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Started By
Message
Posted on 2/8/21 at 6:59 am to NorthEndZone
The ICON has been consistent in showing near all time record cold in Texas. It has been the most consistent model for this outbreak. I am going with a blend of GFS and ICON for my forecast. I expect the GFS to start going wacky though and the Euro to take its place over the next 48 hours. This looks like single digits for the I-20 corridor with isolated sub zero temps in rural areas of N and NE TX this weekend. In NW TX I expect much below 0 temps.
Posted on 2/8/21 at 7:21 am to East Coast Band
quote:
That'll bust some pipes around here
It would be a shite show for sure if that played out. Especially in in SWLA where there are quite a few homes gutted from the hurricanes and lots of exposed pipes.
Posted on 2/8/21 at 7:39 am to aggiegeog
The forecast services are having one heck of a time sorting this out. I live in North Texas and next Sunday ranges from 22/11 to 47/17 and a high of 26 (NOAA).
Don't enjoy the cold but am more preoccupied about moisture
Don't enjoy the cold but am more preoccupied about moisture
Posted on 2/8/21 at 7:47 am to East Coast Band
So, if I am understanding this, there's a very good chance it's going to be cold as a witch's titty in the BR area for a number of days, but the chance of snow is remote.
Posted on 2/8/21 at 7:53 am to udtiger
Kinda, the models are still all over the place, it really depends on how long the moisture stays around once the cold air hits us.
Posted on 2/8/21 at 8:00 am to HurricanesArentReal
Was planning to spend the weekend on Grand Isle but that island is COLD when it’s cold! Any idea when these models will get into agreement? They are alll over the place
Posted on 2/8/21 at 8:37 am to udtiger
My phone forecast says snow Monday Tuesday and Wednesday here in the Ms delta.
Posted on 2/8/21 at 8:41 am to BallsEleven
quote:
It would be a shite show for sure if that played out. Especially in in SWLA where there are quite a few homes gutted from the hurricanes and lots of exposed pipes.
That's when you shut the water off at the shutoff and just open every fixture and hope for the best.
Posted on 2/8/21 at 8:46 am to TigerstuckinMS
Local mets here in BR (WAFB this morning) don't appear to be buying this, showing highs in 50's, lows in mid and upper 30's for weekend.
LINK /
LINK /
Posted on 2/8/21 at 8:57 am to Tigah D
None of the forecasts are going to reflect it until both the EURO and GFS are in agreement again.
It’s like some of you have never read a weather thread before.
It’s like some of you have never read a weather thread before.
Posted on 2/8/21 at 9:02 am to Tigah D
quote:
Local mets here in BR (WAFB this morning) don't appear to be buying this, showing highs in 50's, lows in mid and upper 30's for weekend.
None of the local mets in nola are even mentioning anything..neither is TWC or Accuweather or any other major weather outlets.
This thread was started 5 days ago about weather that was 2 weeks away
Posted on 2/8/21 at 9:31 am to aggiegeog
All models are showing DFW getting smacked with 2 rounds of snow!!!!
Yeeehhhawww
I sure as hell aint driving on any elevated road (which is practically all of them in NTX)
Yeeehhhawww
I sure as hell aint driving on any elevated road (which is practically all of them in NTX)
Posted on 2/8/21 at 9:39 am to 50_Tiger
So when will we have a good handle on this forecast?
Posted on 2/8/21 at 9:44 am to purple18
another couple days from now
Posted on 2/8/21 at 9:47 am to purple18
Probably will have a firm forecast on temperature by Wednesday. Guessing they won’t know how the precipitation will play out until later in the week
Posted on 2/8/21 at 9:54 am to purple18
It is all a complicated mess which is why the forecasts are sticking with milder temps than what many of the models are showing (some have been pretty inconsistent).
I think tomorrow or wednesday is when you would see any changes only if we start getting some consistency across the board.
Example, the ICON spit out some records lows yesterday with S La getting near single digits. The 12z now shows some more realistic numbers in the low 20s but also has us getting snow on Monday.
Really the only consistency has been the GFS and ICON showing sub freezing temps. Euro isn't quite onboard with that and the Canadian has been all over.
I think tomorrow or wednesday is when you would see any changes only if we start getting some consistency across the board.
Example, the ICON spit out some records lows yesterday with S La getting near single digits. The 12z now shows some more realistic numbers in the low 20s but also has us getting snow on Monday.
Really the only consistency has been the GFS and ICON showing sub freezing temps. Euro isn't quite onboard with that and the Canadian has been all over.
Posted on 2/8/21 at 9:58 am to BallsEleven
Models were originally in lots of agreement then a large divide opened between the GFS and the Euro, with the GFS showing bitter cold and the EURO showing 70 degree weather.
Now it appears the EURO is cooling things down a little but still nowhere near the bitter cold the GFS is showing. The Canadian is showing very cold but nothing we don't experience every couple years or so but the difference is it shows quite a bit of ice (although Wednesday the 17th now).
The GFS is showing bitter cold but starting on Saturday night and lasting though the middle part of the following week.
The GFS has been the most consistent in showing bitter cold but it has indeed pushed it back (along with other models) a few days. When models begin to push back events, it usually doesn't pan out.
Saturday at noon
Sunday morning
Sunday at noon
Monday morning
Monday at noon
Tuesday morning
Tuesday at noon
Wednesday morning
Wednesday at noon
ICON doesn't go any further as of this update.
Now it appears the EURO is cooling things down a little but still nowhere near the bitter cold the GFS is showing. The Canadian is showing very cold but nothing we don't experience every couple years or so but the difference is it shows quite a bit of ice (although Wednesday the 17th now).
The GFS is showing bitter cold but starting on Saturday night and lasting though the middle part of the following week.
The GFS has been the most consistent in showing bitter cold but it has indeed pushed it back (along with other models) a few days. When models begin to push back events, it usually doesn't pan out.
Saturday at noon
![](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020806/gfs_T2m_scus_23.png)
![](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2021020800/gem_T2m_scus_24.png)
![](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2021020812/icon_T2m_scus_43.png)
Sunday morning
![](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020806/gfs_T2m_scus_26.png)
![](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2021020800/gem_T2m_scus_27.png)
![](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2021020812/icon_T2m_scus_49.png)
Sunday at noon
![](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020806/gfs_T2m_scus_27.png)
![](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2021020800/gem_T2m_scus_28.png)
![](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2021020812/icon_T2m_scus_51.png)
Monday morning
![](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020806/gfs_T2m_scus_30.png)
![](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2021020800/gem_T2m_scus_31.png)
![](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2021020812/icon_T2m_scus_57.png)
Monday at noon
![](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020806/gfs_T2m_scus_31.png)
![](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2021020800/gem_T2m_scus_32.png)
![](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2021020812/icon_T2m_scus_59.png)
Tuesday morning
![](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020806/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_33.png)
![](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2021020800/gem_T2m_scus_35.png)
![](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2021020812/icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_60.png)
Tuesday at noon
![](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020806/gfs_T2m_scus_35.png)
![](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2021020800/gem_T2m_scus_36.png)
Wednesday morning
![](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020806/gfs_T2m_scus_38.png)
![](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2021020800/gem_T2m_scus_39.png)
Wednesday at noon
![](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020806/gfs_T2m_scus_39.png)
![](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2021020800/gem_T2m_scus_40.png)
ICON doesn't go any further as of this update.
This post was edited on 2/8/21 at 10:01 am
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