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World Cup Daily Thread - Thurs., June 25
Posted on 6/24/26 at 9:40 pm
Posted on 6/24/26 at 9:40 pm
Today's matches: (all times listed are Central Time)
Curacao vs. Ivory Coast 3:00 PM (Group E)
Ecuador vs. Germany 3:00 PM (Group E)
Japan vs. Sweden 6:00 PM (Group F)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands 6:00 PM (Group F)
Turkiye vs. USA 9:00 PM (Group D)*
Paraguay vs. Australia 9:00 PM (Group D)
* - Please discuss the US match in the dedicated match thread
Standings:
Group D
USA 6 pts +5 GD
Australia 3 pts 0 GD
Paraguay 3 pts -2 GD
Turkiye 0 pts -3 GD
Group E
Germany 6 pts +7 GD
Ivory Coast 3 pts 0 GD
Ecuador 1 pt -1 GD
Curacao 1 pt -6 GD
Group F
Netherlands 4 pts +4 GD
Japan 4 pts +4 GD
Sweden 3 pts 0 GD
Tunisia 0 pts -8 GD
Bold = won group
Italics = eliminated from knockout stage contention
Standings and Group Tables
Curacao vs. Ivory Coast 3:00 PM (Group E)
Ecuador vs. Germany 3:00 PM (Group E)
Japan vs. Sweden 6:00 PM (Group F)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands 6:00 PM (Group F)
Turkiye vs. USA 9:00 PM (Group D)*
Paraguay vs. Australia 9:00 PM (Group D)
* - Please discuss the US match in the dedicated match thread
Standings:
Group D
USA 6 pts +5 GD
Australia 3 pts 0 GD
Paraguay 3 pts -2 GD
Turkiye 0 pts -3 GD
Group E
Germany 6 pts +7 GD
Ivory Coast 3 pts 0 GD
Ecuador 1 pt -1 GD
Curacao 1 pt -6 GD
Group F
Netherlands 4 pts +4 GD
Japan 4 pts +4 GD
Sweden 3 pts 0 GD
Tunisia 0 pts -8 GD
Bold = won group
Italics = eliminated from knockout stage contention
Standings and Group Tables
9
Posted on 6/24/26 at 10:24 pm to rt3
My body is ready.
Posted on 6/25/26 at 7:18 am to rt3
Japan will purposely score an own goal today and lose 1-0 so they don't finish 2nd place in the group. 2nd place finisher plays Brazil in the knockout. 3rd place could face a number of group winners.
Japan could also try and win the match and outscore the Dutch to win the group but they're playing Tunisia and it's very unlikely.
Japan could also try and win the match and outscore the Dutch to win the group but they're playing Tunisia and it's very unlikely.
This post was edited on 6/25/26 at 7:21 am
Posted on 6/25/26 at 7:51 am to tzimme4
Japan can beat Brasil imo. I'd be more confident if they had Mitoma but they definitely can do it.
Posted on 6/25/26 at 8:21 am to tzimme4
quote:If Japan loses 1-0 would they supplant Bosnia as the most likely RD32 opponent for the USMNT?
Japan will purposely score an own goal today and lose 1-0 so they don't finish 2nd place in the group.
Posted on 6/25/26 at 8:35 am to AwesomeSauce
quote:
If Japan loses 1-0 would they supplant Bosnia as the most likely RD32 opponent for the USMNT?
No
Still >99% Bosnia per the models
The path to get Senegal requires
1. Ecuador over Germany
2. Japan over Sweden
3. Senegal over Iraq
4. Urugay win/draw against Spain
5. Iran win/draw against Egypt
6. Croatia win/draw against Ghana
7. Congo win against Uzbekistan
8. Algeria draw against Austria
And that only gets you a 40% chance. And all of those criteria must be met.
This post was edited on 6/25/26 at 8:40 am
Posted on 6/25/26 at 8:41 am to rt3
Today we are all german, Australian, and japanese
Posted on 6/25/26 at 8:42 am to AwesomeSauce
Japan could lose 5-0 today and it wouldn't change much from US playing Bosnia.
Posted on 6/25/26 at 8:44 am to AwesomeSauce
Every projection I’ve seen looks like we can say with confidence we have one of the easiest paths to the QF.
Very likely Bosnia in R32 and Egypt in R16
Very likely Bosnia in R32 and Egypt in R16
Posted on 6/25/26 at 8:55 am to AkronTiger
Thanks.
Watching the matches, definitely would rather Bosnia out of all the potential matchups.
Watching the matches, definitely would rather Bosnia out of all the potential matchups.
Posted on 6/25/26 at 10:18 am to AwesomeSauce
I have a question: Our possible R32 opponents are 3rd place from either Groups B or I.
Bosnia is most likely advancing. Senegal would finish 3rd in I even with a win, but they would be lucky to advance with 3 points.
For the sake of discussion, let's say they do advance. Out of the two, are we paired with the opponent that earned fewer points (Senegal 3 points) or the opponent who earned more points (Bosnia 4 points)?
Bosnia is most likely advancing. Senegal would finish 3rd in I even with a win, but they would be lucky to advance with 3 points.
For the sake of discussion, let's say they do advance. Out of the two, are we paired with the opponent that earned fewer points (Senegal 3 points) or the opponent who earned more points (Bosnia 4 points)?
Posted on 6/25/26 at 10:21 am to rt3
Posted on 6/25/26 at 10:26 am to AwesomeSauce
quote:
Watching the matches, definitely would rather Bosnia out of all the potential matchups.
I'm not a "soccer guy", but I was thoroughly unimpressed by both Bosnia and Qatar. Looked slow and uninspired in a must win game.
Posted on 6/25/26 at 10:27 am to magildachunks
quote:
Out of the two, are we paired with the opponent that earned fewer points (Senegal 3 points) or the opponent who earned more points (Bosnia 4 points)?
It is almost a certainty we're playing Bosnia.
Posted on 6/25/26 at 10:27 am to magildachunks
quote:
Out of the two, are we paired with the opponent that earned fewer points (Senegal 3 points) or the opponent who earned more points (Bosnia 4 points)?
There is another thread where a Wiki article was linked. Basically, there is a 1% chance of us playing Senegal. It comes down to a ton of other variables. The USA will be playing Bosnia in the round of 32.
Posted on 6/25/26 at 10:28 am to magildachunks
I played around with the NYT machine, see above. Senegal US would require a very, very narrow path and even then it's less than 50/50.
Posted on 6/25/26 at 10:30 am to The Pirate King
This post was edited on 6/25/26 at 10:31 am
Posted on 6/25/26 at 12:34 pm to Alyosha
What has to happen to keep Scotland alive? Or are they toast
Posted on 6/25/26 at 12:35 pm to rt3
Of the 3 teams entering today's slate of matches in 3rd place (Paraguay, Ecuador, Sweden)...
Ecuador NEEDS a win... anything less than a win eliminates Ecuador from the knockout round
Paraguay would currently advance... but could use a result to better its chances of advancing considering a team like Belgium is currently on the outside looking in
Sweden is sitting pretty & should be able to advance even with a loss today unless there's some monumental collapse
Ecuador NEEDS a win... anything less than a win eliminates Ecuador from the knockout round
Paraguay would currently advance... but could use a result to better its chances of advancing considering a team like Belgium is currently on the outside looking in
Sweden is sitting pretty & should be able to advance even with a loss today unless there's some monumental collapse
Posted on 6/25/26 at 12:36 pm to olddawg26
quote:
What has to happen to keep Scotland alive? Or are they toast
People below them in points don’t get results.
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