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re: Trump / Sanders electoral map with tossup states
Posted on 2/24/20 at 9:36 am to willymeaux
Posted on 2/24/20 at 9:36 am to willymeaux
Florida party registrations have shifted more red by a significant margin. Obviously it’s still considered “swing” but if trump is polling +8 in WI, he’s gonna be just fine in Florida.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 9:38 am to Bear Is Dead
I think he will win WI, but that poll seems strangely odd to me.
Would like to know not only the Dem/GOP breakdown but where those voters reside.
A Dem in Wausau is far different than a Dem in Madison.
Would like to know not only the Dem/GOP breakdown but where those voters reside.
A Dem in Wausau is far different than a Dem in Madison.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 9:46 am to SirWinston
One thing people seem to be missing is that a huge number of Democrats do well because they blatantly LIE about their agenda. 60-65% of Americans are NOT on board for the Bernie agenda, even "moderate" Democrats, but when an Obama or Hillary run for office they don't talk about taking everyone's guns, destroying the health care system as it exists today, love for all things Communist, etc. Bernie does. He is a true believer, and over the course of 4 or 5 months of general election campaigning I can guaran-damn-tee he is going to say a lot of shite that will scare the hell out of your average soccer mom/boomer retiree. Because he isn't scared to say what the Democrats REALLY want.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 9:51 am to Roaad
quote:
, ME, and CO are not tossups.
Maine could get you a couple...
Posted on 2/24/20 at 10:01 am to pankReb
quote:
I think Virginia is actually purple but had a fluke voting season.
I’m not saying Trump can’t carry Virginia but a 3peat isn’t a fluke. It’s a trend.
Virginia Recent Presidential Elections:
2016
Dem: 49.8% Rep: 44.4%
2012
Dem: 51.2% Rep: 47.3%
2008
Dem: 52.6% Rep: 46.3%
2004
Dem: 45.6% Rep: 53.8%
2000
Dem: 44.4% Rep: 52.5%
Voting History For Virginia:
1972: R
1976: R
1980: R
1984: R
1988: R
1992: R
1996: R
2000: R
2004: R
2008: D
2012: D
2016: D
LINK
Posted on 2/24/20 at 10:05 am to SirWinston
I’ve got Colorado, Virginia , Nevada and Minnesota going blue. Throw in an electoral vote or 2 out of Maine and Bernie finishes around 222 EVs. Not a bad showing at all but he will lose.
This post was edited on 2/24/20 at 10:07 am
Posted on 2/24/20 at 10:07 am to Magician2
quote:
The name calling is super petty I just think the actual body of work he's done far outweighs his behavior.
Democrats take trumps words seriously, but not his intentions and actions.
Republicans don’t take his exact words seriously, but do for his intentions and actions.
This post was edited on 2/24/20 at 10:33 am
Posted on 2/24/20 at 10:09 am to SirWinston
i actually think the OP map is pretty good. Bernie is an autoloss in states like FL, Ohio and NC.
I doubt he plays well in PA or MI either
I doubt he plays well in PA or MI either
Posted on 2/24/20 at 10:24 am to SportTiger1
Maps is pretty good, but very optimistic to call New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada and Virginia toss up states. They are now solid blue. Bernie will win those states easily.
It’s likely that Minnesota will go his way and I wouldn’t be surprised if PA went blue again. Lots of people struggling in PA that’ll go for “free stuff”.
The Reagan / Mondale map just isn’t a possibility today; too many hard blue states for that. The establishment left may not like Bernie, but a lot of the people on the left are ready for Socialism, or at least the bullshite “Nordic” vision of it rattling around their heads.
Bernie will be well funded and dangerous. In more ways than just the election.
It’s likely that Minnesota will go his way and I wouldn’t be surprised if PA went blue again. Lots of people struggling in PA that’ll go for “free stuff”.
The Reagan / Mondale map just isn’t a possibility today; too many hard blue states for that. The establishment left may not like Bernie, but a lot of the people on the left are ready for Socialism, or at least the bullshite “Nordic” vision of it rattling around their heads.
Bernie will be well funded and dangerous. In more ways than just the election.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 10:31 am to SirWinston
I really want to believe that most democrats would reject socialism more than what this map shows.
Even if they stay home.
Even if they stay home.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 10:35 am to RemouladeSawce
quote:
Those 29 FL EVs in the bag already is yuuuuge.
Ain't no way senior citizens and Cubans are voting for a socialist.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 10:54 am to Vacherie Saint
quote:
I really want to believe that most democrats would reject socialism more than what this map shows.
Even if they stay home.
You would hope; but people today aren't afraid of socialism. Younger people even view it favorably; they've never really lived through seeing what it really looks like.
The fall of communism is a relic of the past. Other than a few spots here and there, like Venezuela, which the media has repressed, it all been moonbeams and sunshine selling the idea of how great things are in the nordic countries. Which oddly enough, have all been rolling back those policies because they can't keep up with the costs.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 10:58 am to SirWinston
you are ignoring polls showing every dem wins
every dem.
no exceptions.
people will be voting against trump.
every dem.
no exceptions.
people will be voting against trump.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 10:58 am to RolltidePA
I don't see The Bern winning MN. Trump was only down 1.5% to Clinton.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 11:01 am to SirWinston
I think Dems might get one from Nebraska but Rep will get one from Maine. Those are the only 2 states I believe with split votes.
North Carolina could be a toss up depending on the nominee.
North Carolina could be a toss up depending on the nominee.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 11:02 am to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:DE does NOT like Bernie.
Doubt it.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 11:04 am to CelticDog
quote:National polling is useless.
you are ignoring polls showing every dem wins
All the Dems will dominate in CA and NY skewing the national popular vote.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 11:05 am to _Hurricane_
quote:
I think people are underrating just how much moderate Dems don’t want a socialist president.
If you are right, and the mainstream Dems stay home, this could be a huge night for down ballot for Republicans.
We'll know if the Democrats start fundraising hard for congressional candidates in the last couple of months. If their message is to "get out and vote, even if you don't like either Presidential candidate".
Posted on 2/24/20 at 11:06 am to SirWinston
Didn’t Virginia just vote to allocate their EV’s the the national popular vote winner regardless? How many other states have done that? Trump may very well win Virginia because of their own dumbassery.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 11:08 am to TheFonz
I dont think that goes in effect until a certain number of states jump on board
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