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Started By
Message
re: Louisiana COVID-19 - April 2, 2020 Update: 9,150 cases - 51,086 tested - 310 dead
Posted on 4/2/20 at 1:12 pm to TigersSEC2010
Posted on 4/2/20 at 1:12 pm to TigersSEC2010
The data should show the date the test was administered not the date the results are received.
2
Posted on 4/2/20 at 1:19 pm to SippyCup
quote:ithat would give insight into turnaround time vgor test, that's about it. It won't tell you as much as you think it will, considering people testing the same day are at different stages of the disease.
The data should show the date the test was administered not the date the results are received.
Posted on 4/2/20 at 1:19 pm to TigersSEC2010
+141 hospitalizations = not so great as they could potentially end up being on ventilators. However, only +17 on ventilators is a huge positive. These are the only two numbers that matter as far as staving off the overloading of the health care system. Deaths are tragic, but they will follow the hospitalization/ventilator numbers.
This post was edited on 4/2/20 at 1:20 pm
Posted on 4/2/20 at 1:22 pm to Maderan
quote:
The ICU and bed information doesn't really help as that is not just COVID19 patients but all patients. I guess it helps to understand capacity but isn't all that useful for tracking on a dialy basis.
Capacity of hospitals is EVERYTHING. That is the more pressing threat here, not the mortality rate of the virus.
Posted on 4/2/20 at 1:24 pm to ashy larry
quote:
I'd like to see the numbers as well, but I think he's referring to the fact that recovery numbers are inaccurate b/c we aren't testing for it. It's easy to see when someone tests positive, checks in the hosptital, goes in ICU, gets on a vent, dies, or leaves the hospital. BUT no one really knows when someone is 'recovering' b/c we are sending people home to recover. I don't think they aren't going back to get an 'all clear' test.
This makes more sense. And I guess I did miss the point initially. Though. It does beg to question whether there will be any recoveries reported. My guess would be no, since they can’t accurately count them.
Which helps spread more fear porn.
Posted on 4/2/20 at 1:24 pm to Unknown_Poster
And we are a long way from overloading our hospitals.
Posted on 4/2/20 at 1:25 pm to Phantom17
quote:
It does beg to question whether there will be any recoveries reported. My guess would be no, since they can’t accurately count them.
Which would make a huge difference in tracking this. Instead it looks like we have all these active cases. The amount of active cases could be a fraction.
This post was edited on 4/2/20 at 1:26 pm
Posted on 4/2/20 at 1:26 pm to TigersSEC2010
quote:
We are now over ten days since they began reporting hospital numbers and we still have only seen very steady increases. If we were to see massive spikes, we should've already started seeing them by now.
I'll feel better at 15 days....people are still stubborn as hell
This post was edited on 4/2/20 at 1:29 pm
Posted on 4/2/20 at 1:27 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
And we are a long way from overloading our hospitals.
As long as the daily numbers of people to ventilators remains fairly static/trends downward, yes. As of right now, though, the LDH chart shows only about 200ish ventilators available in Region 1 (Orleans, Jefferson, etc.) And that's where the virus is focused.
(In before, lol, frick New Orleans.)
quote:
Which would make a huge difference in tracking this. Instead it looks like we have all these active cases. The amount of active cases could be a fraction.
I would assume the adjust the hospitalization/ventilator numbers daily and don't just keep adding numbers because a rolling total would be meaningless. Adjusting the number of those testing positive but not requiring hospitalization isn't particularly relevant aside from statistical curiosity. You have to assume people not being hospitalized are fine and will self-resolve within a week or so. Similarly, I don't even pay attention to total reported cases. First, it obviously doesn't reflect the number of people who actually have the virus. Second, as mentioned, those testing posting but not being hospitalized aren't putting pressure on the health care system.
This post was edited on 4/2/20 at 1:32 pm
Posted on 4/2/20 at 1:28 pm to Unknown_Poster
There were 175 available last week.
Posted on 4/2/20 at 1:31 pm to DomincDecoco
quote:
I'll feel better at 15 days....
I feel pretty good today. I'll make you a deal. You stay home and let the rest of us get back to work. We won't bother you and you extend us the same courtesy. Good?
Posted on 4/2/20 at 1:32 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
Which would make a huge difference in tracking this. Instead it looks like we have all these active cases. The amount of active cases could be a fraction.
Agreed.
Posted on 4/2/20 at 1:34 pm to tigerinthebueche
quote:
I feel pretty good today. I'll make you a deal. You stay home and let the rest of us get back to work. We won't bother you and you extend us the same courtesy. Good?
I am at work
edit: i you may have misinterpreted my post.
people are stubborn to go in to hospitals...Ill feel better in 5 more days that the line of critical vents is staying where its at and not about to spike (the yellow line on the graph)
This post was edited on 4/2/20 at 1:40 pm
Posted on 4/2/20 at 1:34 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
There were 175 available last week.
The increase is most likely because they are receiving some from the feds and vendors. Which is obviously good but not necessarily indicative of people coming off ventilators either by death or rehabilitation. People with the virus that require a ventilator are usually on one for two to three weeks per the numbers being tracked in New York (which has the benefit of a larger sample size).
My major point is: tracking active but un-hospitalized cases is largely irrelevant, yet people seem obsessed by it.
This post was edited on 4/2/20 at 1:38 pm
Posted on 4/2/20 at 1:49 pm to Unknown_Poster
quote:
The increase is most likely because they are receiving some from the feds and vendors
I would imagine it is almost exclusively this.
It shows that our hospitals are increasing capacity faster than demand.
Posted on 4/2/20 at 2:08 pm to Unknown_Poster
quote:
However, only +17 on ventilators is a huge positive.
You subtract the dead, subtract those that recovered, and then you have to add the new ones overnight, which is enough to offset all the dead and recovered, and still result in a net +17. It isn't terrible, but it isn't as good as it may seem at first glance.
Posted on 4/2/20 at 2:14 pm to fightin tigers
I'm encouraged...encouraged by the capacity of the hospital beds and vents right now, and encouraged by what I'm seeing in the hospital where the bulk of my hospital practice is. We are holding our own right now, and I feel a bit better every day. One thing that is encouraging at least here is that the hospital admin in conjunction with the medical staff is continually planning and staying on top of the curve. Among the medical community there is a ton of free exchange of information and discussion which is very refreshing.
I'm gonna say this here because I'll tell everyone that will listen - the nursing staff, house keepers, maintenance, etc. are workhorses. They are doing what they do with amazing morale here, and that is good to see.
I'm gonna say this here because I'll tell everyone that will listen - the nursing staff, house keepers, maintenance, etc. are workhorses. They are doing what they do with amazing morale here, and that is good to see.
Posted on 4/2/20 at 2:17 pm to DomincDecoco
April 9-11.
Those dates will tell us a lot.
Those dates will tell us a lot.
Posted on 4/2/20 at 2:22 pm to Unknown_Poster
quote:
Capacity of hospitals is EVERYTHING. That is the more pressing threat here, not the mortality rate of the virus.
Here's a projection of the peak for hospital resources being used by state. Louisiana's is April 9th.
Projected Peaks
Posted on 4/2/20 at 2:22 pm to TBoy
quote:
However, only +17 on ventilators is a huge positive.
You subtract the dead, subtract those that recovered, and then you have to add the new ones overnight, which is enough to offset all the dead and recovered, and still result in a net +17
That's a good point. So realistically you have +17 ventilators and -37 now open due to dead, so truly that's a +54 new on vents today then yesterday right?
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