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re: What are your expectations for McMahon’s third season?
Posted on 3/7/24 at 10:35 am to Bert Macklin FBI
Posted on 3/7/24 at 10:35 am to Bert Macklin FBI
quote:
We are inarguably better than we were a year ago and if he can keep that progress going next year then we are in a good place.
Is it inarguable? Our OOC was worse. We played a much weaker conference schedule and all but 2 of our wins were against the bottom six. The two "good" wins we had were not as good as our best win last season. We still don't defend and are not even competitive against tournament contenders.
In truth we are only slightly better than last season, we just benefited from a much weaker schedule.
2
Posted on 3/7/24 at 10:46 am to Bert Macklin FBI
quote:
I disagree. The expectations are what they are. It’s CMM’s job to field a roster to meet those expectations
I guess I should have clarified and said record-wise. Not all schedules are made equally. LSU could have an equal or just slightly better record next season, but have a MUCH better season in terms of postseason play. Or they could have a better W-L record and miss the NCAAT again.
I do agree though that being seriously in the hunt for a NCAA Tournament bid should be the minimum level of expectations. The only caveat is we don't know what next year's roster will look like. While there is no indication today it will happen, what if LSU's roster gets unexpectedly gutted?
Look at Vanderbilt last season. They get red-hot in the second half of SEC play (8-1) to finish 11-7; reach the Semi-Finals of the SEC Tournament; get snubbed for the NCAAT, but go to the NIT and win two games.
Things look encouraging for the next season as they are set to return 7 of their top 8 scorers....Then 4 of those guys transfer. All of whom were in line to be starters or play big minutes.
Posted on 3/7/24 at 10:52 am to tom
quote:
We played a much weaker conference schedule and all but 2 of our wins were against the bottom six. The two "good" wins we had were not as good as our best win last season.
This is absolute BS. They may have had a tougher schedule last year, but you refer to our results against the “bottom 6”.
Last year, they were 1-7 against the “bottom 6”. Actually bottom 7 because we were DFL.
This year, they are 6-2 against the “bottom 6”.
I guess it looks less impressive because we are middle of the pack in SEC now, but to act like it’s not that big of an improvement is absurd.
Posted on 3/7/24 at 10:58 am to tom
quote:
Is it inarguable?
I think so
quote:
Our OOC was worse
From a record standpoint, yes. But this year's OOC schedule was much tougher than last seasons
quote:
We played a much weaker conference schedule and all but 2 of our wins were against the bottom six. The two "good" wins we had were not as good as our best win last season.
I do agree that this year's conf schedule was weaker because LSU had the benefit of playing Georgia and Vanderbil 2x, while LSU's permanent 2x opponents, Arkansas and A&M, were worse than expected. But last year LSU rarely beat anyone is SEC play. Good or bad. This season they will likely finish with 7 more conf wins. I don't think you can say that is a "slight" improvement.
quote:
We still don't defend.
Last night was probably LSU's worse defensive game of the season. But the data unequivocally shows LSU has been a MUCH better defensive team this season. That's not to say LSU is a "good" defensive team (they aren't). But they've improved there.
quote:
not even competitive against tournament contenders.
They beat Kentucky, beat South Carolina on the road, and had a flubbed shot at the end to tie Florida on the road. I'm not saying it was a great season by any means, or even "good". But they're certainly more than "slightly" better.
Again, I'm not saying improved = good. But they are noticeably improved.
Posted on 3/7/24 at 10:58 am to thunderbird1100
Very good points and agree with you wholeheartedly.
I think I misread your initial stance but the overall point being upgrade at all costs if there is an upgrade I firmly agree with. Still think there is some juice with Collins and Stewart to be contributors but that’s hope and a prayer. If there are guys looking to get in the boat with skins on the wall absolutely agreed take them and have the tough conversation with the other kids
I think I misread your initial stance but the overall point being upgrade at all costs if there is an upgrade I firmly agree with. Still think there is some juice with Collins and Stewart to be contributors but that’s hope and a prayer. If there are guys looking to get in the boat with skins on the wall absolutely agreed take them and have the tough conversation with the other kids
Posted on 3/7/24 at 10:59 am to Alt26
quote:
what if LSU's roster gets unexpectedly gutted?
Then CMM either has to murder it in the portal to replace the guys he loses or he will lose his job. Losing players doesn't make the expectations of where the program should be in year 3 any less than they are now. He either meets expectations or we find another coach who can.
With that said, I believe that he will retain the core of this roster and won't lose anyone that we don't expect to lose. I also think he will further develop the key guys and am hopeful he will add a few key pieces in the portal. But like you said, we have to see it all shake out.
Posted on 3/7/24 at 11:53 am to Bert Macklin FBI
I want LSUMBB to be top 4 in the SEC and make the NCAA. That's the same goal I have every season except year One of a HC's tenure.
I do believe that MM will NOT be terminated in 2025. SW will give him a 4th season, rightly or wrongly.
I want CMM to have success because that is best for the LSUMBB program.
I do believe that MM will NOT be terminated in 2025. SW will give him a 4th season, rightly or wrongly.
I want CMM to have success because that is best for the LSUMBB program.
Posted on 3/7/24 at 12:05 pm to ykevin25
quote:
We better be dancing.
I’m a big MM stan, but yea this should be the expectation for year 3. There’s probably some grey area depending on how ‘25 season plays out, but that’s the goal.
Posted on 3/7/24 at 12:05 pm to LSUNWO1988
quote:
It’s scary how many fans are cool with keeping this dude if he doesn’t make they tourney in year 3
From reading the Posts a couple of weeks ago, I expect Woody to extend his contract a couple more years. After all, according to real LSU Basketball Fans, this is his first season.
Posted on 3/7/24 at 12:26 pm to tigerbait2010
I believe they over-exceeded this season, so getting much more than two or so conference wins more than will be achieved this year is likely their ceiling.
Posted on 3/7/24 at 12:29 pm to Gus007
quote:
After all, according to real LSU Basketball Fans, this is his first season.
I mean Woodward himself said that’s how hes evaluating it
Posted on 3/7/24 at 12:35 pm to tigerbait2010
NCAA Tournament or bust.
A program the likes of LSU should never go 3 years without an NCAA tournament appearance.
A program the likes of LSU should never go 3 years without an NCAA tournament appearance.
Posted on 3/7/24 at 12:37 pm to tigerbait2010
Year 3 ncaa tournament
Posted on 3/7/24 at 12:49 pm to Gus007
quote:
After all, according to real LSU Basketball Fans, this is his first season
Then what was last season?
Posted on 3/7/24 at 12:51 pm to LSUNWO1988
“Year 0”
Regardless if you consider next year as year two or three, I think NCAAT is a reasonable expectation
Regardless if you consider next year as year two or three, I think NCAAT is a reasonable expectation
Posted on 3/7/24 at 1:36 pm to Bert Macklin FBI
quote:
I think year 3 needs to be NCAA tournament or at least a 20 win season that barely gets left out.
I am not of the opinion that we need to fire or anoint CMM right now. We are inarguably better than we were a year ago and if he can keep that progress going next year then we are in a good place. What we can't have happen is taking a step back or being the same team we are this year. We need to continue to show improvement.
Agree with your analysis. I will add that anyone making a big deal out of improving from 2-16 in the SEC is sort of funny. I would go a step further maybe that if LSU doesn't make the NCAA tourney, if I was the AD, there would have to be a pretty darn good reason/excuse. Maybe a Dale Brown type measles epidemic might be good enough. 
Posted on 3/7/24 at 1:51 pm to slutiger5
quote:
baker
quote:
You gotta get another one of those guys to be your big
The next one needs to include a pair of hands
Posted on 3/7/24 at 1:51 pm to TigerFan91
quote:
I mean Woodward himself said that’s how hes evaluating it
That's a nice soundbite to publicly show support for you coach, but I PROMISE you "year 0" will be part of any evaluation. Woodward has shown the willingness to move on from a coach quickly if the results aren't up to standard. He (unnecessarily) gave Orgeron a significant raise following the 2019 season. Less than 2 seasons later Orgeron was fired. Paul Mainieri had Super Regional appearances sandwiching the cancelled 2020 season. The first of which just two years after an appearance in the National Championship series. Didn't matter. He was (respectfully) nudged into retirement.
Basketball doesn't have the level of expectations the football or baseball programs have. But there is a level of expectations. Particularly when you have to consider basketball is (or should) be your second highest revenue generating sport. A bad basketball program, if nothing else, is a missed financial opportunity for your athletic department.
If this time next season we are looking at a program with similar or worse results than this season, I think Woodward is going to strongly consider making a change. It hasn't been in his nature at LSU to allow poor, or even just average production to continue simply to avoid a year or two of paying a buyout. He's going to say all the right things publicly to support McMahon (as he should). But McMahon is on the clock. And what constitutes "success" next year isn't a .500 conference record and hoping to get an invite to the consolation postseason.
Posted on 3/7/24 at 1:55 pm to BigPerm30
From what I've heard from someone close to Stewart is he's coming back. Or at least he plans on coming back. They feel healthy he can contribute. Now I'm concerned about ward leaving. Heard he has plans to leave after the season. At least he has said that once. Can always change his mind.
Posted on 3/7/24 at 1:58 pm to Alt26
Okay. Doesn’t really matter what we think if that’s how he’s evaluating it that’s how he’s evaluating it
His expectations are the only ones that matter at the end of the day. If the coach is continuing to progress what year it is is irrelevant. He’s obviously committed to McMahon with the contract he gave so he’s going to give him enough rope
His expectations are the only ones that matter at the end of the day. If the coach is continuing to progress what year it is is irrelevant. He’s obviously committed to McMahon with the contract he gave so he’s going to give him enough rope
This post was edited on 3/7/24 at 2:00 pm
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