced to enlist.
Posted by Jax-Tiger
Vero Beach, FL
Member since Jan 2005
28026 posts
Posted on 5/12/26 at 7:57 am to
If you have the money, then go for it.

My wife and I decided that we would assist our children, if they needed help. We have 4 children, and 3 of them are triplets, so paying for the last three at the same time would have meant risking our retirement, and we decided that we would not do that.

When our children needed help, here and there, we gave it to them. Both my wife and I had jobs while we were in college and we told our kids that they would need to contribute as much as they could, as well. It worked out well for us, and they all have their degrees that are useful.

They say that the best present you can give your children is not to pay for their college, but to not be a financial burden to them in your last years. I tend to agree with that.
This post was edited on 5/12/26 at 7:59 am
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