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re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread
Posted on 4/22/26 at 10:07 am to Ailsa
Posted on 4/22/26 at 10:07 am to Ailsa
quote:
Maybe they are some of the "immigrants" that go home and visit their families and vacation in the place they came from.
Or the "immigrants" who engage in massive fraud to steal millions in US tax dollars and then go home with suitcases full of cash to fund terrorist activities in the place they came from.
1
Posted on 4/22/26 at 10:21 am to PsychTiger
This is also a way to force either Iran to show that Khomani II is alive and managing this disaster, and thus he is a hardliner, or he is incapacitated/dead and it has all went farce and the IRGC has been lying to the population about ruling based on his edicts.
Time is on the US’s side as long as the blockade stays in place and it just boxed the IRGC into a tighter corner.
Time is on the US’s side as long as the blockade stays in place and it just boxed the IRGC into a tighter corner.
This post was edited on 4/22/26 at 10:30 am
Posted on 4/22/26 at 10:32 am to Auburn1968
quote:
I hope there is are a lot of cards we aren't showing.
Well their oil wells are about to get ruined from sitting there being unused and not properly shut down because the storage is just about filled up. Additionally, with the blockade in place, supplies will start to be come scarce. Unfortunately that affects the innocent Iranians as well, but puts a huge strain on the Regime.
Also their income flow has been cutoff and as a result, no one is getting paid and after a while when you can't buy food, water and necessities, defections will escalate. Resources will become scare soon in the cities and you will start seeing things fall apart rapidly.
The blockade is putting immense pressure on them, and if they don't come to the table within the next handful of days, their infrastructure will soon be taken out and then all kinds of misery will be dealt to the regime.
Posted on 4/22/26 at 10:33 am to BayouBengal51
Posted on 4/22/26 at 10:42 am to BayouBengal51
quote:
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson to BBC:
How long before another spokesperson contradicts this spokesperson?
Posted on 4/22/26 at 10:43 am to BayouBengal51
quote:
Iran will be shutting in oil wells soon if they dont have a place to send their oil.
And this oil well issue is not easily or quickly fixable. Once it happens, it is done.
So, there is a hard deadline.
Posted on 4/22/26 at 10:45 am to BayouBengal51
quote:
IRGC senior officials did not allow an Iranian negotiating team to go to Islamabad to meet with US negotiators, and rejected the content that Iranian negotiators discussed with the US in the first round of talks.
Posted on 4/22/26 at 10:49 am to ScottFowler
quote:
Iran will be shutting in oil wells soon if they dont have a place to send their oil.
And this oil well issue is not easily or quickly fixable. Once it happens, it is done. So, there is a hard deadline.
I know nothing about oil and gas, but isn’t Bahrain, Qatar, UAE and maybe Saudi and Iraq also facing this issue?
I understood all these countries are facing a storage problem if ships aren’t running the gas/oil out to market.
Posted on 4/22/26 at 10:51 am to chalupa
quote:
Hold up. We have US citizens in Iran? WTF is this?
It was reported last summer, after we "obliterated" their nuclear program, that there were more than 25K US citizens living in Iran.
I'm sure that number is smaller now, but there are US citizens living everywhere in the world.
Posted on 4/22/26 at 10:55 am to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/22/26 at 10:56 am to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/22/26 at 10:58 am to hawgfaninc
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Food for thought.
Welcome to the New Great Game: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not an outburst, it is a long-planned move on a board Washington has been studying for decades.
Donald Trump’s Iran gamble is being judged against the wrong baseline. Nobody serious expected regime change by airstrike; the bet of Operation Epic Fury was narrow but brutal, halt Iran’s march to a bomb, break the infrastructure that threatens Americans and allies, restore deterrence and, by closing Hormuz, demonstrate that even in a “multipolar” age the United States can still reach for the world’s most strategic chokepoint.
The question is not whether Iran looks worse than in peacetime, but whether it is weaker than the Iran we were otherwise on track to face: near-weapons-grade enrichment, hardened sites, ICBMs a tested weapon within a year, and implicitly backed by China. Against that counterfactual, a regime that has lost senior commanders, core nuclear facilities and major war-making capacity has not “emerged stronger”.
Nor did this war suddenly hand power to the IRGC. The Guards have run Iran for years; the conflict stripped away the clerical façade and killed many of their most capable officers. They are not true religious believers but calculating military men, interested in power, money and survival more than theology. Such men can be negotiated with, if the terms strip away their most dangerous options. A discredited IRGC with degraded capabilities and no viable nuclear path is weaker than the old clerical-IRGC hybrid with a bomb option. This looks less like a revolutionary vanguard and more like a brittle military dictatorship.
Venezuela shows why this is not neo-conservatism in disguise. There, Washington helped force Nicolás Maduro from power with sanctions, isolation and support for the opposition, but it did not send Marines into Caracas or attempt to remake the country in America’s image. The objective was pressure and transition, not permanent US stewardship. The same bounded playbook now applies to Iran: maximum economic and military pressure to fracture the regime from within, not an occupation or bayonet-installed government.
Seen from that perspective, Hormuz is not a shocking improvisation but the central artery in a strategy that has been war gamed out : use control of sea-lanes and finance to punish Iran first, but also to remind China and Europe that their growth models still depend on flows Washington can disrupt. What cannot be allowed is for this world to turn Iran into a Chinese staging point on the Gulf.
The endgame in this first round of the New Great Game is narrow and knowable: no enrichment, real caps on missile reconstitution, no Chinese forward base, no open chequebook for terror, and enough sustained pressure that when the Iranian people finally move, they are pushing against a weakened security state rather than a confident nuclear one.
The world has changed; Iran has lost the war, Pax Americana is dead. Trump’s national security doctrine, coercion without occupation, leverage without crusades, is the planned successor, and the Strait of Hormuz is its chosen proving ground. Is the Strait of Malacca next?
Why should investors care? Because if this strategy succeeds, it removes a looming nuclear breakout risk, curtails state-sponsored terrorism, re-establishes a credible fear of US hard power and, for a time, compresses the geopolitical risk premium that has hung over energy, shipping and global equities for a generation. It offers the possibility, however briefly, of a peace dividend: lower volatility, higher investment and a world that, for a moment, rhymes with the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Cold War.
In that window, capital will scramble to reprice assets that assumed perpetual Middle Eastern and Nuclear escalation. The New Great Game is not just about guns and chokepoints; it is about who captures that re-rating.
Posted on 4/22/26 at 11:01 am to hawgfaninc
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Iran: As of April 21, Iran’s airspace has partially reopened. U.S. citizens should leave Iran now, monitor local media for updates, and consult with commercial carriers for additional information on flights out of Iran. Americans seeking to depart Iran may also depart by land to Armenia, Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and Turkmenistan. U.S. citizens should not travel to Afghanistan, Iraq, or the Pakistan-Iran border area. Be aware that the Iranian government may prevent U.S. citizens from departing or charge an “exit fee” for departures from Iran. U.S.-Iranian dual nationals must exit Iran on Iranian passports.
Posted on 4/22/26 at 11:07 am to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/22/26 at 11:29 am to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/22/26 at 11:32 am to hawgfaninc
quote:
the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not an outburst, it is a long-planned move on a board Washington has been studying for decades.
Of all the dumb talking points, and there have been plenty, the suggestion that our military leaders and the administration did not foresee and plan for Iran closing the SOH may be the dumbest. It has been discussed for decades, including by Donald Trump long before he was president. We knew the Ayatollah's location and schedule moment by moment; does anybody really believe we didn't know their plan to close the strait?
The problem is we dithered for all those decades while Iran accumulated military power, until actual closure became inevitable. That was understood before the current conflict began. The bombing campaign and the subsequent naval blockade (after peace talks failed) were also obviously part of the plan. The US could've started the blockade on day one, but they waited until the regime made it clear to the world that their strategy and preparation has always been to hold the entire ME hostage by obstructing free shipping in and out of the gulf.
No plan is foolproof, we'll see what the future holds, but to suggest that the US has been reacting to Iran's actions, instead of following a plan, is brain dead logic.
Posted on 4/22/26 at 11:44 am to Ailsa
quote:
PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST POSTED and Iran may want to listen:
"Will President Trump go full Sherman in the war on Iran?"
Union General Sherman went full SCORCHED EARTH during the Civil War.
Bridge and power plant day is still on the table, IRGC
This post was edited on 4/22/26 at 11:46 am
Posted on 4/22/26 at 11:47 am to wdhalgren
Posted on 4/22/26 at 11:52 am to BayouBengal51
quote:
The blockade is putting immense pressure on them, and if they don't come to the table within the next handful of days, their infrastructure will soon be taken out and then all kinds of misery will be dealt to the regime.
That all makes sense, but I think the IRGC nutjobs will let their population starve while they stay well fed long before they give up unless there is a dating service to arrange for them to meet their promised 72 virgins.
Posted on 4/22/26 at 12:00 pm to Auburn1968
Not sure why any speedboat that leaves Iranian waters is not droned.
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