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Location:greenwell springs
Biography:Graduated from LSU
Interests:Hunting, Fishing and www.survival-manual.com
Occupation:Ex football fan
Number of Posts:27209
Registered on:10/9/2007
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quote:

Suspect identified as an "emotionally disturbed person,"


Wow really going out on a limb there!
Sounds like we struck a deal with one person in Iran. Then the IRGC will break the deal they never agree to and a second war will start and the 60 day clock is rest to zero and a technically different war will begin.
quote:

I cant wait to see the deal he signs


Why? Any deal with the IRGC is irrelevant. Any agreements will be broken. When they are broken I expect we will pretend they have not been broken. Allowing the IRGC to continue means the IRGC gets the win.

I will stand on what I have always said. IF Trump knuckles under and quits then he is a stupid arse idiot.

but

If he doesn't drop a single bomb going forward but we topple the IRGC from within via coup and uprising of the people then it was the best option going forward.

My pipe dream is that there is a ton of shite going on behind the scenes that we are working on to do one or all of the things below:
a. strike a deal with member of the military and or IRGC to revolt.
b. setting up an insurgency within the Iranian borders.
c. buying time to all the IRGC to grow weary (not their leaders) as well as the paid mercenaries from foreign countries that there right now.
d. coerce our allies to actual take a role in the fight.
e. Allow time for Lebanon to play out so that Israel is not fighting on multiple fronts. (pick off each group (Houthies, Hezbollah, IRGC, IRAQ factions etc)

Screw him or genius. I have no idea. We will all find out at a the same time.
Its almost like they are dims in disguise.... almost. Nah, that would be crazier than republican voting against what they want.
Hmmmmm I wonder what never Trumpers would say if Tulsi's husband was on his deathbed and Tulsi did not resign. I don't imagine it would be anything complementary.
quote:

The practical indicator won’t be economic collapse, it will be something humanitarian like plague or starvation. The real question is whether the US has the stomach to accept the optics of laying siege and starving a nation into surrender, like the Israelis are doing in Gaza? It seems apparent the IRGC doesn’t think it will.



I don't think it will be economic collapse or humanitarian disaster.

It will be to bring down morale of the foot soldiers when they aren't being paid or paid very little. Then the rebels will be release to us guerilla warfare attacks against the IRGC directly. Sniping them at check points, strafing them with drive bys anytime they are spotted out in public. Even direct attacks by large groups on their buildings when they are weak and the insurgency is swelling in power.

Desertions will become the norm and the regime will soon topple.

So it will be by force. Not by economics alone and certainly not by starving the county to death which would basically be eating at them from the innocent up towards the worst actors last.
quote:


The current plan is obviously economic death by strangulation, hoping that Iran will eventually concede and give up the Uranium and stop attacking ships in the strait and allow full travel



Not the plan.

They are moving towards a coup from within the borders of Iran, with a little outside support.

The IRGC would never willingly do anything we want.
quote:

frick this piece of shite. republicans are fricking useless


Are you confusing Thune with a republican?
Wait I was told Iranians didn't really support the previous secular govt??? Is this AI?
quote:

How does this happen?


It happens when you elect people to destroy the country you live in.

People think these leaders have regret, when this is exactly the outcome they were looking for.

Stop being perplexed when leaders do something that is so unbelievably stupid for someone to do IF they want what is best.

I disagree with Rubio! Making some progress with Iran on a deal is not a good thing. Nothing good can come from it. For the life of me I don't understand why they just don't agree with Trumps demands and then not follow through.
I had no idea that there was so much hate for people from the Eastern Mediterranean.
quote:

I’m sure there’s a lot of feel good Facebook profiles too.

It crazy to think anyone is going to risk everything to rise up, and then as soon as they succeed they will invite some bougey remnant of the past who’s lived a peaceful and anonymous life in the US to return and step in to enjoy the fruits of their labor.


Facebook profiles? No I am talking about the people in Iran waving actual flags at the risk of death.

47 years is not even close to "as soon as". Your dismissive attitude about buyers remorse being possible is comical. Are you familiar with Cuba? Are you familiar with NYC?

So, the tens of thousands of people killed by the IRGC were not real??? Your think they were pro Islam?

The only thing accurate in your post is that Pahlavi has been living in exile in the US.

quote:

This is NAFO style fanfic


Is that despite the people flying the old Iranian flag?
Is that despite them chanting his name during protest?
quote:

I think that is why US and Israel were trying to get a former president to lead the coup much like Delcy in Venezuela. They wanted a coup among the elites and middle class that could be negotiated on more "bourgeois" understandings than "proletarian" ones.


The people are crying for the crown prince. And the crown prince would be an friend to the US without any desire for nukes. The people that will do the revolting are going to determine the next ruler and that have already spoken on who that will be. Anything else will be a misstep by the USA.

----- imho
quote:

How do you know this?


Are you claiming you didn't know this already?
quote:

And if that does happen, you just know he'll say that was his plan all along


It was the plan all along. I was calling it in here from early in the war. And then after the fact we find out that the Kurds screwed it all up. Therefore the delay is longer than was planned. Probably lost two weeks.
Talks:
IRGC is stalling for time.
Trump is stalling for time.

Neither side is serious about the talks.

Each is stalling for their own reasons. The IRGC is stalling hoping Trump dies or something.

Trump is setting the stage behind the scenes to end the war by a coup from within Iran.
quote:

This negotiations and delay bullshite is the dumbest thing I have seen Trump do since supporting the jab. Irans response to negotiations is the same exact thing everytime. It’s past time to take out more IRGC members.


That is what he has been doing in my opinion. Working hard on taking out the IRGC. Hope I am right.

From the beginning I have said the goal was to NEVER send in military personnel like is going on in Ukraine. The goal is to have the Iranians do it.

A month ago I said I was surprised the Iranian military hadn't already started fighting the IRGC. Now it might finally have started. Militia in the Southeast and the soon the kurds in the Northwest will start picking off the IRGC. The regular military will at some point do the same. It will start slow, gain momentum which will cause the IRGC to abandon their post.

All of this negotiation talk is and always has been pointless. Pointless if you thing the were going to surrender or pointless if you think they are going to remain in power.

Trump knows this but is simply buying time for air defense of our allies and preparation's inside of Iran (arms/demoralize the enemy).

What has happened over the last month. Iran has greatly reduced their attacks on surrounding countries. Had we keep bombing that wouldn't have happened. More allied lives would be lost. More damage to oil production in the ME which would keep oil prices high for at least a couple of years.

Like I keep saying. Stop listening to what they say. We are at war and telling the truth for leaders is often counter productive.