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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 9/13/22 at 5:20 pm to AGGIES
Posted on 9/13/22 at 5:20 pm to AGGIES
quote:
They could technically resupply from the sea. But that seems very risky considering how easily their resupply ships were taken out previously.
General Hodges agrees...
Ben Hodges
@general_ben
Soon, after getting past Kherson, Ukrainians will be able to range most/all of Crimea...hitting all the Russian air and logistics bases there and making Sevastopol unusable for the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Then it's just a matter of time...
0
Posted on 9/13/22 at 5:32 pm to MNCTigah
quote:
A June PDF brief from International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) highlighting Russia's preference for push logistics (decisions made from centralized command with predetermined burn rates) as opposed to pull logistics (as needed in the field). Granted, the Kerch bridge is important, but Crimea has the ports.
There is a rail yard just outside of the city of Kerch. If that rail yard is significantly damaged by Ukraininan saboteurs, spetznaz, or HIMARs then the railroads from in Crimea are basically cut off from mainland Russia. Sebastopol is a major port but if the Ukrainians drive the Russians back to the pre-invasion Ukrainian-Crimean border then it within range of Ukraine's HIMARs. Sink a few ships at the wharfs with HIMARs and the port becomes useless until it can be repaired. It took Russia 3 months to repair the port of Berdyansk after just one ship was sunk off its wharf. Not to mention that if Ukraine degrades the Russian ADS in Crimea then the Ukrainians will have control of the air over Crimea. Ukrainian jets and coppers will make short work of the rail network inside Crimea. Ukraine just has to rebuild the dam on the North Crimean Canal and keep the Russians from repairing the infrastructure they destroy in Crimea and then open negotiations from a position of strength. It was such a dry summer that the reservoirs in Crimea were not able to be filled very much.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 5:38 pm to StraightCashHomey21
quote:
Boy Russia gets its arse kicked this last week
and it is not over yet.
quote:LINK
The Mayor of #Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, in #Zaporizhzhia region is reporting that Russian columns are heading towards #Chonbar in #Kherson region at the entrance to #Crimea. (another retreat to "regroup"?
Melitopol is the key to the land bridge to Crimea. If the Russians are really abandoning it then they will be abandoning all of southern Ukraine shortly.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 5:41 pm to WeeWee
Evening update from Rybar on the situation in the Kharkiv area. Note the comment I bolded about protecting against desertions.
quote:
?????????? The situation in the Kharkiv direction
by the end of September 13, 2022
The units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to occupy positions west of the Oskol River, simultaneously building up their grouping for the subsequent assault on the positions of the RF Armed Forces on the opposite bank.
?? The offensive is planned in two directions: Svatovo and Petropavlovka to reach the flank of the grouping of allied forces in the Luhansk People's Republic.
?? For this, about two thousand military personnel of the most trained formations are being prepared to be sent in the vicinity of Kupyansk and in the direction of Balakleya.
In particular, about one thousand people from 47 brigades, as well as 800 people from the 112 and 114 territorial defense brigades, who were trained at training grounds in the Zhytomyr region.
The transfer will be carried out by rail at night under the control of members of the Right Sector DUK to prevent desertion.
?? In addition, columns of military equipment, including Western-made ones, arrived in Balakleya and Nortsovka. Several 155-mm M109 self-propelled howitzers were transferred to Khudoyarovo and Tatyanovka for the needs of the 14th Ombre.
?? In preparation for the offensive, Ukrainian UAV crews have stepped up reconnaissance of the positions of the Russian Armed Forces, artillery and tactical aircraft of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are inflicting random strikes on them.
?? At the same time, the Ukrainian leadership deliberately hides the number of losses incurred during the offensive in the Kharkiv region. According to residents of Kharkiv and Sumy regions, more than 1,200 wounded servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were delivered to medical facilities on September 8-9 alone.
Map in high resolution
This post was edited on 9/13/22 at 5:42 pm
Posted on 9/13/22 at 5:45 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Breaking: Ukraine preparing for massive missile swarm. It’s official, Russia has taken the gloves off and the Black Sea Fleet has been unleashed. Video below.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 5:52 pm to WeeWee
Good luck intercepting that missile
This post was edited on 9/13/22 at 5:53 pm
Posted on 9/13/22 at 5:57 pm to WeeWee
Hey Wee Wee, are we sure the naval base at Sevastopol is within HIMARS range? I'm not talking ATACMS, just standard HIMARS.
Everything I've seen says the max range is about 92km, except for one missile variant called the ER-GMLRS that has a range of 150KM.
Looking at Google earth, the closest point Ukraine comes to Sevastopol is right at 170km. Same with the Kerch bridge which is 150km away from the closest point in Ukraine.
If they don't have ATACMS, HIMARS doesn't appear to be in the range of those two spots.
Their domestically produced THOR(?) rocket artillerly would put both in range easily as would ATACMs.
Everything I've seen says the max range is about 92km, except for one missile variant called the ER-GMLRS that has a range of 150KM.
Looking at Google earth, the closest point Ukraine comes to Sevastopol is right at 170km. Same with the Kerch bridge which is 150km away from the closest point in Ukraine.
If they don't have ATACMS, HIMARS doesn't appear to be in the range of those two spots.
Their domestically produced THOR(?) rocket artillerly would put both in range easily as would ATACMs.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 6:15 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Hey Wee Wee, are we sure the naval base at Sevastopol is within HIMARS range? I'm not talking ATACMS, just standard HIMARS.
Ukraine is supposed to be receiving the JFS-M missiles from Germany. Those can be fired out of the HIMARs system and have a range of 300 km which would put the naval base within range of the HIMARS. Ukraine also has 90 OTR-21 Tochka missile launchers and several hundred ballistic missiles. They are having to overhaul the missiles because they are so old, but they have them. They also have an unknown number of Hrim2/Thunder2 ballistic missiles as well as Neptune and Harpoon cruise missiles which can all hit the base if launched from the Kherson/Crimean border.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 6:26 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Ukraine is supposed to be receiving the JFS-M missiles from Germany.
They might arrive in 12 months.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 6:41 pm to AU86
quote:
Ukraine is supposed to be receiving the JFS-M missiles from Germany.
They might arrive in 12 months.
True but the Neptunes, Harpoons, and Tochka missiles are already in country.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 6:48 pm to WeeWee
Russia cutting its losses. Might be the appropriate thing to do until the end of October , but then they will be able to shutdown all gas/oil to Europe , with a larger impact than the proverbial nuclear weapon.
Remember the eu snickering when Trump said they were shortsighted in expanding the reliance on Russia energy. Maybe that file is the target of the Mar a Lago fbi raid
Posted on 9/13/22 at 6:57 pm to REG861
quote:
I hope stidham and AlpineTiger didnt take it out on their wives.
Plot twist: they are married to each other.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 7:02 pm to Trevaylin
quote:
but then they will be able to shutdown all gas/oil to Europe
This has been discussed about 400 times in this thread and it’s not nearly as bad as some make it out to be
Posted on 9/13/22 at 7:04 pm to Trevaylin
Eh Russia turning off their gas won’t be the kill shot many think. Europe is already finding alternatives and will find more even if we have to get directly involved. It might be a tough winter but it won’t be cataclysmic
This post was edited on 9/13/22 at 7:05 pm
Posted on 9/13/22 at 7:06 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
I hope stidham and AlpineTiger didnt take it out on their wives.
Plot twist: they are married to each other.
I hope they are a same-sex couple because they would make some awfully stupid offspring if they mated.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 7:12 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Melitopol is the key to the land bridge to Crimea. If the Russians are really abandoning it then they will be abandoning all of southern Ukraine shortly.
Unfortunately, I think that this is mostly Ukrainian psyops. But there probably are a number of collaborators leaving -- Russian schoolteachers, passport distributors, bank officials, etc. Melitopol is certainly not safe for them.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 7:21 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Crimea is going to be a difficult offensive. I expect Russia to fight tooth and nail for it.
I hate to say it but I don't think Crimea is returning to Ukraine long-term. I don't think this is a military issue but a diplomatic one.
The warring needs to stop and if Ukraine takes and tries to keep Crimea and that very strategic warm water port the war will never end.
Taking Crimea back would start with two keys (already mentioned): dam the canal and cut the Kerch bridge. At that point, Crimea is essentially an island and Russia just doesn't have the air and sea assets to support a war there. I would imagine they would attempt to establish a land bridge again and so the whole thing starts over again. The Russians think of Crimea as very much Russia now an attempt to wrestle it back may very well change the will of the Russian people.
Positioning themselves to take back Crimea may be the trump card to get the peace talks started and done. Trying to take and hold it may be the ticket to endless war.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 7:23 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
But there probably are a number of collaborators leaving -- Russian schoolteachers, passport distributors, bank officials, etc. Melitopol is certainly not safe for them.
Or Russian soldiers
Posted on 9/13/22 at 7:25 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Russian schoolteachers,
I did a read a tweet a while back that Ukraine also captured Russian school teachers who didn't have time to evacuate in the Kharkiv region
Posted on 9/13/22 at 7:39 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
I hate to say it but I don't think Crimea is returning to Ukraine long-term. I don't think this is a military issue but a diplomatic one.
The warring needs to stop and if Ukraine takes and tries to keep Crimea and that very strategic warm water port the war will never end.
Not necessarily. The Russians have a warm water port in Novorossiysk. In fact, prior to the annexation of Crimea the Russians had allocated 480 million USD to build the facilities to relocate the Black Sea Fleet to Novorossiysk by 2020. However, when the opportunity to annex Crimea presented itselt, Russians decided on Sevastopol for two reasons. The first reason is that the naval facilities were already in place therefore they would not have to pay to build them. The second was to deny the port to NATO. If the naval facilities are destroyed by missiles, air strikes, or saboteurs, and Ukraine and/or NATO pledges to not use Sevastopol as a naval base then Russia might just be open to the idea of relocating its naval base of Novorossiysk.
quote:
Taking Crimea back would start with two keys (already mentioned): dam the canal and cut the Kerch bridge. At that point, Crimea is essentially an island and Russia just doesn't have the air and sea assets to support a war there. I would imagine they would attempt to establish a land bridge again and so the whole thing starts over again. The Russians think of Crimea as very much Russia now an attempt to wrestle it back may very well change the will of the Russian people.
Positioning themselves to take back Crimea may be the trump card to get the peace talks started and done. Trying to take and hold it may be the ticket to endless war.
I do think that Ukraine will enter Crimea but I do not think they will retake it. The northern half of the peninsula is flat farm land so the Ukrainians will be able to pursue the fleeing Russians until they reach the Crimean mountains in southern Crimea. Unless the Russian military just completely falls apart I believe they will be able to rally stop the Ukrainians there. However, it will take Russia a long time to replace the equipment that it has lost in the last 6 months and as when have seen in the last week the Ukrainians have learned how to use combined arms and proved that the tank is not outdated like some people where saying. However, I do not think that Russia or Ukraine can afford an endless war at this point so entering Crimea, damning the canal, and damaging or destroying the bridge will cause both sides to enter peace talks.
This post was edited on 9/13/22 at 7:40 pm
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