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Started By
Message
re: Louisiana COVID-19 - April 2, 2020 Update: 9,150 cases - 51,086 tested - 310 dead
Posted on 4/2/20 at 12:45 pm to TigersSEC2010
Posted on 4/2/20 at 12:45 pm to TigersSEC2010
I wonder how many parishes are going to use this jump in numbers to justify a curfew. I still haven’t seen any sheriff explain how a curfew at night helps stop the spread.
1
Posted on 4/2/20 at 12:47 pm to RougeDawg
quote:
Good numbers. Despite a large number of old test results coming in:
- The rate of increase for hospitalization has been decreasing (flattening) over the past three days.
- The rate of increase for ventilators has been decreasing (flattening) over the past three days.
But all people see is that the positive cases are rising. WELL DUH.
Posted on 4/2/20 at 12:47 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
A lot more cases, but everything else looks steady to improved
Everything else (hospitalizations, vents, deaths) lags positive tests. We will likely see a spike in those numbers in the next 5-10 days.
Posted on 4/2/20 at 12:47 pm to DomincDecoco
quote:
DomincDecoco
I think the case numbers will balance out over the coming days. God knows how old the tests dumped today really are. We are still not even close on deaths which is awesome.
This post was edited on 4/2/20 at 12:47 pm
Posted on 4/2/20 at 12:47 pm to DomincDecoco
Are htese charts from the poli stalk stickied thread?
Posted on 4/2/20 at 12:48 pm to Dizz
A curfew at night could help to reduce the amount of calls the police need to respond to, I guess. There are a lot of dots to connect between that and helping with the spread of the virus though.
The more immediate help is that it just reduces the amount of time people can be in contact with others outside of their homes, which could help slow the spread. (If it's abided by, which we know as realistic people that it won't be)
The more immediate help is that it just reduces the amount of time people can be in contact with others outside of their homes, which could help slow the spread. (If it's abided by, which we know as realistic people that it won't be)
Posted on 4/2/20 at 12:48 pm to TigersSEC2010
quote:
He will have to cancel LSU's football season
He needs to not cry wolf again.
Posted on 4/2/20 at 12:50 pm to NOFOX
quote:
Everything else (hospitalizations, vents, deaths) lags positive tests. We will likely see a spike in those numbers in the next 5-10 days.
I'm not certain that we'll see a massive spike. A lot of those tests are old.
We are now over ten days since they began reporting hospital numbers and we still have only seen very steady increases. If we were to see massive spikes, we should've already started seeing them by now.
Posted on 4/2/20 at 12:50 pm to NOFOX
quote:
Everything else (hospitalizations, vents, deaths) lags positive tests. We will likely see a spike in those numbers in the next 5-10 days.
That's because test results are behind, not vice versa. People that are already hospitalized for days are just now getting their test results back.
Its hospitalization then test result, not result then hospitalization.
Posted on 4/2/20 at 12:51 pm to NOFOX
quote:That would make sense if the results of the tests were not actually lagging behind themselves, which they are
Everything else (hospitalizations, vents, deaths) lags positive tests
so it is the opposite
This post was edited on 4/2/20 at 12:52 pm
Posted on 4/2/20 at 12:51 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
According to JBE by April 6th every vent and every hospital bed will be 100% utilized
For this to happen we would need to see a dramatic reversal in the current rate of change trend for hospitalizations.
Using an average ROC of the last week or so, it is more like April 12 when we would run out of beds and that assumes no one leaves the hospital. If the down trend continues in hospitalizations, then the date will keep getting pushed back.
Posted on 4/2/20 at 12:52 pm to NOFOX
quote:
Everything else (hospitalizations, vents, deaths) lags positive tests. We will likely see a spike in those numbers in the next 5-10 days.
As stated by JBE, a good portion of today's case numbers were catching up on a testing backlog - so they should be irrelevant to the hospital/coroner data which (I believe) is compiled independently
Posted on 4/2/20 at 12:53 pm to Chad504boy
quote:
death rate lowered to 3.3% i think
I'm guessing that you can't actually know the death rate until the final outcome is known for the positive diagnoses. This would also be true for all the undiagnosed cases, however many or few that may be.
Posted on 4/2/20 at 12:55 pm to TigersSEC2010
I found this to be interesting. LDH is now adding Vent, ICU, and Inpatient Bed use/availability to the daily numbers.
Posted on 4/2/20 at 12:57 pm to CajunTiger92
quote:
If the down trend continues in hospitalizations, then the date will keep getting pushed back.
BUT my question is will they keep moving the quarantine period back as well??? Or should they?
Posted on 4/2/20 at 12:58 pm to TigersSEC2010
got it ..
This post was edited on 4/2/20 at 1:00 pm
Posted on 4/2/20 at 1:02 pm to tiger91
The ICU and bed information doesn't really help as that is not just COVID19 patients but all patients. I guess it helps to understand capacity but isn't all that useful for tracking on a dialy basis.
Posted on 4/2/20 at 1:03 pm to tiger91
quote:
Are htese charts from the poli stalk stickied thread?
shouldnt be...these are mine that I keep out of curiosity only
unfortunately, its like tracking a hurricane: people see a jump up or a drop in the deaths or total cases and either "the end is neigh" or " open it up now"
the answer is neither...stay the course and trust the scientists
thinking tomorrow is the last day I do it
This post was edited on 4/2/20 at 1:04 pm
Posted on 4/2/20 at 1:05 pm to NOFOX
quote:not really. Think about it
Everything else (hospitalizations, vents,
Posted on 4/2/20 at 1:06 pm to TigersSEC2010
quote:
I think the case numbers will balance out over the coming days. God knows how old the tests dumped today really are. We are still not even close on deaths which is awesome.
careful though, God knows how many are still waiting to be added :)
Needs to be looked at from a wider lens...great about deaths though: better /quicker medicine and treatment I guess
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