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re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread
Posted on 3/9/26 at 12:11 am to hawgfaninc
Posted on 3/9/26 at 12:11 am to hawgfaninc
Interesting analysis, but I don't see oil going back to $40 barring a collapse in demand. It's only been in that range for 3 relatively short intervals over the last 20 years, and two of those were the sharp global economic downturns in 2009 and 2020. There's been a lot of monetary inflation during that time period, which has increased the cost of doing business in every industry (and there's lots more inflation in the pipeline, IMO, due to unpayable debt globally).
I'm not claiming to be a petroleum industry expert, but my guess is that a $40 a barrel would be unprofitable for a significant chunk of current producers and not profitable enough to incentivize and finance future exploration and development for most others.
TLDR version: governments can print money to monetize debt, but they can't print oil. Even without supply disruptions, the trend in oil prices will be significantly higher over time. That, IMO, is one reason that control of oil producing regions will continue to be hotly contested.
I'm not claiming to be a petroleum industry expert, but my guess is that a $40 a barrel would be unprofitable for a significant chunk of current producers and not profitable enough to incentivize and finance future exploration and development for most others.
TLDR version: governments can print money to monetize debt, but they can't print oil. Even without supply disruptions, the trend in oil prices will be significantly higher over time. That, IMO, is one reason that control of oil producing regions will continue to be hotly contested.
This post was edited on 3/9/26 at 12:36 am
1
Posted on 3/9/26 at 12:23 am to hawgfaninc
Posted on 3/9/26 at 12:32 am to hawgfaninc
that’s good
Posted on 3/9/26 at 12:41 am to idlewatcher
Posted on 3/9/26 at 5:50 am to wdhalgren
quote:You are 100% correct. Anything much below $60 per BBL is temporary. Supply will go down at that price and the price will respond.
I'm not claiming to be a petroleum industry expert, but my guess is that a $40 a barrel would be unprofitable for a significant chunk of current producers and not profitable enough to incentivize and finance future exploration and development for most others.
Posted on 3/9/26 at 6:51 am to Penrod
Is this the day Iran is supposed to unleash its modern arsenal on us?
Posted on 3/9/26 at 7:06 am to hawgfaninc
quote:
First of All, We Iranians can't care less. That oil was our CURSE. It was never spent on the welfare of people, it was being spent on terror. to pay scumbags like you probably. So frick off.
Second: your favorite regime, delierately attacked Arab's energy infrastructure, and they are retaliating. so, again, frick OFF. Stick to your Gaza, Palestine those crap, leave Iranians alone. we will rip you apart. frick off Jihadi mogol.
#ThankYouTrump #ThankYouNetanyahu
Didn't the Shah get deposed within half a decade of nationalizing oil as a means (at least partly) to fund initiatives to get social unrest under control without having to use the SAVAK cudgel?
Posted on 3/9/26 at 7:09 am to Murph4HOF
The X idiots are concerned that BAPCO refinery makes crude oil.
Posted on 3/9/26 at 7:16 am to CitizenK
quote:
Bahrain
Lets all hope the camels are ok.
Posted on 3/9/26 at 7:19 am to Woolfpack
Supposedly we struck some Iranian vessels. They have been using container and oil tanker ships to disguise mobile missile and drone launching platforms, so maybe these were some of those ships.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.This post was edited on 3/9/26 at 7:21 am
Posted on 3/9/26 at 7:19 am to Diego Ricardo
quote:
Didn't the Shah get deposed within half a decade of nationalizing oil as a means (at least partly) to fund initiatives to get social unrest under control without having to use the SAVAK cudgel?
That was about kicking the British parent company of BP out of Iran. Exxon and others took its place. The Shah would have not been deposed if he had ordered Iran's military to control commie protests in Tehran. Those protests were Russian backed. There had been a communist element especially among academia in Iran for decades. France had given shelter to the mullahs for decades. France and England flew them back in to take over the protests as nice guys.
Posted on 3/9/26 at 7:23 am to BayouBengal51
Posted on 3/9/26 at 7:30 am to BayouBengal51
I doubt Mojtaba Khamenei is even alive.... I think the regime is desperately trying to keep his true fate under wraps in an effort to appear legitimate/semi functional.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
The oath-taking ceremony with Mojtaba Khamenei
They come and pledge allegiance with a framed photo of him :))
Something like a cardboard imam :))
Shias really never stop surprising
We'll hang your entire clan in such a way that Ramsay Bolton from GOT would lose his mind.
Posted on 3/9/26 at 7:42 am to BayouBengal51
Posted on 3/9/26 at 7:52 am to BayouBengal51
quote:
I doubt Mojtaba Khamenei is even alive.... I think the regime is desperately trying to keep his true fate under wraps in an effort to appear legitimate/semi functional.
If so, that’s kind of brilliant. Political Weekend at Bernie’s.
They would have created a leader that is impossible to assassinate. All that needs to be done for their members is to have the illusion of Khamenel being in power.
This post was edited on 3/9/26 at 7:56 am
Posted on 3/9/26 at 7:54 am to BayouBengal51
quote:
I doubt Mojtaba Khamenei is even alive.... I think the regime is desperately trying to keep his true fate under wraps in an effort to appear legitimate/semi functional.
There are definitely doubts. You would have to think a video address to the nation would be one of the first things to prove it’s still viable.
He’s either hurt or dead.
Posted on 3/9/26 at 8:14 am to BayouBengal51
Posted on 3/9/26 at 8:23 am to hawgfaninc
quote:
U.S. officials are reportedly discussing seizing Kharg Island, the offshore terminal responsible for 90% of Iran's oil exports.
We're talking direct American military control of Iran's economic lifeline.
That's just the opening move. The plan then shifts to securing Iran's nuclear facilities and locking down the Strait of Hormuz itself.
America wouldn't just be bombing Iran anymore. It would be occupying its most strategic assets.
Kharg Island. Nuclear sites. Hormuz.
That's literally the takeover of the Persian Gulf.
US officials might have discussed the move but they are not seriously planning on doing it. If they were seriously discussing doing it then we would not be discussing it on social media right now.
Posted on 3/9/26 at 8:27 am to WeeWee
Crude futures currently crashing. $119 to $98 over the last few hours.
Posted on 3/9/26 at 8:35 am to WeeWee
Not necessarily
This Administration is very comfortable with accessing social media. Simply consider the information leading up to this moment and the access given pundits since.
Doesn't have to be a USA thing, could be regional
This Administration is very comfortable with accessing social media. Simply consider the information leading up to this moment and the access given pundits since.
Doesn't have to be a USA thing, could be regional
This post was edited on 3/9/26 at 8:37 am
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