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Posted on 11/2/20 at 7:16 am to gatorsimz
Posted on 11/2/20 at 7:25 am to Scruffy
quote:
He still decides what data goes into his “calculations”.
Worse, he grades the polling firms using subjective data.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 7:27 am to msudawg1200
quote:Very.
Do you know how accurate they were in 2016?
Posted on 11/2/20 at 7:30 am to Jake88
quote:
That Ohio number isn't great.
For who?
Posted on 11/2/20 at 7:39 am to gatorsimz
Our buddy Nate was having a monumental meltdown over Trafalgar a few days ago. I will say they are the only ones that have changed their methodology a bit and other polling groups haven't so i will bet these are closer to accurate than not. All in all I don't trust any of the polls even these just go out and vote and we will see what happens.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 7:40 am to stelly1025
quote:
Our buddy Nate was having a monumental meltdown over Trafalgar a few days ago
Wasn't this melt down based on polls they weren't even published? Something about special interest polls for a specific client. I could be remembering that wrong
Posted on 11/2/20 at 7:46 am to gatorsimz
Lean Trump = will crawl on broken glass to vote for Trump.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 8:13 am to MickeyLikesDags21
Trump won Ohio by 8-9 points in 2016. I want to see him with a 7 point poll lead.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 8:36 am to Jake88
quote:
Trump won Ohio by 8-9 points in 2016. I want to see him with a 7 point poll lead.
A 5 point poll lead with MOE of 3 means he could easily win by 8. Or by 2. I’d bet on 8
Posted on 11/2/20 at 8:38 am to Jake88
quote:
That Ohio number isn't great.
It isn’t?
Posted on 11/2/20 at 8:38 am to Scruffy
quote:
When he accepts polls that state things like +17 Biden, yet rejects other polls because he doesn’t like their results, he is no longer just “crunching numbers”.
Does he do this based on individual poll results?
Posted on 11/2/20 at 8:39 am to gatorsimz
Clinton campaign played Fleetwood Mac's 'Don't Stop'..
Trump campaign gonna play 'Landslide' tomorrow.
Trump campaign gonna play 'Landslide' tomorrow.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 8:47 am to TK421
Well, Trafalgar is out defending their methodology and poll numbers, and Nate Silver has spent the last week crawfishing.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 8:48 am to TheRoarRestoredInBR
How did their final poll numbers compare to actual vote numbers in 2016? I can't find it.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 8:52 am to Jake88
quote:
Trump won Ohio by 8-9 points in 2016. I want to see him with a 7 point poll lead.
If undecideds are actually the shy trump voter, that would equal a 7.4% lead for Trump. I have a hard time believing any likely voter is undecided at this point.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 8:55 am to Jake88
For what its worth I believe this is around where they projected Trump in 2016 and he overperformed in Ohio. Lets hope that will happen again. I agree he probably needs to win with a 7-9 point margin to pick off multiple rust belt states again.
This post was edited on 11/2/20 at 9:01 am
Posted on 11/2/20 at 9:03 am to Jake88
We're way better than that in Ohio, trust me. There actually is a silent majority, and we are pissed off. Members of my extended family, with whom I've never shared a single political word, are ABSOLUTELY FIRED UP to cast their vote for Trump. They know what's at stake, they know how important this all is, and they're willing to do whatever it takes to get their ballot in. SO many of my friends and their families are the same. I'm seeing 40-50-60 year old first time voters all over the place. This election will break every turnout record ever set.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 9:06 am to RollTide1987
Yeah. The the biggest disparity in Trafalgar vs the rest is Michigan. Gonna be very interesting to see who got it right.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 9:07 am to gatorsimz
You guys are so precious. The things you come up with! Reminds me of watching my kids dream up their treehouse. It's gonna have an elevator, and a telescope, and a zipline that goes into the kitchen! Adorable.
None of your fever dreams will be coming true folks. This blue wave is gonna dwarf 2018. Independents and undecideds are not breaking to Trump. He's a charade. No work ethic, no skills, no morals...all fluff. Propped up with hot air and confused aggression. Couldn't be more obvious.
None of your fever dreams will be coming true folks. This blue wave is gonna dwarf 2018. Independents and undecideds are not breaking to Trump. He's a charade. No work ethic, no skills, no morals...all fluff. Propped up with hot air and confused aggression. Couldn't be more obvious.
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