Proof that the polls are not accurate

Watch where the candidates are campaigning.

In 2016, Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1%. Now the polls are showing Biden up 6% on Trump (current RCP Average). It's easy to know with certainty that Biden does not truly lead by 6 points by watching where he's campaigning.

If he was truly up 6 points, he'd be looking to expand the map... He'd be campaigning in Georgia, Texas, Ohio, etc. But that's not what he's doing. And that's not where Trump is spending his time either.

According to the Chicago Tribune's tracker of campaign stops, here is where Biden has campaigned so far this month:

3- Wisconsin
3- Pennsylvania
2- Michigan
2- Florida

Zero stops in Ohio, Texas, or Georgia.... and also notably zero stops in Arizona or North Carolina which were narrow Trump victories in '16.

Let's look at where Kamala Harris is campaigning:

2- Wisconsin
1- Pennsylvania
1- Nevada
1- Florida

So again, she's focusing on the major battlegrounds of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Florida.... but also she's having to go and try to protect Nevada, a state won by Hillary in '16 by 2.4%.

If Biden was truly up by 6%, he and Harris wouldn't be having to waste their time in Nevada, nor would they be having to worry about states like Michigan and Wisconsin. They'd at the very least be focusing on North Carolina, Arizona, and/or Ohio but yet neither has had one event in those states this month.

Now let's check on where Trump has campaigned:

3- Nevada
2- Pennsylvania
2- Wisconsin
1- Michigan
1- Florida
1- Arizona

So Trump has visited Nevada more than any other state this month... a state he lost in '16. So he's the one who's actually spending the most capital trying to expand the map.

No stops in North Carolina, and obviously none in Ohio, Georgia, or Texas.

If you study where they are spending time and resources, this is not a Biden +6 race, not even close.

I think watching where the candidates campaign is the best way to track how close this race really is. If Trump suddenly starts campaigning in Ohio or Georgia, that's not at all a good sign. Likewise if Biden starts showing up in those states, it's also not a good sign.

On the flipside, if Trump keeps heading to Nevada, that's not a good sign for Biden. If he shows up in Minnesota or New Hampshire, then you know he's feeling good about where he stands.

This is a very close race. So far, with the exception of Trump's 3 trips to Nevada, the campaign stops have stayed away from states out on the fringes.

The real battlegrounds appear to be these:

Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Florida

These are states won by Trump in 2016 by 0.72%, 0.77%, and 1.20%, respectively.

For these 3 states to be by far the biggest focus for the campaigns, that tells me this election will again be decided by 2-3 points max. Biden may win, but he's not expecting on an Obama type victory that included NC, OH, etc.