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Why is the betting market seen as such a “reliable” metric?
Posted on 10/9/24 at 7:40 am
Posted on 10/9/24 at 7:40 am
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think this election is legitimately as close as it appears to be, especially in the polls.. but is it crazy to think there are enough people who saw how 2020 played out and are smart enough to vote for Trump, but would absolutely hedge their bet on Harris, thus skewing the overall percentages?
I don’t think this would account for 25% or really even 10% (though possible), but I do believe at least a significant number, comparable to the MOE on most traditional polls, of those who are bettors on a presidential election would see this as an opportunity to “oppose” their interest for the sake of monetary gain should their vote fail.
Just see a lot of attention being paid to “the bettors odds/percentages being neck and neck” and it has never made sense to me why that is seen as an incontrovertible source of either panic or boasting one way or the other.
I don’t think this would account for 25% or really even 10% (though possible), but I do believe at least a significant number, comparable to the MOE on most traditional polls, of those who are bettors on a presidential election would see this as an opportunity to “oppose” their interest for the sake of monetary gain should their vote fail.
Just see a lot of attention being paid to “the bettors odds/percentages being neck and neck” and it has never made sense to me why that is seen as an incontrovertible source of either panic or boasting one way or the other.
12
Posted on 10/9/24 at 7:41 am to crotiger0307
Mainly due to the fact that money is on the line.
Posted on 10/9/24 at 7:42 am to crotiger0307
I don't.
I see the betting market following the polls.
I see the betting market following the polls.
Posted on 10/9/24 at 7:42 am to crotiger0307
quote:
it has never made sense to me why that is seen as an incontrovertible source of either panic or boasting one way or the other.
You’ve moved the goalposts a very long way when you threw in the word “incontrovertible”. No one thinks that.
Posted on 10/9/24 at 7:44 am to crotiger0307
Betting markets take into account the cheat, in other words, reality
Posted on 10/9/24 at 7:45 am to crotiger0307
It’s not a reliable metric
Posted on 10/9/24 at 7:47 am to crotiger0307
It's not. It's wrong often and you'll see the money shift as the results come in. It was wrong in 2016 and 2022 in general. There have also been House and Senate races it's gotten very wrong as well.
The betting markets are based on polls and a general feel, nothing any of us can't find ourselves.
The betting markets are based on polls and a general feel, nothing any of us can't find ourselves.
Posted on 10/9/24 at 7:51 am to TrueTiger
quote:
I see the betting market following the polls.
Given the difficulty in polling in modern times, I think the “polling” and “betting” markets are one and the same.
The betting markets are people placing money bets on where they think the public stands.
The pollsters are placing their credibility and reliability on the line in trying to set the sample demographics to match where they think the public is.
I see very little difference.
Posted on 10/9/24 at 7:59 am to Sus-Scrofa
What’s the best one to use? Predictit? Another one?
Posted on 10/9/24 at 8:02 am to crotiger0307
Posted on 10/9/24 at 8:16 am to Clemsontigers02
Real clear politics grabs all of them and runs an average.
Posted on 10/9/24 at 8:25 am to Sus-Scrofa
I wouldn't bet on this election due to the cheat. In a fair election, I'd bet my house on Trump.
Posted on 10/9/24 at 8:35 am to crotiger0307
Just so yall know, Vegas is never “picking” who they think will win. They set the line and then adjust the line to try to keep the money at a 50/50 split between the two teams (or candidates). Vegas was and is built on the 10% vig (their fee for taking a bet).
Posted on 10/9/24 at 8:51 am to crotiger0307
I don't consider it reliable
Posted on 10/9/24 at 8:54 am to crotiger0307
Vegas isn’t in the business of losing money
Posted on 10/9/24 at 9:22 am to crotiger0307
look at the betting market one day prior to election and then you will have a 95% accurate gauge on who is going to win ( minus dead people votes that could f it all up)
Posted on 10/9/24 at 9:32 am to crotiger0307
Just like sports, they don’t care who wins, they want half on each side. They make money on the juice.
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