re: The Official Thread: Russia invades Ukraine

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It will have been a complete and total disaster if that happens… Russia will likely have some territorial gains, but a heavy price… and their (likely) pre-war goals of regime change, fracturing the west, curtailing NATO expansion, etc will be failures.

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At least Putin didn’t leave $300 billion (20% of a year’s GDP in Russia) in Western banks to be frozen by sanctions when he pulled the trigger on the invasion.

Because that would be like leaving your wallet with Saddam while invading Iraq, and then being routed before taking Baghdad.

What does Russian state tv say they have planned for Transnistria?

War could see Ukraine's population fall by a third
by University of St Andrews.

"With long-term political and economic instability, refugees are not only unlikely to return, but young adults and families still in Ukraine may also decide to leave the country eventually."

The researchers conducted a series of population projections to assess the impact of the invasion calculated on the basis of potential deaths, refugees and their likelihood of staying abroad for a long period.





The UN, which is working alongside other organisations to provide help to people in Ukraine, says it is offering humanitarian assistance "wherever necessary and possible". This includes:

giving cash to people for basics like food and rent
delivering supplies from west to east, including food and tarpaulins for homes damaged by shelling
providing folding beds to people in bomb shelters
setting up reception and transit points for internally-displaced people
About 12 million people are also thought to be stranded or unable to leave areas affected by the fighting.

The EU has granted Ukrainians who flee the war a blanket right to stay and work throughout its 27 member nations for up to three years.

They will also receive social welfare and access to housing, medical treatment and schools.

bbc

These numbers are to low imho. Jody is just getting started.

Option A. Stay on the front line in a proxy war between NATO and Russia.

Option B. Free vacation for at least three years.

Or the will to fight when your family has left, with no plans to return. The answer to that is no.

Russia’s Not-So-Secret Weapon Against NATO and the West: Refugees. This new hybrid warfare was used in Syria.

In July 2021, Moscow’s puppet regime in Belarus began brutally driving thousands of desperate migrants to the Polish border. The forced migration was part of the hybrid warfare strategy designed by Moscow, and the West was ill-prepared for it.

Among the assumed blessings of this brave new world was the “right of migration,” which would help erase nations determining their own culture, economies, and polity.

You can blame the globalists for that.

But pushing for a borderless world not only undermined the stability of the nation-state; it created new vectors for bad actors to attack their enemies. As an institutional policy, the right of migration has failed the test and left us tap dancing through a minefield of social, economic, and political problems.

Where’s my cheap cooler, Chinaboi?

ETA: Remember the time you used TD to promote your business? Receipts

Show me the refugee breakdown of women, children, men. Then show me how many male fighting age volunteers are currently flooding into Ukraine to fight.

This is when Putin will do something drastic and deadly.

This is exactly what’s going to happen. Ukraine isn’t going to be satisfied with pre Feb24th borders.

They will have the equipment, morale, and moral standing to pursue 2014 borders.

Russia should sue for peace now, otherwise no one is going to feel bad for them when Ukraine says “nah” in a few months except drooling, wheezing posters on this board.

What you’re describing is a NATO/Pentagon wet dream… not saying it won’t happen, but Russia will have a say in it.

As the saying goes… your enemy gets a vote.

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The vast majority of the refugees are women and children, old and young. Most of the military age males have stayed behind to fight.

The Ukraine Army can train and equip about 150,000 infantrymen and about 30,000 specialists every 90 days. There is currently a several month backlog of men signed up and waiting for training.

That training capacity appears to be at least 5x and maybe as high as 15x the rate of combat attrition.

The Ukraine army is getting stronger, larger, better equipped, and better trained with each passing day. They're not about to run out of men without a paradigm shift in the battlefield (nuclear or chemical weapons).

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Ukrainians hate for Moscow is rooted in a deep generational family memory. Stalin "exiled" 5 to 6 million of the elite of Ukraine. They were never seen again. He then starved another 5 to 6 million to death while he exported grain for cash.

That history won't be forgotten. Ukrainians have more than the will to fight, they want revenge.