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Started By
Message
re: Housing: WTF?
Posted on 3/17/23 at 7:11 am to Milesahead
Posted on 3/17/23 at 7:11 am to Milesahead
quote:
Not sure I agree with your math. I use 30% for combined federal and state taxes. That alone yields less than 12k/month. Add in insurance and retirement and that continues to shrink. Increased house values also result in higher property taxes.
$1000 for feeding a family of 4 seems low as well
This. People are getting squeezed from every angle.
Fundamentals of many real estate markets are broken.
0
Posted on 3/17/23 at 7:16 am to ronricks
quote:
Total application volume rose 6.5% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.
Stop spreading misleading information.
Super short term indicator. Applications are still down significantly year over year. As a group mortgage bankers are making way less money than before.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 7:23 am to Wally Sparks
quote:
I wouldn’t put too much stock in Zillow’s estimates.
correct
Posted on 3/17/23 at 7:23 am to SaintsTiger
I recently asked some title attorneys how business was and it ranged from down 25-33% this year.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 7:26 am to The Baker
quote:
Being left with 2k-3k a month on 200k salary is pretty demoralizing.
But it ain’t “a struggle”. Many folks living on 3k a month net…
Posted on 3/17/23 at 7:39 am to Milesahead
quote:
I am not saying it can't be done but it wouldn't be as easy as you make it out to be
Correct. We have $1300 a month coming off the top just for health insurance. Sure we probably spend 600-700 a month on entertainment and maybe another couple hundred a month on stuff for the kids that comes up. I guess $4,000 note on $200k gross could be done if you don’t have hobbies or like to eat out or basically enjoy anything in life other than paying a house note. All the little incidentals of life add up quick with kids. All these clubs etc not to mention the unexpected expenses of home ownership.
I would wager most trying to live the middle class suburbia lifestyle are in debt up to their eyeballs and struggling with 6 figure household incomes. It’s totally possible to be poor and yet surrounded by nice shite.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 7:42 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
PITI on a 6% 480k mortgage (80% of 600k) is gonna be like 3800/month or so. About 23% of monthly gross income for 200k. That’s plenty affordable unless you are retarded with money elsewhere.
$3800/mo mortgage on $200k gross…
Posted on 3/17/23 at 7:48 am to SaintsTiger
quote:
Wouldn’t be surprised if you’re a real estate agent.
I work in IT. For heavens sake man some of you are so desperate for something bad to happen you can't even see straight.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 8:05 am to ronricks
quote:
I work in IT. For heavens sake man some of you are so desperate for something bad to happen you can't even see straight
Also wouldn’t be surprised if you bought in 2021 or 2022.
You’re the one wish casting by claiming super short term data indicates everything is rosy.
This post was edited on 3/17/23 at 8:06 am
Posted on 3/17/23 at 8:28 am to SaintsTiger
quote:
You’re the one wish casting by claiming super short term data indicates everything is rosy.
You posted the wrong Austin to support your ideas. A 10% drop from all time valuations isn't a 'crash'. There is an inventory shortage in most major metros in this country. I can't speak for rural or poor areas in states like Mississippi or Louisiana. Lets pretend I bought in 2021 or 2022 (I didn't) rates were still low and if you are staying in your home for an extended period of time what does it matter if the market 'crashes'? Most people are locked into super low rates even those who bought in 2022. You sound like one of the people on here who have been predicting a 'crash' for 4 years now and are mad it hasn't happened. Those people have an awful track record even if the market 'crashes' tomorrow. Until the supply side gets shaken out either by more building inventory or by massive job losses/economy not much is going to change. Wishcasting on here with ridiculous claims of someone being a real estate agent or buying in 2021 or 2022 isn't going to change that. I am in my forever home that I purchased in 2018 and refi'd in December 2020 to a 2.6. I'm not going anywhere and guess what? There are millions of Americans in the same position I am in which is going to keep supply low barring the catastrophic events you keep wishing for.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 8:31 am to PhiTiger1764
quote:
$3800/mo mortgage on $200k gross…
Not sure what's crazy about that. 23% of gross income spent on housing is less than most people spend on shelter.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 8:36 am to The Baker
quote:
Being left with 2k-3k a month on 200k salary is pretty demoralizing
Having 2-3k left over at the end of the month after all expenses (AND retirement savings) puts you in the top like 3 or 4 percent of Americans lmao.
That's insanely good compared to almost everyone in this country.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 8:57 am to ronricks
quote:
You posted the wrong Austin to support your ideas. A 10% drop from all time valuations isn't a 'crash'. There is an inventory shortage in most major metros in this country. I can't speak for rural or poor areas in states like Mississippi or Louisiana. Lets pretend I bought in 2021 or 2022 (I didn't) rates were still low and if you are staying in your home for an extended period of time what does it matter if the market 'crashes'? Most people are locked into super low rates even those who bought in 2022. You sound like one of the people on here who have been predicting a 'crash' for 4 years now and are mad it hasn't happened. Those people have an awful track record even if the market 'crashes' tomorrow. Until the supply side gets shaken out either by more building inventory or by massive job losses/economy not much is going to change. Wishcasting on here with ridiculous claims of someone being a real estate agent or buying in 2021 or 2022 isn't going to change that. I am in my forever home that I purchased in 2018 and refi'd in December 2020 to a 2.6. I'm not going anywhere and guess what? There are millions of Americans in the same position I am in which is going to keep supply low barring the catastrophic events you keep wishing for.
Dude if you think Lennar is doing fine and mortgage applications are skyrocketing, I don’t know what to tell you.
I said I “wouldn’t be surprised “ if you were an agent or recent buyer. Too many people out there are cheerleading toxic assets. Bad information like you’re spreading could really hurt people. Or at a minimum make them house slaves for the next 30 years.
Investor saturated markets like Vegas, Phoenix, etc. inventory may well pour into the market. When rental yields are less than Tbills, that’s a problem.
It was the wrong Austin. Initially. The correct data -over 1% year over year price declines- made my point even stronger.
Markets like California, Austin, Phoenix, and Vegas are seeing the most significant declines. Many more than 10%. Poor states won’t drop as much since the prices increased less. Higher floor.
This post was edited on 3/17/23 at 9:01 am
Posted on 3/17/23 at 8:57 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:
We get it - you want things to be bad.
We don’t want things to be bad we just want other people to suffer like we suffer. You know, equity
We work 80 hours a week and give up like half of it to taxes. By the time you go to the gym, wash clothes, and cook dinner you got like 30 minutes to yourself before you gotta go to bed to be ready for work the next day
Just once I want to get drunk off 40s on my porch on a Tuesday morning instead of going to work. I want to get 2 shopping carts full of lobsters and Cheetos and sugar cereal and not have to pay for it. I want to get an eitc check and go buy the new iPhone and a gold chain
What? Are you telling me that can never happen? Ok fine in that case I want the government to go out of business so that the free shite that I’ll never get will get cut off
Posted on 3/17/23 at 8:58 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Having 2-3k left over at the end of the month after all expenses (AND retirement savings) puts you in the top like 3 or 4 percent of Americans lmao.
That's insanely good compared to almost everyone in this country.
Thank you. This guy is saying he's demoralized, meanwhile I'm fricking thriving.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 9:07 am to el Gaucho
quote:
Just once I want to get drunk off 40s on my porch on a Tuesday morning instead of going to work.
I feel like you can accomplish this for like 1 pto day.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 9:10 am to SaintsTiger
quote:
Lennar is doing fine
I don't think they are in as bad of a situation as you are trying to paint on here. I do not own their stock and do not own a home built by them. I am not a real estate agent, I didn't buy in 2021 or 2022 nor a host of the other accusations you have made against me.
quote:
mortgage applications are skyrocketing
Nowhere have I said this. All I have said is inventory is still low (which other posters have told you also) and that a 10% decrease in prices from all time high valuations isn't a 'crash'. That's pretty much it. Nowhere have I told anyone on here to go and buy a home. Most people already did that in 2016-2021 which is why the inventory is so low. We need more hosing stock.
quote:
Phoenix, and Vegas
These markets have always lagged behind others and never fully recovered from 2008-2009.
Despite the picture you are trying to paint the market has remained strong and inventory is lacking and despite interest rates doubling prices have come down very little in most major metros. If the market crashes tomorrow you don't get any points when you have been predicting it for the last 4 years that's not how this works. You guys have been saying the same shite for years and you seem mad it hasn't happened
Posted on 3/17/23 at 9:21 am to JohnnyKilroy
Crazy to me as 23% of gross is over 30% of take home most likely. That doesn’t leave much wiggle room for living. But to each their own people must be making it work somehow in these high prices areas
Posted on 3/17/23 at 9:29 am to bayoudude
Ill say it, a 30-40% correction in the housing and auto market would make me smile quite large.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 9:38 am to ronricks
No need to play victim sir.
It’s going to take some time. Slow burn. Won’t crash tomorrow.
Vegas and Phoenix actually boomed during the pandemic. There you go asssuming false facts again to make your weak point.
quote:
These markets have always lagged behind others and never fully recovered from 2008-2009. Despite the picture you are trying to paint the market has remained strong and inventory is lacking and despite interest rates doubling prices have come down very little in most major metros. If the market crashes tomorrow you don't get any points when you have been predicting it for the last 4 years that's not how this works. You guys have been saying the same shite for years and you seem mad it hasn't happened
It’s going to take some time. Slow burn. Won’t crash tomorrow.
Vegas and Phoenix actually boomed during the pandemic. There you go asssuming false facts again to make your weak point.
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