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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)

Posted on 9/26/22 at 1:10 pm to
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
54843 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 1:10 pm to
Been watching that latest convection blow up for a few hours now. That's going to really help the left side.
Posted by Bobby OG Johnson
Member since Apr 2015
25235 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 1:12 pm to
quote:

City of Tampa
@CityofTampa
·
2m
SANDBAG UPDATE
Sandbag locations will be open until 8PM today, September 26th (while supplies last).

Please be patient and expect long lines. Staff is working as quickly as possible to help get the lines moving. More info: https://tampa.gov/hurricane
This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 1:13 pm
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
42894 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 1:14 pm to
How about some communist Cuban radar sites?

This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 1:16 pm
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
54843 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 1:15 pm to
quote:

How about some communist Cuban radar sites?


Pssshhhh......their radar domes still have tail fins.

Can you link that radar feed?
This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 1:17 pm
Posted by tommy2tone1999
St. George, LA
Member since Sep 2008
6795 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 1:16 pm to
They can't afford them
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
42894 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 1:17 pm to
Link to communist Cuban radar sites: LINK
This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 1:28 pm
Posted by ReauxlTide222
St. Petersburg
Member since Nov 2010
83590 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 1:18 pm to
quote:

What do you mean specifically? Coastal/surge flood zone?
This.

When evacuation measures start being posted we’re always in the 1st area that needs to leave. Idk how that’s determined but it can’t have anything to do with actual flooding, as it never floods here. 200 yards down the street it has, but not here.


This area slopes pretty significantly down towards the water. I’m honesty not trying be naive but it seems we’re just thrown in with the lower areas that do flood right around here. There’s just nowhere for water to pool or rush through in any dangerous way.
Posted by gatorsimz
cafe risque
Member since Feb 2009
8135 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 1:20 pm to
quote:

Friday Wind Speed


wouldn't that be more like wed night/early thurs?
Posted by alphaandomega
Tuscaloosa
Member since Aug 2012
13635 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 1:20 pm to
quote:

They can't afford them


But we can. I would support a joint radar venture with the Cubans. Put one in Gitmo for the southern areas and another one near Havana for the north. Promise to share weather data.

Its in everyones best interests...
Posted by Poppe
Central FL
Member since Dec 2016
19 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 1:21 pm to
Over in ocklawaha here. Just going to hunker down and wait
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
54843 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 1:21 pm to
quote:

Link to communist Cuban radar sites

I must not be communist enough. It says the site can't be reached.
Posted by LSUJuice
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
17681 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 1:23 pm to
Yeah I see what you're saying. Google earth shows you're at about elevation 17 or 18. And my expertise lies more with rainfall/ riverine than surge so I can't really comment more than that.
Posted by OysterPoBoy
City of St. George
Member since Jul 2013
35509 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 1:25 pm to
quote:

I must not be communist enough. It says the site can't be reached.


That's how you know it's communist.
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
42894 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 1:27 pm to
quote:

I must not be communist enough. It says the site can't be reached.

Gulag or labor camp, your choice.

It's not working for me now either. Cuban internet is clearly subpar. I reposted the link to my previous post if you want to try it again. The page is slow to load at times.
This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 1:28 pm
Posted by Latebloomer
Passing through
Member since Jul 2012
262 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 1:27 pm to
Have some nieces and nephews in Fort McCoy too. Not too worried about this where we are. We went through some rough ones in Louisiana.
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
120415 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 1:28 pm to
quote:

Sandbag locations will be open until 8PM today, September 26th (while supplies last). Please be patient and expect long lines. Staff is working as quickly as possible to help get the lines moving.


Why not just fill up a few sandbags at the beach?
Posted by Hangit
The Green Swamp
Member since Aug 2014
39242 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 1:28 pm to
quote:

The 1-2 punch of surge + rainfall would likely flood a lot of places that haven't flooding in some time.


The surrounding area is going to get a metric arse-load of rain a few days in advance. Just a guess is that 4-600 square miles drain into the Hillsborough River, then through downtown Tampa, into the bay.
Posted by OysterPoBoy
City of St. George
Member since Jul 2013
35509 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 1:29 pm to
Is there an official cone? I thought once it officially became a hurricane they had to put out a cone.
Posted by DeCat ODahouse
Premium Member
Member since Jan 2017
1375 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 1:29 pm to
quote:

How often are the storm surge maps correct? I feel like for storms in Louisiana they are often grossly overstated. Can Tampa really expect 10 feet?



A very layman observation from Ida: the impact of surge can be felt far away from the coastline if you are near a river or manmade canal that eventually flows into the ocean.

Big colored surge areas on some maps do not always convey this nuance.

A tool someone posted earlier is very handy in depicting the effect of surge inland on rivers and canals depending on Hurricane Category.
Interactive storm surge potential map

Even it didn't predict the flooding impacts perfectly during Ida in the Tangipahoa area.
Some places flooded far less than the surge map would indicate and some places far upstream on drainage canals flooded worse.
My guess is rivers and drainage canals filled up and water had no place to go. Not sure trying to quantify that affect is part of these surge prediction maps.


Hopefully one of the experts on the board will clarify and or correct. Just trying to share my regular citizen impression in order to give heads up to others.

Main takeaway, the margin of error on these indicators may be meant to be on your side, but even then I would factor in extra surge, not less, if you have any doubt.

Posted by SippyCup
Gulf Coast
Member since Sep 2008
6145 posts
Posted on 9/26/22 at 1:31 pm to
quote:

Why not just fill up a few sandbags at the beach?


Might as well, those beaches wont be there come Saturday.
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