The Amazon Is Doing Exactly the Opposite of What Climate Scientists Predicted For Decades

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For decades, scientists feared the Amazon rainforest was teetering on the edge — increasingly stressed by rising temperatures, prolonged droughts and deforestation. But a landmark study published in Nature Plants this month offers a surprising counterpoint: trees across the Amazon have been steadily growing larger, defying predictions of widespread decline.

Researchers from more than 60 universities — including the University of Cambridge, Universidade do Mato Grosso and University of Leeds — tracked nearly 200 forest plots over a 40-year period, starting in 1971. Their findings show that the average size of Amazonian trees has increased by 3.2% every decade, across all tree classes. From saplings in the understory to towering canopy elders, the forest appears to be thriving — at least for now.

“We expected to see signs of stress or stagnation,” said Professor Tim Baker, a senior author on the project from the University of Leeds. “Instead, we saw consistent growth, even in the largest trees. It was unexpected.”

The study links this growth spurt to the rising concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere — a greenhouse gas long blamed for driving global warming. Trees absorb CO2 through photosynthesis, turning it into biomass. With more CO2 available, the Amazon seems to be undergoing a kind of natural fertilisation effect, fuelling its expansion.

This CO2 fertilisation effect isn’t new to plant scientists, but what makes this study remarkable is the uniformity of the response. Initial models had predicted an uneven distribution of benefits, where only the tallest, sun-drenched trees would thrive, pushing smaller ones out. That didn’t happen

“We actually found the opposite,” said Dr Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert, who co-led the study while at the University of Birmingham. “Trees of all sizes are growing faster. The forest appears to be sharing the benefits of CO2 enrichment across the board.”.

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