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Started By
Message
re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/26/16 at 6:39 am to Hold That Tiger 10
Posted on 8/26/16 at 6:39 am to Hold That Tiger 10
Just tune out the noise and listen to rds, baytiger, geaux medic, and supernovasky.
The problem is nobody knows where it is going yet. It's all just best guesses based upon models and conditions, and those change every single time a model is run because this disturbance is so deformed. If it turns into a depression or tropical storm then predictions will narrow down some.
The main takeaway right now is: Its not a concern for the next 48ish hours.
The problem is nobody knows where it is going yet. It's all just best guesses based upon models and conditions, and those change every single time a model is run because this disturbance is so deformed. If it turns into a depression or tropical storm then predictions will narrow down some.
The main takeaway right now is: Its not a concern for the next 48ish hours.
0
Posted on 8/26/16 at 6:39 am to Hold That Tiger 10
Just listen to Peej......
And expect the opposite.
And expect the opposite.
This post was edited on 8/26/16 at 6:40 am
Posted on 8/26/16 at 6:41 am to Hold That Tiger 10
Just save yourself the trouble and check back Sunday. As of right now there is a less likely chance than before that it will develop but still a chance. If anything happens it more than likely won't be anytime soon. it's pretty much just starting over.
Posted on 8/26/16 at 7:13 am to rds dc
What's the latest?
We still dead?
We still dead?
Posted on 8/26/16 at 7:16 am to tankyank13
Posted on 8/26/16 at 7:18 am to tankyank13
quote:
What's the latest?
We still dead?
I think some more models are supposed to come out soon
Posted on 8/26/16 at 7:27 am to TheArrogantCorndog
For the layperson:
Looks like the little cloud swirl from yesterday is gone but the large-scale wave is still there. Will not develop until this weekend at the earliest. Any track or intensity forecasts are going to be really tough until then. Still a 40% chance this thing never forms.
Looks like the little cloud swirl from yesterday is gone but the large-scale wave is still there. Will not develop until this weekend at the earliest. Any track or intensity forecasts are going to be really tough until then. Still a 40% chance this thing never forms.
Posted on 8/26/16 at 7:27 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Impossible northern jump from Euro
There actually isn't anything wrong with that jump. A piece of an upper level through off the NE coast cuts off and then drifts back to the SE under the ridge. It also develops a bit of a surface reflection as it rotates down. This doesn't show up very well in the free Euro panels but its there.
A weakness develops in the red circle allowing whatever form 99L is in to curve back to the NE rather rapidly. By Monday at 12z, there is an ULL sitting over the SC coast and that wasn't there on past runs.
This post was edited on 8/26/16 at 7:29 am
Posted on 8/26/16 at 7:27 am to LakeViewLSU
quote:it's had a wispy lower level circulation that's pretty much impossible to pick out at night, but the first few frames of visible makes it look like it's still northeast of Cuba, near Inagua. Some convection is starting to flare up right around there so something might get going now that shear seems to by dying down.
Those 3 look like they are still assuming a LLC north of Cuba but I don't think it's there any more. It looked like it crashed into Cuba and will probably be gone
Posted on 8/26/16 at 7:30 am to rds dc
also keep in mind that it's still not a closed low in that frame, so any "jump" in the models could simply be the center displacing and reforming.
Posted on 8/26/16 at 7:33 am to baytiger
quote:
also keep in mind that it's still not a closed low in that frame, so any "jump" in the models could simply be the center displacing and reforming
Exactly, I was just illustrating how that Euro run may have pulled that off. Always lots of uncertainty associated with an upper level feature like that. Then add in that no one knows the what or where for 99L at that point. Still highly problematic for anyone trying to forecast 99L.
Posted on 8/26/16 at 7:41 am to rds dc
Latest update: only a 20% chance of cyclone formation in the next 48 hrs. 
Bad news is if this does develop into a hurricane the majority of computer models have it hitting New Orleans. This is my dreaded gut feeling too.
It seems like it is all or nothing.
Bad news is if this does develop into a hurricane the majority of computer models have it hitting New Orleans. This is my dreaded gut feeling too.
It seems like it is all or nothing.
This post was edited on 8/26/16 at 7:42 am
Posted on 8/26/16 at 7:44 am to baytiger
quote:
it's had a wispy lower level circulation that's pretty much impossible to pick out at night, but the first few frames of visible makes it look like it's still northeast of Cuba, near Inagua. Some convection is starting to flare up right around there so something might get going now that shear seems to by dying down.
Looks like 12z was in the vicinity of that area.
Posted on 8/26/16 at 7:44 am to rds dc
The first few visible images show that the low level spin appears to be around 22.5N 74.5W with convection being sheared from it.
Posted on 8/26/16 at 7:47 am to rds dc
Posted on 8/26/16 at 7:47 am to rds dc
@ this little yellow SOB that popped up. 
quote:
2. A weak area of disturbed weather is located over the north-central
Gulf of Mexico. Surface pressures in this area are currently high,
and little to no development of this system is expected before it
reaches the coast of Texas over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
Posted on 8/26/16 at 7:47 am to rds dc
Posted on 8/26/16 at 7:47 am to NorthEndZone
Posted on 8/26/16 at 7:48 am to TrueTiger
Man I have a flight out of Nola on Wednesday at 7:20 AM. Talk about a close call.
Posted on 8/26/16 at 8:04 am to CRAZY 4 LSU
What's the best guess on when the Florida Panhandle will be clear of this? Have a beach trip Labor Day weekend and might try to move things if we will just be sitting in rain or a hurricane.
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