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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 9/13/22 at 1:56 pm to Chromdome35
Posted on 9/13/22 at 1:56 pm to Chromdome35
Lots of articles out there in the MSM now about Ukraine's rout of Russia. None of these articles have much additional information beyond what's already appeared in the thread; however, they are good summaries for those looking for a quick synopsis.
Here are two, one from CNN and one from NYT (paywalled)
https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/13/europe/ukraine-advance-russia-war-analysis-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
And from the NY Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/12/briefing/russia-ukraine-war-kharkiv-counteroffensive.html?auth=login-email&login=email
Here are two, one from CNN and one from NYT (paywalled)
https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/13/europe/ukraine-advance-russia-war-analysis-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
quote:
These Russian losses are the accumulation of a multitude of existing problems that are now colliding head-on with a Ukrainian military that has been patient, methodical and infused with billions of dollars of the Western military equipment that Russia cannot match.
And without a drastic, and potentially unconventional intervention from Putin, the Ukrainian victories are likely to accelerate, analysts say.
Many of Russia’s problems – poor and inflexible leadership, sour troop morale, inadequate logistics and hardware beset by maintenance issues – have been evident since the beginning stages of the war more than seven months ago.
The Russian military’s hollow core – including tanks that were easy prey for Ukrainian ground troops and trucks that didn’t have the right tires to traverse Ukraine’s landscape – was quickly exposed by tactics ill-suited to the blitzkrieg Putin had planned.
Remember that 64-kilometer (40-mile) convoy that stalled on the way to the capital of Kyiv and was shredded by Ukrainian defenders?
As that convoy stalled, reports filtered out that Russian troops had significant morale problems – some didn’t even know they were in Ukraine, or if they did, why they were there. As the fighting intensified, Ukrainian forces targeted Russian leadership, killing generals and colonels who would have been expected to rally the Russian forces.
And from the NY Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/12/briefing/russia-ukraine-war-kharkiv-counteroffensive.html?auth=login-email&login=email
quote:
Reversal of fortune
Ukrainian forces blitzed the northeast over the weekend, driving Russian troops from more than 1,000 square miles and completely reshaping the six-month-old war in a matter of days.
When we reported on Ukraine’s early gains on Friday, the reality on the ground was still not confirmed. But now there is no doubt: A grinding stalemate has been transformed in Ukraine’s favor, giving Russia its most humiliating defeat since the initial stages of the war.
The lightning gains, which at times seemed to have surprised both sides, have lifted morale in Ukraine, left Russia’s leadership with few good options and increased Ukrainian calls for more Western weapons.
“Ukrainian forces have inflicted a major operations defeat on Russia,” said the Institute for the Study of War, a group in Washington that tracks the war.
The advances in the Kharkiv region included the recapture of the town of Izium, a railway hub that has been a key military stronghold for Russian forces.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 1:59 pm to Chromdome35
seeing several reports like this ...
Russians ran from the occupied #Melitopol.
This was announced by the mayor of the city Ivan Fedorov. The dirty-asses moved towards the #Crimea, "taking" with them the cars of civilians in order to load the stolen goods into them.
twitter
Russians ran from the occupied #Melitopol.
This was announced by the mayor of the city Ivan Fedorov. The dirty-asses moved towards the #Crimea, "taking" with them the cars of civilians in order to load the stolen goods into them.
This post was edited on 9/13/22 at 2:05 pm
Posted on 9/13/22 at 2:00 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
UK Intel discloses that the prestigious Russian 1st Guards’ Tank Army has been destroyed. This top-teir force is the largest single unit lost by Russia since World War II. Information is evolving, but captured RU troops may number in 10s of thousands.
if this is true than Ukraine has essentially won and this is a matter of time now and honestly without Russia going Nuclear....or china bailing them out, the UKEs could march to red square if they wanted. and you know what....i hope those crazy frickers do.
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Iconusaflagsmiley.gif)
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Iconusaflagsmiley.gif)
Posted on 9/13/22 at 2:07 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Correct. Ukraine hasn't taken it back yet, but it looks like they might.
Ukraine has not taken it back but they have basically returned to the pre invasion line of conflict. Which is very impressive. The fact that they accomplished it in less than a week and their forces still have the ability to continue the fight further is a hell of an accomplishment.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 2:12 pm to WeeWee
Once they take Melitopol, Mariupol, and Kherson, they will have returned to the pre-invasion lines. I fully expect them to take back the parts of the Donbas Russia took in 2014.
Crimea is going to be a difficult offensive. I expect Russia to fight tooth and nail for it.
The terrain from Kherson to Crimea is a classic bottleneck spot and unlike in the East, there is much less cover and attackers will be exposed.
Crimea is going to be a difficult offensive. I expect Russia to fight tooth and nail for it.
The terrain from Kherson to Crimea is a classic bottleneck spot and unlike in the East, there is much less cover and attackers will be exposed.
This post was edited on 9/13/22 at 2:16 pm
Posted on 9/13/22 at 2:32 pm to Chromdome35
quote:That's why I come here & I wasn't discussing posters bringing various war updates. I was discussing the handful of posters continually hijacking this thread . Obviously I made a bad analogy considering the response from you & Tboy.
I'm not trying to sway anyones opinion either way. I believe to the core of my soul that I can have my opinion, and you can have yours.
One thing I have learned over the years of posting on TD, you aren't going to change anyone's mind, so don't try.
Instead, I post information relevant to the war
Posted on 9/13/22 at 2:55 pm to cypher
quote:
This was announced by the mayor of the city Ivan Fedorov. The dirty-asses moved towards the #Crimea, "taking" with them the cars of civilians in order to load the stolen goods into them.
Russians have a different concept of "liberating" a population than is the usual and customary concept.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 2:56 pm to sugar71
quote:
Obviously I made a bad analogy considering the response from you & Tboy.
I got no problems with you. Even if you did wander in, hang around if you wish.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 3:14 pm to Chromdome35
Wow that would be a rout. I also feel like Ukraine would want all of their pre-2014 territory back. Including Crimea.
For discussion, let’s assume this plays out as stated and Russian forces do have to retreat to Crimea. Doesn’t Ukraine have the ability to cut them off by destroying the main Kerch bridge?
Why wouldn’t Ukraine bomb the hell out of Crimea for however long it takes to get the Russians out, instead of a difficult bottleneck offensive?
For discussion, let’s assume this plays out as stated and Russian forces do have to retreat to Crimea. Doesn’t Ukraine have the ability to cut them off by destroying the main Kerch bridge?
Why wouldn’t Ukraine bomb the hell out of Crimea for however long it takes to get the Russians out, instead of a difficult bottleneck offensive?
This post was edited on 9/13/22 at 3:19 pm
Posted on 9/13/22 at 3:27 pm to AGGIES
quote:
For discussion, let’s assume this plays out as stated and Russian forces do have to retreat to Crimea. Doesn’t Ukraine have the ability to cut them off by destroying the main Kerch bridge?
Why wouldn’t Ukraine bomb the hell out of Crimea for however long it takes to get the Russians out, instead of a difficult bottleneck offensive?
Absolutely, the Kerch bridge is a massive weak spot for Russia. If Ukraine takes back southern Ukraine and takes out the Kerch bridge, then Crimea is cut off and will have to rely on Air and Sea replenishment. I think they will rely on this to drive Russia out instead of trying to take it back, but I could be wrong on that.
This post was edited on 9/13/22 at 3:29 pm
Posted on 9/13/22 at 3:57 pm to Philzilla2k
quote:
Then e-1 through e-4 get room and board for free.
If they are single then that's correct but not if they are married and/or have children. They have to pay to feed them.
There are quite a few countries we support with funds that should be slashed to take care of our people first.
Our roads and water systems are going to hell soour tax dollars should be used here first.Helping destroy Russia is help we should be giving but only if we are taking care of us first.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 4:02 pm to SOSFAN
quote:
There are quite a few countries we support with funds that should be slashed to take care of our people first. Our roads and water systems are going to hell soour tax dollars should be used here first.Helping destroy Russia is help we should be giving but only if we are taking care of us first.
This isn’t about the war, but simply sending money to cities and states doesn’t fix anything.
Look at what Jackson, Ms. did with the federal dollars they received to fix their water system. Money was spent, nothing got better, and now it’s a crisis.
The notion that government is a problem solver is prevalent, but the truth is people are problem solvers and if you have the wrong people in government nothing will get solved.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 4:13 pm to doubleb
You have an excellent point. If our tax dollars going to cities here are misused can you imagine how much we send to other countries are also misused.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 4:16 pm to doubleb
quote:
The notion that government is a problem solver is prevalent
Government whether local, national or global creates 90% of the problems on this planet. Misallocation of resources and the tendency of large, top down organizations to be corrupt.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 4:25 pm to AGGIES
quote:
For discussion, let’s assume this plays out as stated and Russian forces do have to retreat to Crimea. Doesn’t Ukraine have the ability to cut them off by destroying the main Kerch bridge?
A June PDF brief from International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) highlighting Russia's preference for push logistics (decisions made from centralized command with predetermined burn rates) as opposed to pull logistics (as needed in the field). Granted, the Kerch bridge is important, but Crimea has the ports.
Russia has made expeditionary errors, aka multiple fronts and related logistical difficulties, but you'd think they would learn from those mistakes.
I'm not a supply chain expert, but I would think a defense focused solely on Crimea would simplify their logistics tail.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 4:26 pm to SOSFAN
quote:
You have an excellent point. If our tax dollars going to cities here are misused can you imagine how much we send to other countries are also misused.
I agree
Posted on 9/13/22 at 4:43 pm to MNCTigah
quote:
Granted, the Kerch bridge is important, but Crimea has the ports.
Good point. They could technically resupply from the sea. But that seems very risky considering how easily their resupply ships were taken out previously.
So I’m considering that Ukraine would just bomb the ports if they attempted that. Forget trying to preserve anything that could also benefit Russia until the war is over.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 4:48 pm to AGGIES
Boy Russia gets its arse kicked this last week
Posted on 9/13/22 at 5:17 pm to AGGIES
There are surely vulnerabilities with Russian logistics in Crimea. If the Kerch bridge can be reached, then the Kerch port and rail would obviously be targeted as well.
Global Hawks and NATO AWACS over the Black Sea providing targeting and intelligence... insurgencies on the ground, etc.
Rationally, I can't fathom that Russia wouldn't learn from prior logistical mistakes. But their corruption and lack of transparency is entrenched. As is their doctrine, military culture, etc.
Global Hawks and NATO AWACS over the Black Sea providing targeting and intelligence... insurgencies on the ground, etc.
Rationally, I can't fathom that Russia wouldn't learn from prior logistical mistakes. But their corruption and lack of transparency is entrenched. As is their doctrine, military culture, etc.
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