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Posted on 8/28/23 at 8:39 pm to slackster
quote:
Whatever is going on seems to be reigning in some of the intensity guidance of late. The 0z guidance was even lower than the 18z, which was lower than the 12z…
I've been watching the intensity forecasts just to see how they compare. The last two days they've had a strengthening trend. And you're right, today, especially the 18z pulled back on the reins.
This is going to be an interesting one because we will see the human element vs the models. With recent storms in the back of your mind, it is hard not to favor strengthening, even rapid, with this one. Keeping in mind that we still struggle forecasting intensity. That can go both ways.
We'll see.
ETA: Also of note, the hurricane models have struggled with Franklin's strength, whiffing to the low side.
This post was edited on 8/28/23 at 8:41 pm
Posted on 8/28/23 at 8:40 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Even the doomcane maker HWRF backing off
I could be wrong, but I don’t think the intensity model on Levi’s website and the operational model that runs with the graphics are the same thing.
Posted on 8/28/23 at 8:41 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
With recent storms in the back of your mind, it is hard not to favor strengthening, even rapid, with this one.
Yep. We’ve seen a trend of rapid intensification, even up to basically the time of landfall, with some of our big recent storms. Can’t count that possibility out.
It’s a difficult forecast.
This post was edited on 8/28/23 at 8:42 pm
Posted on 8/28/23 at 8:41 pm to LegendInMyMind
The question, to me, is the state of the storm tomorrow morning. Still pretty lopsided, and it burns time it could use to strengthen to organize an inner core. That starts shaving the top end off, the longer it takes.
Posted on 8/28/23 at 8:51 pm to Duke
Still no sticky???? Hhhhmmmm…..
Come on admins.. this is gonna be a big deal….
Come on admins.. this is gonna be a big deal….
Posted on 8/28/23 at 8:51 pm to Duke
quote:
Dr. Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
Tropical Storm #Idalia is likely centered just off the western tip of #Cuba based on radar and aircraft observations. The worst of the weather conditions are likely now moving into western Cuba. A strong burst of thunderstorms is currently ongoing directly above the circulation center. We will see if rain banding is able to wrap fully around the northern half of the circulation and persist on that side tonight, which would be a sign of Idalia getting stronger.
Posted on 8/28/23 at 9:03 pm to rds dc
What the hell kind of name is “Idalia”? Is the Orange Cone of Death going to mess up the scallops at Steinhatchee?
Posted on 8/28/23 at 9:06 pm to beachdude
Posted on 8/28/23 at 9:07 pm to beachdude
quote:
What the hell kind of name is “Idalia”?
Some tracks take it over Vidalia, GA, so I say we go with Vidalia. I could eat those onions like apples.
Posted on 8/28/23 at 9:13 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Anyone care to share a link to that Cuban radar?
Posted on 8/28/23 at 9:20 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Anyone care to share a link to that Cuban radar?
I looked for it today too. I searched enough “Cuban Radar NEXRAD” queries to be on multiple government lists.
Posted on 8/28/23 at 9:20 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
quote:
Dr. Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
Tropical Storm #Idalia is likely centered just off the western tip of #Cuba based on radar and aircraft observations
WTF is this "likely" stuff Cowan? We depend on you. Not as much as RDS and Duke, but at least act like you have a handle on where the damn thing is.
Posted on 8/28/23 at 9:42 pm to dukke v
quote:
Come on admins.. this is gonna be a big deal….
The folks in the path can now breathe a big sigh of relief
Posted on 8/28/23 at 9:45 pm to WilWood
Yeah i’m expecting Idalia to max out at cat 1 now
Posted on 8/28/23 at 9:45 pm to Spoonbilla
quote:
WTF is this "likely" stuff Cowan?
Knock it off. Leave Cowan alone.
Posted on 8/28/23 at 9:47 pm to trussthetruzz
We go from a storm like Ian and Ida to an Issac.
Issac was almost a week event. I remember
the storm getting near the shore and said no I am not going in and hung around for 3 days or so.
Issac was almost a week event. I remember
the storm getting near the shore and said no I am not going in and hung around for 3 days or so.
This post was edited on 8/28/23 at 9:50 pm
Posted on 8/28/23 at 9:55 pm to Tarps99
This one is headed my way for now,but you never know. Waiting now to see how strong and if it moves.
Posted on 8/28/23 at 9:57 pm to Tarps99
quote:
We go from a storm like Ian and Ida to an Issac.
Never trust an "I" storm.
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