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re: The Official Thread: Russia invades Ukraine

Posted on 4/25/22 at 12:39 pm to
Posted by Lima Whiskey
Member since Apr 2013
22594 posts
Posted on 4/25/22 at 12:39 pm to
quote:

Mariapol still hasn’t completely capitulated.


I have to head out, but that’s worth talking about.

The Ukrainians had 8,000 men there.

Up to 2,000 men are still bunkered down in the foundry. Around 1,500 surrendered.

That means the Russians killed 4,000.

The war isn't going well for Ukraine.
Posted by narddogg81
Vancouver
Member since Jan 2012
22133 posts
Posted on 4/25/22 at 1:09 pm to
quote:

The war isn't going well for Ukraine.
it's going worse for Russia relative to what they were trying to accomplish. They have managed to almost capture a single city in over 2 months of fighting (the lowest possible hanging fruit, a city sandwiched between Crimea and the pro separatist areas), while losing upwards of 25% of their own combat effectiveness. At three minimum they have lost 400+ tanks and over 1500 other armored vehicles, and around 50 fixed wing aircraft and helicopters. Those are just the ones that can be confirmed directly from photographic evidence as individual assets by open source intelligence projects. They have lost at least 2 major surface vessels in embarrassing fashion, and their military prestige they have carefully built over the last 2 decades surrounding their weapons systems is in complete shambles, all the other dirtbag countries are questioning if they should buy Russian stuff now. All this with what should be overwhelming numerical and tactical superiority on paper.
This post was edited on 4/25/22 at 1:11 pm
Posted by Tigers2010a
Member since Jul 2021
3627 posts
Posted on 4/25/22 at 2:20 pm to
quote:

it's going worse for Russia relative to what they were trying to accomplish. They have managed to almost capture a single city in over 2 months of fighting (the lowest possible hanging fruit, a city sandwiched between Crimea and the pro separatist areas), while losing upwards of 25% of their own combat effectiveness.


Compared to what? Vietnam or Iraq or WW2 or Afghanistan? What we are seeing now is unique to first world WW3. BTW, what are Ukrainian losses?

Using the best of modern NATO equipment, the Ukrainians have fought but they are still going to lose.

Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42751 posts
Posted on 4/25/22 at 2:26 pm to
quote:


Compared to what?
Ukraine

quote]have fought but they are still going to lose.[/quote]

Probably so, but things haven’t gone as must thought. The underdog has made their marks and hasn’t gone under yet.
What was seen as another Crimea, another Georgia is definitely something else.
Posted by JayDeerTay84
Texas
Member since May 2013
9956 posts
Posted on 4/25/22 at 2:29 pm to
Russia never fully mobilized.

I agree they are making a piss of things, but this whole "special" operation has been half assed using the bare minimum.

Like most of their history, they just keep grinding at things until it works or until they all die....

Gonna be a lot more death and destruction on both sides I am afraid.
This post was edited on 4/25/22 at 2:32 pm
Posted by Tigers2010a
Member since Jul 2021
3627 posts
Posted on 4/25/22 at 2:35 pm to
Here is an interesting "smoking gun" interview of Zelensky's military advisor, Oleksiy Arestovych, in 2019. In the interview clip, he is asked about termination of the Donbass war due to joining NATO which leads to discussion of war with Russia. Arestovych declares attempting to join NATO will inevitably lead to war with Russia prior to actually joining NATo. Predicts war 99.9% probable between 2020-2022. Either Ukraine wins the war with Russia and then joins NATO or Ukraine as a whole is absorbed by Russia.

Ukraine leadership knew their actions would lead inevitably to war with Russia.

1:30 clip

Full interview here (which I haven't watched yet):

Full Interview

This post was edited on 4/25/22 at 2:46 pm
Posted by narddogg81
Vancouver
Member since Jan 2012
22133 posts
Posted on 4/25/22 at 2:44 pm to
quote:

Using the best of modern NATO equipment, the Ukrainians have fought but they are still going to lose.
lol what? the only thing they have from nato are some manpads and atgms. they are fighting primarily with more obsolete versions of what russia is using
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42751 posts
Posted on 4/25/22 at 3:07 pm to
quote:


Ukraine leadership knew their actions would lead inevitably to war with Russia.


Actually he said Ukraine couldn’t survive Russian imperialism by staying neutral.
Posted by lowspark12
nashville, tn
Member since Aug 2009
22596 posts
Posted on 4/25/22 at 3:10 pm to
Over the last 2 to 3 weeks, the quality and quantity of weapons being committed to Ukraine has increased… given that they already have a manpower advantage, it’s not crazy to think Ukraine “wins” this conflict… or at the very least, it regresses to the stalemate it’s been for the last 8 years.

Neither side is going to pull off major offensives imo… this thing is headed for a staled out war of attrition…
Posted by LeClerc
USVI
Member since Oct 2012
2841 posts
Posted on 4/25/22 at 3:13 pm to
quote:

This guy doesn't buy the Scott Ritter feint argument, he says Russia definitely scrapped Plan A. But, he sees a slow chokeout coming now in the east. This makes me sad if he is right. Dreizin report.


Russian propaganda site.
Posted by omegaman66
greenwell springs
Member since Oct 2007
27356 posts
Posted on 4/25/22 at 3:16 pm to
quote:

In Russia and China, you get thrown in jail or disappear for having a different opinion than the government.


You left off the USA???
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42751 posts
Posted on 4/25/22 at 3:19 pm to
quote:



Neither side is going to pull off major offensives imo… this thing is headed for a staled out war of attrition…

If that’s the case Putin is a big loser having riled NATO up, and pushed Finland, Sweden and Ukraine closer to NATO as they embarrassed their military.
Posted by Kansas City King
Columbia, MO
Member since Oct 2020
3685 posts
Posted on 4/25/22 at 3:26 pm to
Finland and Sweden are set to apply for NATO membership next month

LINK
This post was edited on 4/25/22 at 3:53 pm
Posted by lowspark12
nashville, tn
Member since Aug 2009
22596 posts
Posted on 4/25/22 at 3:29 pm to
quote:

that’s the case Putin is a big loser having riled NATO up, and pushed Finland, Sweden and Ukraine closer to NATO as they embarrassed their military.


It will have been a complete and total disaster if that happens… Russia will likely have some territorial gains, but a heavy price… and their (likely) pre-war goals of regime change, fracturing the west, curtailing NATO expansion, etc will be failures.
Posted by NoTSquirrely
Member since Apr 2022
77 posts
Posted on 4/25/22 at 4:34 pm to
quote:

"We didn't give a damn about our lives when we saw [how a child's life was taken], when we realized that these are not people, these are beasts, these are creatures who can afford to kill a child. These are not human beings. So I think that I ended up here in the right way, on the right path," Zaur, a soldier talks about the battles fought


The BAD guys
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 4/25/22 at 5:39 pm to
I've been on the beach in Cabo since the middle of last week, has the Russian offensive in the east started yet?

If so, how much progress has Russia made? Do they control the Donbas yet? Since this offensive has been Russia's plan A all along, they must be showing that dominance they faked everyone out by hiding in the North of Ukraine?
Posted by TigerDoc
Texas
Member since Apr 2004
11914 posts
Posted on 4/25/22 at 5:45 pm to
From Nathan Ruser:

LINK
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 4/25/22 at 5:57 pm to
So according to those maps, they haven't really changed a whole lot since the middle of last week.

For the anti-ukraine folks on here, would you consider Russia's progress since the start of the 2nd phase, good, bad, or mediocre?
Posted by JayDeerTay84
Texas
Member since May 2013
9956 posts
Posted on 4/25/22 at 6:11 pm to
quote:

For the anti-ukraine folks on here, would you consider Russia's progress since the start of the 2nd phase, good, bad, or mediocre?


I am ANTI both but what is good? What are the metrics one would use?

The 1st phase was over 2 months and the 2nd one is less than a week old.

Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 4/25/22 at 6:59 pm to
For Good: Substantial (20K+) forward movement of the front lines across the majority of the front. Mediocre: 10K forward movement of the front lines across 50% of the front.
Bad: Anything less than Mediocre.

Maybe my expectations are too high, what would you define good/mediocre/bad as?
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