Jax-Tiger

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I sold 90% of my position when I became convinced the (then) leadership team wasn't capable, so I don't look in on this thread but once every week or two - - - can anybody tell me, has there been any new senior level hires in the last 3 months?

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Yes, including a new CFO.

This executive team is inexperienced, no doubt about it. However, they have a unique opportunity to have historical success. They don't have any competition for the pure SP2 bonded graphene, so if this takes off, it will really take off.

Jensen Huang was the 30 year old original CEO of NVDA in 1993, and it took over 20 years before NVDA stock went above $1. Now he's some sort of genius. Do you think he looked competent for the first 15 years he was at the helm.

Kjirstin Breure took over as CEO of HGRAF and completely turned their business model on it's ear. She had the vision to completely change the outlook of the company. She has a masters in Materials Science and understands what they have. Visionaries that start companies are often not the best at executing and need to hire people who can execute their vision. HGRAF can't necessarily be choosy, because they don't have a lot of money. The people they have hired are working for an equity stake, meaning that they are banking on the company making it big. The recently added staffers include people who came from competitors and The GEIC, which is big, because these folks know graphene and wanted to come to HGRAF.

Kevin Bambrough isn't just an investor, he started a company (Turbostrata) that's sole purpose is to patent technology using graphene. I know he has discussed making super light-weight drones and heat-resistant shields for rockets. He's positioning himself to not only make money on HGRAF, but to be a customer after they bring their production facility online.

I invest in some companies because I believe in their executive team - NBIS, for example. I didn't invest in it for their superior administrative skills. I invested because they have a product that can change the world, and they have a patent moat around it.

It's not just Kjirstin, but their whole team, including Dr. Sorenson seem to be on board with the vision. So far, they have been very disciplined in holding the cards close to their vest. Other than Kjirstin slipping on a couple of deadlines (some of which they had no control over), they have done a good job of not leaking information about timing. It seems they have gone from talking about best case scenarios to under promising and possibly over delivering.

Finally, I'm going to say this: barring something totally unexpected, such as a revelation that their graphene quality is grossly overstated, they are going to announce a production facility, a gas contract, the NASDAQ listing, and quite possibly a deal with the DoW/DoE. When those things happen, the stock will go up into double digits. If they have any contracts of any size to go along with that, this stock could go "bonkers" as per Kevin Bambrough. I think they are delaying some of the announcements so that they can bundle them together and get the biggest possible spike in stock price that they can.

If it goes "bonkers", I want to be there when it happens.

This is not advice, it is simply my view of this stock. I don't view the executive team's relative lack of experience going into this as that much of a negative. That's what happens when you have a penny stock company, because you don't have rock stars lining up to be your CEO. I have been very impressed with the way Kjirstin has turned this company around and I believe she will prove to be quite good at the job in the long run.

Anybody else tempted to sell a bunch of shite and load up on NBIS right now?

Tempted to sell some July 17th puts with a strike price of $220.

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I just got into this game with 5 shares at $243.00. Hopefully I’m not catching a falling knife…

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This stock has it's moments, but the leadership team is Aces. This drop is market volatility, not anything to do with Nebius. We've went through this back in November. This company is on track to have $40B in revenue in 2-3 years. I think you're safe if you hold this long term.

BB88 has a post where he does a valuation on the stock price and I think he calculated over $600 within a year, based on projected revenue.

The other thing about NBIS that separates it from the others is that they have taken on very little debt during this growth period, especially when you compare it to peers like Coreweave. It looks like they might turn a profit soon, and that could be huge.

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I’m at $6 for 2000 shares and $4.50 for 1000 and still not concerned. Hope everyone feels better now.

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We knew about EPA before it happened and we know what happened afterwards. IMO, NASDAQ listing is just as big as EPA, and there are a number of other big announcements coming up that WE KNOW ABOUT.

Selling right now doesn't make sense to me.

I think they are going to need to get the stock price up as high as they can so they can raise more capital. They need money for Hyperions, R&D, Global expansion, staffing, and building costs. They have $42M on hand and that's a drop in the bucket.

That will be something that I plan to keep an eye on - what are there plans? How fast they intend to ramp up will tell us about the demand. Dilution may be part of those plans, but that could be a good sign, IMO. Growing this business by building a few Hyperions at a time and using the revenue to build more Hyperions will be a long and slow process.

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But…graphene WILL happen. I don’t think that’s in question. Whether HGRAF will happen is the gamble

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Been saying it all along. This company has derisked because they have approval to sell pure graphene. IMO, the question now is how much of a demand for the HGRAF product is there? I believe there will be demand, but will he be for 10's of thousands of tons, as Kevin Bambrough believes? Or is the product SOOO good, that the optimal load levels are too small to require that kind of volume?

The other risk IMO is time. Will the demand scale up quickly, or at a snail's pace?

We don't know the answer to either of those questions.

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I’ve been busy - did something happen since Monday? Or everyone just get tired of waiting at the same time?

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No news. I think the general downturn of the market and the rotation that is going on has a lot of people moving money around. I think a combination of short sellers, paper hands, and general market downturn/rotation has the stock going down.

Kevin Bambrough was taken by surprise. He said that he thought we would jump up to $15-20 before dropping below $4. I think he believes announcements are coming soon and that the market downturn happening first kind of took him by surprise. Hopefully, he is right about the announcements being imminent.

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They’re really going to have to thread the needle here it seems

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All of the major players for the company are working for lower salaries and have equity shares in the company. I don't think they care much about the price of the stock RIGHT NOW, if they see where this is going.

They may care enough about it right now to keep it above $4, I don't know. It could be that alternative NASDAQ listings are a pain in the butt and they don't want to go through that. The day is not over, it could still finish above $4. Hell, they could announce a contract, today, to bump it up. Who knows?

The question is not where this stock is today, but where it will be in 6 months to a year. If you believe in the stock, hang on to it. If you believe it's all a fairy tale and that it's going to fizzle out, then move on.

For now, I'm hanging on until this plays out.

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Also would it hurt to give a firm update on redomcile process and where they are to date and expected finish line date.

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I believe the answer is that it could hurt. I'm not an expert, so I could be wrong on this, but they are currently negotiating a settlement with the Canadian government on taxes owed, and one of the factors in that is the valuation of the company.

Lower valuation would lead to a lower tax bill. Given that they have limited resources, it would behoove them to wait until after they are done negotiating with Canada before making any announcements that would drive the stock price up significantly. They need every dime they have to build out their production facility.

This stock has been remarkably stable for a couple of months, given that none of the expected news has happened. After a while, the paper hands start selling and moving on.

I've seen it happen many times before - a stock will plunge right before it shoots up to an ATH. Start a sell off and it snowballs.

I have committed to holding my shares until the redomicile, NASDAQ listing, and factory build play out. Those are not my concerns. My concern is demand, once all that is done. I am confident that those things will happen this year and the stock price will go back up. I am less confident that HGRAF will have thousands of tons of orders ready to be filled. That is the "to the moon" scenario that we all want.

Can you please take your TDS and GTFO? You're bad enough on the poliboard where that shite belongs.