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Message
re: Pennsylvania Final Early Vote Data
Posted on 11/4/24 at 9:07 am to John Barron
Posted on 11/4/24 at 9:07 am to John Barron
We still don't know just how much the GOP has cannabilized election day turnout. Hopefully, the big increase in early voting was new voters but we'll find out tomorrow. Like another poster mentioned the big question is how deeply Trump will cut into union members. That's what makes a landslide.
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Posted on 11/4/24 at 9:07 am to Big4SALTbro
I see TRUMP winning PA by 3%.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 9:07 am to GumboPot
quote:
Good question. I'm just trusting Mark Halperin on his 500K Democrat PA firewall number. I'm sure he's explained it but I have not heard it.
Guys, it's proportional to overall vote. I think we're expecting a lot less total votes in 2024 than 2020.
Therefore, your blue firewall doesn't need to be as big because there are also less red votes remaining proportionally.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 9:08 am to John Barron
quote:
does not see how they win Pennsylvania
We love our Amish, don't we? We have the best, the Amish are simply the best.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 9:08 am to JoylessMurderball
just win nevada and NH and none of this blue cheating wall shite even matters.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 9:09 am to GumboPot
quote:
Anyway, the Democrat firewall in PA is ~90,000 votes short
Dems in PA can make that up during a smoke break.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 9:09 am to John Barron
It’s hard to understand how democrats feel they can win the state when it was so close last time and now republicans are 700,000 votes ahead of the last election. If I was Harris and didn’t have a cheat set up I would be panicking.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 9:10 am to Big4SALTbro
You don’t understand how voter turnout is lower when there is no enthusiasm to vote for a candidate? Really?! It happens all the time with unpopular candidates
Posted on 11/4/24 at 9:10 am to John Barron
This is sort of rough estimation.
The official PA data, to be released by the state, was due this morning but was delayed until this afternoon.
Read into that what you will.
My suspicion is the data will look more favorable for Democrats than it should.
Read into that what you will.
The official PA data, to be released by the state, was due this morning but was delayed until this afternoon.
Read into that what you will.
My suspicion is the data will look more favorable for Democrats than it should.
Read into that what you will.
This post was edited on 11/4/24 at 9:12 am
Posted on 11/4/24 at 9:11 am to GumboPot
quote:
Draw your own conclusions.
Philly precincts going to have to report 110% plus turnout to push it over the top for Kamala. She’s done you can’t rig it that obvious without even MSM questioning the validity.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 9:11 am to John Barron
quote:
he does not see how they win Pennsylvania
Never underestimate the left’s willingness to do whatever it takes to gain/remain in power. They do not have moral constraints as do you and I.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 9:11 am to John Barron
That is amazing numbers for Trump. I kept waiting for a late city dump to get them close to 500k but I guess it wasn’t there. Even with Harris winning early vote independents their firewall is no more than 470k. Closer to 1.2 mil with independents in 2020.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 9:12 am to GumboPot
quote:
Anyway, the Democrat firewall in PA is ~90,000 votes short according to Halperin's magic number of 500K the Democrats need in early voting.
The part that still worries me is 90,000 votes can be manufactured in Philly.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 9:15 am to Mid Iowa Tiger
quote:
The part that still worries me is 90,000 votes can be manufactured in Philly.
90000 is beyond their ability.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 9:18 am to GumboPot
What was the firewall in '16 compared to '20?
Posted on 11/4/24 at 9:19 am to Big4SALTbro
quote:
I’d like to know the true number of Amish that are voting for the first time.
quote:
A report from Elizabethtown College estimated 90,000 Amish live in Pennsylvania and 84,000 live in Ohio, in addition to sizeable populations in Indiana, Wisconsin, New York and Missouri.
Smucker said there were 1,500-2,000 new voter registrants in his district who are Amish, adding he expects thousands more to cast ballots this cycle.
Smucker is Rep. Lloyd Smucker, the first Amish born member of Congress.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 9:21 am to Mid Iowa Tiger
500k is just for her to be in the realm of winning. It's likely closer to 600k for it to be a sure win. They can't manufacture enough votes to win that without drawing a lot of attention even by the MSM. It's not happening.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 9:21 am to Big4SALTbro
quote:
don’t see how they had a 1M vote firewall and barely won and yet now we think they only needed 500k
The 500k was based on independents going 70/30 in favor of Harris LOL
In reality they needed at least a 800k firewall assuming a normal independent split
Posted on 11/4/24 at 9:22 am to slapahoe
quote:
What was the firewall in '16 compared to '20?
I don't think it existed, didn't PA basically not have early voting until right before 2020? That was the big deal, they basically overrode the state constitution and just created mail in voting out of thin air because of COVID?
Posted on 11/4/24 at 9:24 am to Festus
quote:
quote:
Anyway, the Democrat firewall in PA is ~90,000 votes short
Dems in PA can make that up during a smoke break.
trump was up 800,000 last time and then came the 3 AM dumps and wiped it out. blatant fraud. have to out vote them on election day. hopefully all the dems stay home if they did not vote early. each hour it takes them top count their votes past midnight i am filing lawsuit after lawsuit. late counting is how they cheated last time.
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