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re: Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?
Posted on 9/22/20 at 3:06 pm to Nobelium
Posted on 9/22/20 at 3:06 pm to Nobelium
quote:
If you decide to go for two and fail, then the game's over right there because you're not getting the ball back twice with 3 minutes left in the game.
It just depends on how much time is left. 10 minutes left? Yeah, whatever, it doesn't really seem like it matters that much in the long run because you're probably gonna get the ball back enough times to tie/take the lead anyway.
It’s like I’m taking crazy pills.
I’d you fail on the 2 point conversation AT ANY POINT, you’ll need another possession to win. Knowing that information as soon possible is better for your chance of winning. Plain and simple.
2
Posted on 9/22/20 at 3:18 pm to slackster
You might want to look at the 538 article top page 3
Posted on 9/22/20 at 4:32 pm to BRIllini07
Your argument is purely speculative and impractical. Why would you bring another possession into play when you don’t have to? When you’re behind you’re supposed to be creating outs and extending opportunity not doing the exact opposite.
This post was edited on 9/22/20 at 4:34 pm
Posted on 9/22/20 at 4:54 pm to slackster
If assuming the success of the 2 point conversion, then technically it doesn't matter when you try it.
If we're assuming the failure of the 2 point conversion - which is kinda what this whole thread is about, I suppose - then I'd always rather fail with time left to adjust.
Failing on the 2nd TD seems infinitely more "deflating" since you probably just flat out lose if you miss it.
Fail on the first TD and your probability of win drops like a stone, sure, but at least you know what you need now.
I think we as fans always assume it's deflating because we feel deflated and we project that onto paid professionals.
If we're assuming the failure of the 2 point conversion - which is kinda what this whole thread is about, I suppose - then I'd always rather fail with time left to adjust.
Failing on the 2nd TD seems infinitely more "deflating" since you probably just flat out lose if you miss it.
Fail on the first TD and your probability of win drops like a stone, sure, but at least you know what you need now.
I think we as fans always assume it's deflating because we feel deflated and we project that onto paid professionals.
This post was edited on 9/22/20 at 4:55 pm
Posted on 9/22/20 at 4:59 pm to NawlinsTiger9
Also, I haven't seen anyone mention this, and I doubt it has come up often, but it's worth adding to this thread I think.
If you're down 15, and the 2-pt conversion on the first TD is successful, then you now have the option to win the game with another 2-pt conversion. (especially if there's a situation where a penalty moves the ball closer to the goal line as we saw last night)
You go from a 50% chance to tie the game if you kick the EP on the first TD and save the 2 pt. conversion for the second TD, to a ~50% chance to WIN the game if you convert the 2 pt play successfully the first time.
That's a significant factor, IMO.
If you're down 15, and the 2-pt conversion on the first TD is successful, then you now have the option to win the game with another 2-pt conversion. (especially if there's a situation where a penalty moves the ball closer to the goal line as we saw last night)
You go from a 50% chance to tie the game if you kick the EP on the first TD and save the 2 pt. conversion for the second TD, to a ~50% chance to WIN the game if you convert the 2 pt play successfully the first time.
That's a significant factor, IMO.
This post was edited on 9/22/20 at 5:00 pm
Posted on 9/22/20 at 5:21 pm to NawlinsTiger9
Might wanna recalculate those odds. Going 2 for 2 on consecutive 2 point conversions probly isn’t a 50% proposition. You guys aren’t looking at this situationally, you’re just assuming optimum conditions for what your inclined to favor and worst case scenarios for the contrary. When you’re trailing your objective is to increase opportunity and by betting it all on the immediate you’re cutting those opportunities in half.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 5:41 pm to Madking
quote:it’s around 23-25% to make both of them
Going 2 for 2 on consecutive 2 point conversions probly isn’t a 50% proposition.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 5:50 pm to chalmetteowl
Sounds right and don’t get me wrong if someone’s style is to play it that way it’s not incorrect, it’s an opinion. My comments were more about the OP pretending it’s an overwhelmingly statistically sound and supported strategy when it isn’t.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 6:14 pm to Roger Klarvin
quote:
You want to know as early as possible whether you need two or three scores.
Doesn’t kicking the extra point solve that problem easily?
2 scores. 7, then 8. Done and done.
This post was edited on 9/22/20 at 6:17 pm
Posted on 9/22/20 at 6:18 pm to NawlinsTiger9
Another way to look at it:
If your down 15 in the 4th your facing long odds no matter what - so no set of events makes you ‘likely’ to win.
You have to attempt at least 1 two point conversion.
If you save it for the end, you have to make it (acceptable failure rate = 0).
If you go for it early, the acceptable failure rate is a number higher than 0. It’s not much higher than zero, but it’s not zero. It does mean that your ensuing possession you’re in hurry up mode and wanting to score before the 2 minute warning and still hold onto a time out.
In another quirk, going for it early and missing is your best chance at winning in regulation since there is no playing for the tie at that point.
If your down 15 in the 4th your facing long odds no matter what - so no set of events makes you ‘likely’ to win.
You have to attempt at least 1 two point conversion.
If you save it for the end, you have to make it (acceptable failure rate = 0).
If you go for it early, the acceptable failure rate is a number higher than 0. It’s not much higher than zero, but it’s not zero. It does mean that your ensuing possession you’re in hurry up mode and wanting to score before the 2 minute warning and still hold onto a time out.
In another quirk, going for it early and missing is your best chance at winning in regulation since there is no playing for the tie at that point.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 6:57 pm to Madking
quote:
Going 2 for 2 on consecutive 2 point conversions probly isn’t a 50% proposition.
Successfully completing the first one doesn’t inherently lower your chances of completing a second one, though.
They are two independent outcomes.
The post above mine explains it really well.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 7:10 pm to NawlinsTiger9
Yes you’re right and if that’s how it came off I apologize. Going for 2 is the lower pct play so you take the more given outcome first. You’re playing uphill and vs the clock so first priority should be to keep yourself in the game as long as possible. You don’t wanna gamble until you have to when you’re margin for error is smallest. You’re going to be down a possession regardless but you bring a second possession into play if you go for 2 first.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 7:11 pm to Roger Klarvin
You want information early so that you can play accordingly. Going for two first gives you The information you need. It’s without a doubt an advantage
Anyone who disagrees just doesn’t understand game theory
Anyone who disagrees just doesn’t understand game theory
Posted on 9/22/20 at 7:39 pm to icegator337
Regardless of which you choose you receive the information at the same time. Going for 2 first just adds extra and more volatile variables.
This post was edited on 9/22/20 at 7:41 pm
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:14 pm to Nobelium
quote:How does this make sense to you? The odds of making it don't go up on the 2nd TD.
makes perfect sense.
You're down by 15 when you score a touchdown with 3 minutes left or whatever, so you're now down by 9. You can kick the extra point or go for two. If you kick the extra point you're now down by 8, which means the game's not over and all you have to do is get the ball back and you have the possibility of tying it
quote:Ok, so the only way to make that comparison right there a fair one is to then tell me the odds of winning when you go for 2 and fail after the 2nd TD.
If you decide to go for two and fail, then the game's over right there because you're not getting the ball back twice with 3 minutes left in the game
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:18 pm to Nix to Twillie
quote:No, not at all.
Doesn’t kicking the extra point solve that problem easily?
This debate, as we've seen countless times in this thread, comes down to people comparing missing the 2pt conversion to not missing the 2pt conversion which makes no sense.
Any comparison of missing and going down by 9 can only logically be compared to missing after the 2nd TD and being down 2 .
quote:Again, you're assuming a make on the 2nd try and comparing it to a miss on the 1st TD.
2 scores. 7, then 8. Done and done
7 then 6....thats 3 possessions.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:52 pm to shel311
No that isn’t the debate and to pretend that a 95+% play is equal to a 50-50 or even 60% chance play is just completely misguided.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:54 pm to Roger Klarvin
Pretty strongly disagree with this one.
Go for 1 to get it to a one possession game. Anything can happen then as the pressure is on the team ahead and the trailing team has momentum.
You go for 2 the first time and
- if you make it, it's still a one possession game. Same deal
- if you miss it, it's a 2 possession game with lost momentum and they can call plays differently on the other sideline and it's a 2 possession game. The risk of this is not worth the reward of cutting it to 7.
Go for 1 to get it to a one possession game. Anything can happen then as the pressure is on the team ahead and the trailing team has momentum.
You go for 2 the first time and
- if you make it, it's still a one possession game. Same deal
- if you miss it, it's a 2 possession game with lost momentum and they can call plays differently on the other sideline and it's a 2 possession game. The risk of this is not worth the reward of cutting it to 7.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:54 pm to Madking
quote:2 point conversions are converted at like a 45% clip
equal to a 50-50 or even 60% chance play
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:55 pm to chalmetteowl
I was trying to be as accommodating the the other side as possible. Saw an article from 2018 that said conversions had spiked at 60%.
This post was edited on 9/22/20 at 8:57 pm
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