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re: Why do y’all care so much about stars and recruiting rankings?
Posted on 12/22/22 at 10:10 pm to LatinTiger30
Posted on 12/22/22 at 10:10 pm to LatinTiger30
The teams with the best players play for nattys
0
Posted on 12/22/22 at 10:13 pm to LatinTiger30
5-stars are more likely to make game changing plays that can change the course of a game or a season, like Jalen Carter's sack/fumble in the Tennessee game and Ringo's INT in the Tennessee game.
Obviously it takes more than 5 stars to win championships, but 5-stars are more likely to make game changing plays and wreck shite.
As a Georgia fan only more recently have I realized this.
Obviously it takes more than 5 stars to win championships, but 5-stars are more likely to make game changing plays and wreck shite.
As a Georgia fan only more recently have I realized this.
This post was edited on 12/22/22 at 10:14 pm
Posted on 12/22/22 at 10:13 pm to LatinTiger30
The stats don't back you up. Stars mean something. They don't mean everything, though. And melting over a single recruit is just not logical
Posted on 12/22/22 at 10:20 pm to LatinTiger30
quote:
Chase was the #1 WR taken despite sitting out an entire season and was NFL offensive rookie of the year. IDC, what the so called recruiting said, Case was the top WR coming out of HS.
you are using 20/20 hindsight. The rankings aren’t absolute predictions, they are just rankings at a point in time. Chase was a top 100 player a high 4* prospect that’s an elite level player with the ability to make the NFL which exactly what happened This post was edited on 12/22/22 at 10:22 pm
Posted on 12/22/22 at 10:20 pm to trussthetruzz
quote:
LSU developed chase and Burrow enabled him. He was by no means the “best prospect”
Maybe he had a shite QB in High School...look at Boutte in College! That said...if JD makes the jump Burrow did.. I'm gonna win some money because I am betting on him to win the Heisman!
Posted on 12/22/22 at 10:24 pm to ronk
quote:
You are naming the outliers. Stack up the 4 and 5 stars on one side and the 2 and 3’s on the other and see what side had more.
It’s better to sign true elite talents. There’s no doubt about that.
But the services over rate a lot of players and under rate others.
No doubt they were right about Campbell and Perkins, but they under rated Jones and Taylor. They over rated Elias Ricks, Jordan Toles and Demeurvil.
It’s my opinion, but Orgeron started recruiting stars; thus a number of busts. He did a poor job of evaluating kids.
Posted on 12/22/22 at 10:29 pm to LatinTiger30
easiest way is this.
the more stars = the more likely to be drafted into the NFL.
so a 5* is more likely to end up a drag table player than. 2*.
is this a guarantee?
of course not.
but it’s a relatively accurate predictor.
the more stars = the more likely to be drafted into the NFL.
so a 5* is more likely to end up a drag table player than. 2*.
is this a guarantee?
of course not.
but it’s a relatively accurate predictor.
Posted on 12/22/22 at 10:34 pm to FLObserver
I’m not saying there’s no correlation with the top ranked teams and on field performance. There are a lot of supporting players the help elevate the team, but it’s usually one or two guys that are extra special. For us it was Joe, Chase, Jetts, but they were not all in the same recruiting class. There is no reason to freak out if we miss on one player. There a chance said player could be a breakout star, but the odds are he will be a regular Joe. Many 5* simply don’t pan out for a variety of reasons. It’s funny A&M had such a great class last year, but we pulled the best player in the State of Texas and one time A&M recruit in Harold Perkins.
Posted on 12/22/22 at 10:48 pm to LatinTiger30
quote:
Why do y’all care so much about stars and recruiting rankings?
Really, it comes down to a handful of players in each class that make up the starting 22. Looking at Bama 2018 recruiting ranked #5 by 247 their best players were Surtain, Waddle, Slade Bolden.
In contrast, LSU’s 2018 class ended up ranked 15, but our best players were T. Marshall, Chase, Rosenthal, Clark, D Lewis, J. Jenkins, so LSU despite being ranked lower tied or an argument can be made we had a better class. We definitely had the best prospect in Chase.
For the exact opposite reason Vanderbilt does not care about them. Hence, their program.
Posted on 12/22/22 at 10:50 pm to LatinTiger30
quote:
Really, it comes down to a handful of players in each class that make up the starting 22.
You realize that recruiting rankings (at least 247) already take this into account, right?
The highest-rated players for each team are weighted more heavily in the class scores. So if two teams have the same number of commits and the same average rating, the team with the more “top-heavy” class will be ranked higher.
Posted on 12/22/22 at 10:53 pm to doubleb
I agree that they do in certain cases over/under rate. A lot depends on who camps and who doesn’t, measurables, etc. in O’s case he recruited the stars and had no backup. There is nothing wrong with recruiting the stars if they all sign with you. Without doing any research give me the top guy at his position in each recruiting class over the last 4 years. I bet I beat any team out there. What makes CBK special is last years 5 star CB commits 30 minutes before Ricks commits.
ETA: O couldn’t evaluate talent. The 4/5 stars had talent. He had no idea what to do when they didn’t commit. He got lucky with CEH being from BR and Jett’s being a family tradition. How Burrow fell in his lap I don’t know. When they left he went for the big dogs and came up empty.
ETA: O couldn’t evaluate talent. The 4/5 stars had talent. He had no idea what to do when they didn’t commit. He got lucky with CEH being from BR and Jett’s being a family tradition. How Burrow fell in his lap I don’t know. When they left he went for the big dogs and came up empty.
This post was edited on 12/22/22 at 11:02 pm
Posted on 12/22/22 at 10:56 pm to slackster
quote:
Because the numbers make it obvious - 5 stars are substantially more likely to be impact players and make the NFL, followed by 4 stars, then 3 etc.
Stars certainly matter in the broad sense. In the macro it’s a good system, but in the micro it’s not that valuable.
The idea that someone can tell the difference in the No. 100 and 250 player is absurd.
They can make a good guess, and over the course of 1,000 players, they may have a successful average. But individually, no.
This post was edited on 12/22/22 at 10:57 pm
Posted on 12/22/22 at 11:00 pm to Bjorn Cyborg
So one would say sign as much of the top talent that’s available and be able to correctly evaluate the rest. For instance make sure you sign Campbell and Perkins but make sure you sign Mason Taylor.
Posted on 12/22/22 at 11:05 pm to doubleb
quote:
So does a kid with 2 stars and 3 stars like Jefferson and Burrow.
What in the actual frick? Burrow was a high 4 star coming out of high school. He was the #8 ranked dual threat QB. Jefferson was only ranked a 3 star because he was a grade risk. He was much higher ranked at different times and with different services.
Quit talking out of your arse.
Posted on 12/22/22 at 11:07 pm to ronk
quote:
So one would say sign as much of the top talent that’s available and be able to correctly evaluate the rest. For instance make sure you sign Campbell and Perkins but make sure you sign Mason Taylor.
Yes. Stars are a great way to judge a class, but not an individual player.
On average, highly rated classes will be successful, but the failure rate on individual players is huge.
Posted on 12/22/22 at 11:09 pm to doubleb
Burrow was a 4 star
Posted on 12/22/22 at 11:13 pm to LatinTiger30
I think people get way too worked up about the rankings and stars also. It’s all media driven. People are way too caught up in star ratings and rankings. They get caught up and can’t differentiate that program evaluation and needs overrule profit driven clickbait services. No offense to those guys. I trust in BK and this class that they are putting together.
This is different and I’m finally thankful. frick the rankings. If LSU is top 10 and fills needs where is needed and skill players are added that score points on any given drive then it was a success.
This is different and I’m finally thankful. frick the rankings. If LSU is top 10 and fills needs where is needed and skill players are added that score points on any given drive then it was a success.
This post was edited on 12/22/22 at 11:17 pm
Posted on 12/22/22 at 11:20 pm to Le Tenia
Yes, that’s why they fail so often at individual evals.
The idea that “offers” is a part of the evaluation and ranking process builds bias into the equation, and is incestuous.
True talent evaluation would not take offers into consideration, but the ranking services don’t have the resources and most are reporters and not actual scouts.
They do a good job on the elite 5-stars that anyone can identify. But their accuracy plummets after that.
The idea that “offers” is a part of the evaluation and ranking process builds bias into the equation, and is incestuous.
True talent evaluation would not take offers into consideration, but the ranking services don’t have the resources and most are reporters and not actual scouts.
They do a good job on the elite 5-stars that anyone can identify. But their accuracy plummets after that.
This post was edited on 12/22/22 at 11:21 pm
Posted on 12/22/22 at 11:22 pm to Le Tenia
Star rankings for individual recruits may make a difference, although there's not much difference between the 5 star players and 4 star players.
What does NOT make a difference is who gets the #1 recruiting class. There's minimal difference between the top five recruiting classes year in and year out. The last five champions (LSU, Georgia, Alabama, Clemson) have all had top five recruiting classes over those year. But no one team had the #1 class every year. In fact, LSU never had a #1 class in that time span. So, I think the most important thing is to have a class at or near the top five AND address your needs with those classes, rather than just racking up 5 star players.
What does NOT make a difference is who gets the #1 recruiting class. There's minimal difference between the top five recruiting classes year in and year out. The last five champions (LSU, Georgia, Alabama, Clemson) have all had top five recruiting classes over those year. But no one team had the #1 class every year. In fact, LSU never had a #1 class in that time span. So, I think the most important thing is to have a class at or near the top five AND address your needs with those classes, rather than just racking up 5 star players.
Posted on 12/22/22 at 11:27 pm to lsualum96
And develop the players and have low attrition.
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