re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Thread

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Radar data from western Cuba indicates that Idalia is becoming better organized. Most of an eyewall has formed, with much more curvature in the banding features and overall radar pattern. Satellite imagery also shows the center of Idalia firmly within the central dense overcast. Thus, the initial wind speed is raised to 65 kt, in accordance with the latest TAFB satellite classification.

The hurricane is accelerating northward this morning, now moving at about 9 kt. Idalia should move faster to the north or north-northeast through landfall on Wednesday between mid-level ridging over Florida and a trough dropping into the western Gulf of Mexico. There has been a westward shift in the model guidance overnight, perhaps due to the trough tugging Idalia more northward before taking a north-northeast turn. It should be noted that the ECMWF ensemble shows many of its strongest members on the eastern side of its guidance envelope, which is a reasonable place to be given the synoptic pattern. The new NHC forecast is adjusted a little to the west but is now east of the model consensus on the eastern side of the reliable model guidance. After Idalia leaves the eastern United States coastline, the track forecast becomes highly uncertain and little change was made to the previous forecast.

With an inner core now present, the stage is set for Idalia to rapidly intensify before landfall. Shear should continue to lower over the cyclone as an upper-level trough departs the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and ridging builds closer to the cyclone. These changes, combined with extremely warm and deep waters the hurricane will be traversing, all strongly point to rapid intensification. The new forecast is similar to the previous one, and confidence is increasing in an extremely dangerous major hurricane making landfall Wednesday along the west coast or Big Bend region of Florida.

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