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re: Proof that the polls are not accurate
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:28 pm to NawlinsTiger9
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:28 pm to NawlinsTiger9
quote:
The states you mentioned are going red. Waste of resources to campaign there.
If Biden was truly up 6% nationally, Georgia, Texas, and Ohio would not automatically be going red. They'd be very much in play and possibly even set to go blue.
That's my entire point. The RCP Average has Biden up 6% nationally. The RCP Average of state polls has Biden leading not only in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, but also in former Trump states of Arizona, North Carolina, and even Ohio. The RCP Average of the polls currently projects Biden to win the Electoral College 353-185.
The RCP Average has Trump only up 1.3% in Georgia
The RCP Average has Trump only up 3.5% in Texas
Most telling is the fact that the RCP Average of polls has Biden leading Ohio by 2.4% yet Trump has not once visited Ohio to try to defend that state. Nor has Biden visited. Why would Biden not visit Ohio if he truly thought he was winning that state by 2.4%?
Also check Nevada. The RCP Average has Biden up 6% there. If that were true, why would Trump have visted Nevada 3 times so far this month? Wouldn't he be trying to defend Ohio before he wasted time in Nevada? And Kamala showed up in Nevada this month too.
You really think Biden leads Nevada by 6%? I don't.
1
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:28 pm to BHMKyle
Trump will still come to Florida at some point. No President is going to ignore Florida. I would think Florida is as close to a Republican lock as it has been in many elections.
Most people are happy with us not shutting down massively for Covid, which is a plus for Trump.
The Latino community in Florida has a large number of people from communist and socialist nations, and I guarantee a majority of them vote Trump over Biden. They are terrified of the ideas the left pushes right now, because they've heard these ideas before.
Most people are happy with us not shutting down massively for Covid, which is a plus for Trump.
The Latino community in Florida has a large number of people from communist and socialist nations, and I guarantee a majority of them vote Trump over Biden. They are terrified of the ideas the left pushes right now, because they've heard these ideas before.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:28 pm to BHMKyle
Trump has been NC at least once I think twice this month
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:30 pm to Covingtontiger77
quote:
So I guess Minnesota is out for MAGA?
I think Biden has got to be the favorite there, but based on demographic shifts I do think it could possibly be in play.
The fact that Trump has not visited there yet tells me they don't feel very confident in flipping it. We'll have to wait and see how it unfolds. My gut feeling is Biden will win Minnesota by 1-2%.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:32 pm to GeneralLee
Democrats have well-funded and well-organized get out the vote campaigns in Georgia, Texas, and Ohio as well as the usual swing states.
I am amused that Trump is wasting his time in Bemidji, MN. LOL! Minnesota is safe for Biden.
I am amused that Trump is wasting his time in Bemidji, MN. LOL! Minnesota is safe for Biden.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:32 pm to BHMKyle
Trump held a rally in MN during the DNC he literally has one there tonight.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:35 pm to BHMKyle
Again, you're basically asking for the Dems to make the same mistakes they did last time in assuming certain states are in the bag when they may not be.
No way they're going all-in trying to flip GA and TX before making sure much more winnable states are represented in their campaign efforts.
No way they're going all-in trying to flip GA and TX before making sure much more winnable states are represented in their campaign efforts.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:45 pm to Magician2
quote:
Your post unfortunately was very premature.
Trump is literally doing 2 rallies in Ohio on Monday and he's doing a rally tomorrow in N.C. he also had a rally last week in N.C.
If that's true, that's not a good sign for Trump. I'm not looking out ahead, I'm only looking at where he's been so far.
I'm not surprised at North Carolina. North Carolina is a state that went for Obama in 2008, and Trump only won it last time by 3.66%. It is shifting demographically towards the Dem's just as the Midwest appears to be slowly shifting to the GOP. You have a boatload of Californians moving into Raleigh.
NC and AZ should very much be in play despite going for Trump last time by more than 3%.
Trump campaigning in Ohio on the other hand is a very bad sign. It swung so far towards Trump in 2016 that it didn't even make sense. I would expect his margin to shrink from last time.
Ohio has voted within 4% of the national average in every election since 2000 up until '16.
It was within 4.0% of the national average in 2000.
It was within 0.4% of the national average in 2004.
It was within 2.7% of the national average in 2008.
It was within 0.9% of the national average in 2012.
Then Trump won it and it was 10.2% further to the GOP than the National average. That's an anomaly.
I would expect it to shrink back to about +5% for the GOP compared to the national average, so if Trump loses the popular vote by 2% like last time, he should win Ohio by 7%.
Ohio always leans more to the GOP than PA, WI, or Michigan. There is no way a GOP candidate can win those other 3 Midwestern states but lose Ohio.
It's one thing to campaign there one day just to shore things up. If Trump visits again, that's a bad sign.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:45 pm to NawlinsTiger9
Exactly. If Biden wins every state Hillary did and flips traditional blue states WI, MI, and PA back blue then he wins. It’s imperative Trump hold on to one of those.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:47 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
Uh huh. I fell for this crap in 2012. Not again. What are you getting at? 2012?
I think he's referencing a bunch of people on this board saying this about Romney over Obama. The one guy especially that worked for a major news outlet, was on here saying Romney was really being favored in the polls but they weren't reporting it to cover for Obama, etc. It was very convincing stuff like this.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:47 pm to EvrybodysAllAmerican
quote:
I think he's referencing a bunch of people on this board saying this about Romney over Obama. The one guy especially that worked for a major news outlet, was on here saying Romney was really being favored in the polls but they weren't reporting it to cover for Obama, etc. It was very convincing stuff like this.
was that the "Obama's done, it's over" phase on here?
Everybody's favorite Rassmussen poll got their asses handed to them in that election
This post was edited on 9/18/20 at 2:50 pm
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:55 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Now the polls are showing Biden up 6% on Trump (current RCP Average). It's easy to know with certainty that Biden does not truly lead by 6 points by watching where he's campaigning.
You're confusing a national poll with state electoral strategies.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:58 pm to BHMKyle
Posted on 9/18/20 at 3:35 pm to EvrybodysAllAmerican
His name was Joshua Chamberlain.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 3:39 pm to BHMKyle
Based on the by-election results more than polls, I think it will be a Trump landslide. All of the dem hoaxes and scams of the last four years, followed their deadly ineptitude dealing with cv19 and then followed up with riots, arson and looting will be very high in the minds of our good citizens.
A lot dems are going to get flushed.
A lot dems are going to get flushed.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 3:53 pm to Auburn1968
i agree with this in a fair election. But never underestimate the Dems willingness to lie, cheat, and steal. Theyre against voter ID and for mail in voting for a reason.
This post was edited on 9/18/20 at 3:54 pm
Posted on 9/18/20 at 3:56 pm to BHMKyle
I kind of wonder what the Trump team sees in Nevada to invest time and money there. There aren't enough people out in the desert to flip it red without surge in Reno and Vegas. Maybe they think there's hidden Trump voters (pissed off casino workers) ready to vote Trump after the lockdowns. But it's just not that many electoral votes. I'd much rather see him all over the Midwest. Way more EVs there.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 3:59 pm to EvrybodysAllAmerican
quote:
quote:
Uh huh. I fell for this crap in 2012. Not again. What are you getting at? 2012?
I think he's referencing a bunch of people on this board saying this about Romney over Obama. The one guy especially that worked for a major news outlet, was on here saying Romney was really being favored in the polls but they weren't reporting it to cover for Obama, etc. It was very convincing stuff like this.
Just seems like 2016 is the only possible relevant comparison to look to as far as polling numbers.
If you are looking to 2012, I'd argue Trump is Obama and Biden is Romney. I don't think it makes much sense to look at that election and any polling numbers in it either way, though.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 4:07 pm to BHMKyle
So looking out further to future stops, its somewhat of a mixed bag for Trump:
Between today and Tuesday, he has stops planned in Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania
IMO, if this is a close race that could go either way, the candidates will be campaigning in Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Michigan.
If Trump spends time in Ohio that's probably not a great sign. It's far worse if you see him go to Georgia or Texas
If Trump spends time in Minnesota, Nevada, or New Hampshire, that's a very good sign for his chances, IMO.
In the next four days he has stops planned for Ohio (bad sign) but also Minnesota (good sign). That's a wash IMO.
Put it this way though: This month Trump has made four stops in Hillary Clinton-won states (3 in Nevada and soon to be one in Minnesota). His event in Ohio on Monday is his first stop in a Trump-won 2016 state that was won by more than 4%.
Based on that, I'd say Trump is campaigning like he thinks he'll win.
Between today and Tuesday, he has stops planned in Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania
IMO, if this is a close race that could go either way, the candidates will be campaigning in Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Michigan.
If Trump spends time in Ohio that's probably not a great sign. It's far worse if you see him go to Georgia or Texas
If Trump spends time in Minnesota, Nevada, or New Hampshire, that's a very good sign for his chances, IMO.
In the next four days he has stops planned for Ohio (bad sign) but also Minnesota (good sign). That's a wash IMO.
Put it this way though: This month Trump has made four stops in Hillary Clinton-won states (3 in Nevada and soon to be one in Minnesota). His event in Ohio on Monday is his first stop in a Trump-won 2016 state that was won by more than 4%.
Based on that, I'd say Trump is campaigning like he thinks he'll win.
This post was edited on 9/18/20 at 4:31 pm
Posted on 9/18/20 at 4:10 pm to BHMKyle
quote:Tjis doesn't tell you anything. He can be ahead and still need to visit OH. You can't take a state like that for granted. Otoh, heading to NH or NV is not necessarily a good sign. It could just be a Hail Mary.
the next four days he has stops panned for Ohio (bad sign) but also Minnesota (good sign). That's a wash IMO
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