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Posted on 7/22/26 at 1:29 pm to MrKnowItAll
quote:
points is points.... Based on my analytics .... 90% of the time it comes back to bite you late in 70% of the games when you're 2 points behind.
Take the points early.
IMO, Kiffin has come back closer to the mainstream in that I don't think he gambles as much as he did a couple of years ago when sometimes he would go for it on his own 35. Ironically, other coaches have met him in the middle by going for it more than they did in the past.
What irritates more than "chasing first downs" is "chasing points." Those are the guys who try to either tie the game early in the 3rd quarter after a TD or try to get within a FG with loads of time left in the game. And more times than not going for 2 and failing leaves you like 4 points behind with 2 minutes to play when kicking the PAT in the 3rd quarter would leave you only a FG behind. Oh, and the SUPPOSED chart that people use to justify that I believe does not have the time left in the game factored in. Just like the chart that has you going for first downs on 4th doesn't consider field position, the opponent's defense, etc.
Posted on 7/22/26 at 2:10 pm to hashtag
I cringe when I hear "data driven decisions." Like you, I believe it should be, "data informed decisions."
Posted on 7/22/26 at 2:11 pm to NewBeginnings
quote:
You never know how valuable those free points maybe later in the game.
Games are higher scoring than they used to be. THAT’S why you need touchdowns. Field goals don’t make as much of an impact in 34-31 games as they used to in 14-10 or 24-21 games
Posted on 7/22/26 at 2:33 pm to NewBeginnings
Take the points early, play the situation late.
Posted on 7/22/26 at 2:41 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:I can score a TD 50% of the time, or score 3 points 90% of the time?quote:What if you can score 3 points 90% of the time?
If you can score a TD fifty percent of the time it’s certainly worth it.
That's easy. Go for the touchdown.
No question about it.
Posted on 7/22/26 at 2:43 pm to NewBeginnings
quote:
If Lane loses some games for us in a similar manner, I could see some criticism from the fan base.
We all know that Lane is an aggressive coach. Why criticize now? Anytime it's 4th and 1 or 4th and 2 inside the 35 he's prolly going.
Posted on 7/22/26 at 3:51 pm to NewBeginnings
quote:
How do you feel about passing up Field Goals
In the 1st half i would never pass on points. Outside of very specific situations anyways
Posted on 7/22/26 at 3:51 pm to NewBeginnings
It also depends on who your kicker is. If you got a guy whos nailing 90% of the under 40 FG, then go ahead and take the automatic points. If your kicker is shaky at all, going for it makes alot more sense
Posted on 7/22/26 at 4:24 pm to NewBeginnings
BK had a horrible feel for the game.
I think Lane may have a tad bit better feel for it idk
You have to have a feel for the game and what you think your team can accomplish. Also, circumstances mean something i.e. how did we look on the first 3 downs, did we get stuffed etc...
I think Lane may have a tad bit better feel for it idk
You have to have a feel for the game and what you think your team can accomplish. Also, circumstances mean something i.e. how did we look on the first 3 downs, did we get stuffed etc...
Posted on 7/22/26 at 4:45 pm to NewBeginnings
quote:
I tend to be old school in the sense that I think you should almost always kick in the first half (exception being when you are within the 5 yard line). You never know how valuable those free points maybe later in the game. Second half- going for it doesn’t bother me as much.
You are being guided by superstition. Just as you never know how valuable those three points might be, you also don’t know how valuable those extra four points would be.
There is no one answer for each game and situation. A lot depends on how high scoring you expect the game to be. It also depends on what you think the chances are of converting and of making the field goal.
In general, I like the idea of going for it a lot more than coaches used to. If it’s fourth and one at the 50 you should go for it in 2026, and they should have gone for it in 1950. The reason they didn’t is that football coaches are fairly stupid.
Posted on 7/22/26 at 6:14 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:
Analytics should be used as a tool to make a decision, not the decision-maker.
Lane tends to use it as a decision maker. He is pretty extreme when it comes to using analytics to make decisions
Be prepared
I know Lane will go for it a lot and I’m prepared.
I also know the Rant melts will be glorious.
Posted on 7/23/26 at 3:49 pm to Penrod
quote:
it’s fourth and one at the 50 you should go for it in 2026, and they should have gone for it in 1950.
We not comparing modern playbooks and QB play to what it was in 1950…
Posted on 7/23/26 at 4:01 pm to NewBeginnings
Kick FG on the opening drive. With a competent offense now, we will have many other chances.
Feel of the game on the others. (I hate saying analytics)
Feel of the game on the others. (I hate saying analytics)
Posted on 7/23/26 at 4:45 pm to chalmetteowl
quote:
We not comparing modern playbooks and QB play to what it was in 1950…
I wasn’t comparing any of that. It’s a matter of odds. In 1950 the chances of making a fourth and one are greater than 50%. Therefore a 4th and one at the 50 results in a greater chance of the offensive team getting the ball at the 50 are greater than the chances of giving the defensive team the ball at the 50. And the alternative is a punt and change of possession, which is better for the defensive team. Therefore they should have gone for it.
Posted on 7/23/26 at 5:31 pm to NewBeginnings
quote:
How do you feel about passing up Field Goals
He will have the LSU Fans FULL SUPPORT until he turns the ball over on downs the 1st time.
Posted on 7/23/26 at 6:54 pm to NewBeginnings
quote:
2017 (FAU): 39 attempts (Ranked No. 1 nationally)
2018 (FAU): 44 attempts (Ranked No. 1 nationally)
2019 (FAU): 22 attempts (Tied No. 57 nationally)
2020 (Ole Miss): 33 attempts (Ranked No. 3 nationally)
2021 (Ole Miss): 49 attempts (Ranked No. 1 nationally) with a ~63.3% conversion rate
2020–2025 Span (Ole Miss): Converted roughly 62.4% of total fourth-down tries (123 of 197) under his general direction. [1, 2]
Posted on 7/23/26 at 7:38 pm to NewBeginnings
I'm not a fan of going for two early. It too often seems to bite people in the end.
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