re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

quote:

---

An example of misinformation / information operations: distractions.

Russian Mil Telegram channels are painting a very bleak picture of events and the potential for defensive collapse.

Magically, new topics are up for discussion.

---

The misuse of the information theatre and its prolific use in this war is not a new topic, it has been discussed multiple time by myself and others - though this particular take on some of the tactics being used is a new aspect.

There has been little significant change in the war for several weeks outside the claims of the Kupyansk axis being under threat by Russia and Ukraine's lack of progress which have been mulled over considerably.

Feel free to share your Russian telegram channels info so we can discuss that or are you making an attempt at a, ahem, distraction?

quote:

---

Didn't see this posted anywhere. I'm sure it's fake and Julian Ropcke is also a Russian troll.

---

Jihad Julian.

*ETA — I’m on my phone but I’ll post some of what I’m seeing later tonight.

ISW Update

quote:

---

Key Takeaways:

Russian forces launched a missile strike during the day on August 19 targeting Chernihiv City center after carrying out a series of Shahed drone strikes overnight.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on Soltsy airbase in Novgorod Oblast and reportedly damaged strategic aircraft on August 19.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 19, and advanced along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Chief of the Russian General Staff and overall theater commander Army General Valery Gerasimov and senior officers at the Southern Military District (SMD) headquarters in Rostov-on-Don on August 19.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is continuing to set conditions to possibly replace Wagner Group forces with MoD-affiliated private military companies (PMCs).

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area and advanced in certain areas on August 19.

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed a decree on August 17 establishing the Donetsk Higher Combined Arms Command School under the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), likely in an effort to further integrate proxy military formations in occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

Russian officials continue to deport children from occupied Ukraine to Russia.

---

F-16's in Ukraine

Source: Mykola Oleshchuk on Ukraine’s national 24/7 newscast

Quote from Oleshchuk: "An F-16 jet has already been to Ukraine. It has touched down on our airfields, we’ve held joint training with F-16 pilots, and so we do have experience operating the F-16 jets. I think this is crucial."

Details: Oleshchuk also said that Ukraine is currently preparing its runways [for F-16 jets]. "We are making the necessary alterations, improving the surface, improving our airfields’

LINK

quote:

---

Does Ukraine need anymore of my money? Just checking.

---

Just for a few more years...it's a small price to pay for dead Russians.

quote:

---

Just for a few more years...it's a small price to pay for dead Russians.

---

What fricking year is it

Funny bc I feel like this thread has gotten far more objective and nuanced since it's no longer just a neocon / shitlib ecochamber

quote:

---

Russia’s space agency said Sunday that its Luna-25 spacecraft — its first lunar mission in almost half a century — crashed into the moon.

---

This doesn't directly affect the war, of course, but it's a blow to Russia's pride. The probe was going to land at the Moon's South Pole to look for possible traces of water.

quote:

---

This thread has been completely taken over by trolls. It’s unreadable now.

---

It happens every time Russia is publicly perceived to be doing well in the war and Ukraine is perceived to be doing poorly, and that is somehow the public perception right now (e.g. there's a Washington Post front-page story right now entitled "Ukraine running out of options to retake significant territory")

But the public perception is often wrong, and I think it is now. The newer trolls here should know that I don't always look at the war through blue-and-yellow colored glasses -- I was very negative about prospects for the Ukrainian offensive before cluster munitions arrived.

Now, though, Ukraine has finally broken through the dense minefields around Robotyne and is finally making daily progress towards Tokmak. Further east, there's lots of evidence that Russian troops defending Staromlynivka are becoming demoralized (e.g. after they were crushed in Urozhaine, the leader of the Vostok Battalion fighting in that area recently called for Russia to pursue peace negotiations to freeze the conflict).

The nature of the fight has significantly changed in the last few weeks due to two things:

1) Ukraine making it through the dense minefields on the Orikhiv-Tokmak axis.

2) The artillery balance now firmly in favor of Ukraine, as cluster munitions do tremendous damage, and Ukrainian counter-battery fire has taken out a significant number of Russian artillery pieces.

I don't know how far Ukraine is going to advance between now and November, but I'm confident that they are going to make significant progress.

quote:

---

I don't know how far Ukraine is going to advance between now and November, but I'm confident that they are going to make significant progress.

---

Are you thinking strategic breakthrough or more like tactical gains?