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re: Louisiana Ice Storm Thread *Winter Storm Warning*

Posted on 2/7/21 at 3:33 pm to
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42539 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 3:33 pm to
quote:


They won't really know how cold it will be for us until the air gets into the US observations points. Canadian model flipped from snowpocalypse to much warmer, Euro not consistent.... It seems snow/ice events are much more difficult to forecast than a line of storms



They will start getting a better idea as things evolve, but snow is extremely hard to predict down South. It’s tough along the Atlantic too.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 4:26 pm to
quote:

They won't really know how cold it will be for us until the air gets into the US observations points.


That's not the problem. Canada is actually a developed country with plenty enough weather stations. The swings in the models have to do with the cold air being stopped from diving down early in the week with a little bit of ridging in the SW USA.

The Canadian model holds it in the west and drops the cold hammer over the western US vs the GFS still driving it down into the eastern US just a few days later than expected when this thread started. The latest Euro splits it, with the most of the central and eastern US (but the gulf coast states) getting a lobe and the NW getting another one.

We don't know, because the models are having a bitch of a time resolving where the cold air should go and when.



Posted by Lsuhoohoo
Member since Sep 2007
102297 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 4:45 pm to
Annnnd its gone again
Posted by BigB0882
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2014
5422 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 5:00 pm to
It’s Lucy with the football all over again. Happens every year. This one seemed closer to than most.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 5:11 pm to
quote:

Annnnd its gone again


It's there, just Louisiana is on the warm side of the low and it's a couple of days later.

When this cold dives down, it's going to have a storm spin up on the edge. There will probably be an ice storm with it to the north and some snow into the Ohio valley. It's just a matter of when and how far south the cold air pushes.

Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
74955 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 5:14 pm to
quote:

Duke

Have you heard about/used the Satsquatch app? I just saw TornadoTitans put out a video about it. I checked out the online version, and it doesn't seem like much without the "Pro" version. I think it is $5 in the app store, and has alot of Satellite and Mesoscale stuff.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 5:15 pm to
No I haven't but I will. Its a bitch getting Mesoscale data from the spc on the phone.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
74955 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 5:36 pm to
quote:

No I haven't but I will. Its a bitch getting Mesoscale data from the spc on the phone.

Tornado Titans was pushing it as a good tool for chasers in addition to RadarScope.
Posted by OchoDedos
Republic of Texas
Member since Oct 2014
39822 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 5:50 pm to
Our in house WX guys in their long range notes are talking about an overriding event along the GC from far south Texas to the Florida Panhandle on or around the 15th . Believe it when I see it.
Posted by KTrain915
Baton Rouge LA
Member since Feb 2010
1044 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 6:01 pm to
Can you explain what you mean by this?
Posted by SEC 440
Member since Jan 2021
283 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 6:06 pm to
I think he is saying their weather person believes a low will develop (moisture) traverse along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida. In doing so it will deposit moisture into the frigid air resulting in winter precipitation
Posted by Johnny Carson
Member since Jul 2010
1307 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 6:12 pm to
Posted by OchoDedos
Republic of Texas
Member since Oct 2014
39822 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 6:26 pm to
quote:

Can you explain what you mean by this?

A layer of very cold air near the surface overridden by a layer of moisture laden warmer air. The precipitation falling does not freeze until it reaches the cold layer at the surface resulting in sleet and freezing rain. Ice storm
Posted by BallsEleven
Member since Mar 2019
6163 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 8:20 pm to
Apparently the 18z EURO is on board with the GFS.

Makes for an interesting 0z run.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50535 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 8:46 pm to
Yea I don’t have access to it right now. I paid for access to it the last two hurricane seasons and if this continues to show up in the models, I may pay for it again in a couple days. Apparently it too is now pushing the arctic air and ice down to us.

The next week is going to be fun model watching.
Posted by Cool Hand Luke
Member since Oct 2008
2037 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 8:50 pm to
We are 6 days from the original Armageddon. Why are the models still in disarray? Isn't a forecast 6 day in advance somewhat correct?
Posted by KTrain915
Baton Rouge LA
Member since Feb 2010
1044 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 8:51 pm to
Thanks that makes sense.
Posted by LSUJuice
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
18049 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 8:52 pm to
quote:

When this cold dives down, it's going to have a storm spin up on the edge

What causes this to happen?
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50535 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 8:53 pm to
quote:

We are 6 days from the original Armageddon. Why are the models still in disarray? Isn't a forecast 6 day in advance somewhat correct?

For the love of God... models are NOT forecasts.
Posted by BallsEleven
Member since Mar 2019
6163 posts
Posted on 2/7/21 at 8:54 pm to
Yeah I wanted to get it but $7/mo is a little much for something I would use so little.
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