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Message

re: Macron says The war will end with "Pacified Russia."

Posted on 3/6/25 at 1:49 pm to
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39817 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 1:49 pm to
quote:

It is understandable that Russia feels that they own any former soviet nation, but these countries should be allowed to decide their own destiny. Again, no one is fighting to rejoin with Russia. Only against. They can clearly kick NATO/US out. But they dont.



It is telling that the first thing many of these nations did even before the Iron Curtain fell was to seek out partners in the West for a transition to a market economy and all the benefits that poses. Eastern Europe just doesn't want to be under the Russian yoke.
Posted by Lima Whiskey
Member since Apr 2013
22594 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 1:50 pm to
quote:

Again, no one is fighting to rejoin with Russia.


Well, the Donbas did and you had local uprisings in Odessa and Kharkov

You could also say that Transnistria did as well

But overall yes, most people were happy to go their own way.
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39817 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 1:50 pm to
quote:

It’s wild to read takes on these issues on the PT and Reddit, how diametrically opposed they are, and how insane both sides sound. I wish my social media had more nuanced and fact (not feeling/ideology) based discourse.



Listen to boring lectures on YT. Perun is doing some amazing work on defenses economics, while touching on some other stuff.
Posted by Cuthbert13
Member since Apr 2024
522 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 1:51 pm to
quote:

US has spent money as well as blood to build. You'd give that away for some minerals. Thank god you aren't in charge.


What nation knows not our money and what shore knows not our blood?
Posted by troyt37
Member since Mar 2008
14682 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 1:51 pm to
quote:

That isn't a response to your assertion about Russian reserve materiel. They do not have those types of reserves available. If they do and are choosing to fight they way they are, then they are retarded. And I don't believe they are retarded.


No, it’s a response to my assertion that Russia isn’t fighting an all out war against Ukraine, and a possible reason for the strategy.

quote:

You realize that even during World War II, life went on where there wasn't an active front, right?


Of course. But WW2 was a little different than a country smaller than Texas at war with a world superpower.

quote:

They certainly do not have 10k tanks like you suggested, and nothing about the way they conduct war suggests they have the logistic capability to send those tanks across Central Europe soon.


Excuse my figure of speech. Russia has enough tanks and bombers that should they choose, people wouldn’t be boogieing the night away in Kiev. Better?
Posted by cwil177
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2011
29638 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 1:52 pm to
quote:

Listen to boring lectures on YT. Perun is doing some amazing work on defenses economics, while touching on some other stuff.

I’ll check that out. I enjoy listening to Peter Zeihan.
Posted by GeauxBurrow312
Member since Nov 2024
6265 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 1:52 pm to
The more this drags out, the more I see the blue haired weenies in Canada/Europe freak out, the more I hope we keep tariffs in place even though I dont like tariffs (they hurt everyone, and it will be bad politically for us in midterms)

The reality of the matter is we can destroy Canada with a trade war. Europe, not as much, but Canada... We can go to belt to arse and make an example of them to everyone else. Who needs their energy, lumber etc? If we roll back the eco protection bullshite we dont need anything they produce
Posted by AwesomeSauce
Das Boot
Member since May 2015
11444 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 1:52 pm to
Why, by interweaving our destiny with that
of any part of Europe, entangle our peace and
prosperity in the toils of European ambition, rivalship,
interest, humor, or caprice?


-George Washington c.1796
Posted by teke184
Zachary, LA
Member since Jan 2007
103905 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 1:52 pm to
quote:

UK Telegraph says "A strong German Army" will save NATO.


The UK also promised “Peace in our time” when pacifying the Germans.

Monty Python refers to it as “Britain’s great pre-war joke.”
Posted by GeauxBurrow312
Member since Nov 2024
6265 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 1:55 pm to
Im curious as to where this strong german army will come from, liberals dont enlist.

The only people enlisting in Germany are right wing:

LINK


Good luck to the lefties. Its like in Ukraine, the liberals all hated the Azov brigade for being right wing until they became their fantasy heroes for fighting their boogeyman (Russia)
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39817 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 1:55 pm to
quote:

No, it’s a response to my assertion that Russia isn’t fighting an all out war against Ukraine, and a possible reason for the strategy.



I'm more bullish on Russian defense economics than others, but the numbers you quoted just aren't based in reality.

quote:

Of course. But WW2 was a little different than a country smaller than Texas at war with a world superpower.



Yes it was much larger and yet you still had regions which were untouched by war where life went on much the same, except with a paucity of men in certain areas.

quote:

Russia has enough tanks and bombers that should they choose, people wouldn’t be boogieing the night away in Kiev. Better?


They haven't shown this ability yet in this war. They are trying to grind Ukraine down. They have every incentive to come out of this with a conclusive victory. They have no reason to hold back. Yet they still insist on an attritional style much to the detriment of their own men and materiel. Your assertions beggar belief. They just don't match what is happening on the ground.
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39817 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 1:56 pm to
quote:

I’ll check that out. I enjoy listening to Peter Zeihan.



If you like him, check out Pax Americana, Michael Shurkin's channel. His video essay on the French Way of War was great.
Posted by deathvalleytiger10
Member since Sep 2009
9282 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 1:57 pm to
quote:

This is what Western Europe wants? For their elite to send their sons into a meatgrinder


Absolutely not! They want to send our sons to the meatgrinder.
Posted by GeauxBurrow312
Member since Nov 2024
6265 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 1:58 pm to
Open source resources (like Oryx) have documented the astronomical equipment loss for Russia. They are 100% going full effort (short of nukes), that does not mean they are losing the war however (they are making small gains every day), and it does not mean their MIC is incapable. They are producing significant quantities of tanks and artillery shells every month
Posted by Dantheman504
N/A
Member since Jun 2013
6491 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 1:59 pm to
quote:

1. A mineral and gas deal with Russia
Not worth that much in the grand scheme of things.

quote:
2. A peace agreement with Russia/ Europe
Pissing off one or more parties means that it won't likely be a lasting peace.


1. That deal would certainly lead to future trade agreements with Russie including the chip deals so I believe you are wrong.

2. You actually think that if there is peace between Russia/ USA that individual European countries will frick that up.? That's already what is happening right now without the USA/ Russia at peace and neither are falling for it.

We have never seen a new age Russia and USA at peace. It is simply uncharted territory, you cannot assume that peace would not last.
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39817 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 2:03 pm to
quote:

1. That deal would certainly lead to future trade agreements with Russie including the chip deals so I believe you are wrong.



What chips deal?

quote:

2. You actually think that if there is peace between Russia/ USA that individual European countries will frick that up.? That's already what is happening right now without the USA/ Russia at peace and neither are falling for it.



Yes, there is strong incentive for Europeans to avoid working with Russians. French, German, British, and Turkish competition with Russia predates American involvement. The geopolitics of Europe suggest that competition will continue until the dynamics change and that is without US involvement.

quote:

We have never seen a new age Russia and USA at peace. It is simply uncharted territory, you cannot assume that peace would not last.



What hippie nonsense is this shite? No peace has lasted forever.
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39817 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 2:05 pm to
quote:

Open source resources (like Oryx) have documented the astronomical equipment loss for Russia. They are 100% going full effort (short of nukes), that does not mean they are losing the war however (they are making small gains every day), and it does not mean their MIC is incapable. They are producing significant quantities of tanks and artillery shells every month



I've never suggested otherwise to any of this other than to combat the notion that Russia isn't putting its entire effort into this conflict. But at current rates, it would take Russia several decades to get up to 10k tanks, like troy suggested.
Posted by Old Money
LSU
Member since Sep 2012
41761 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 2:05 pm to
quote:

Well, the Donbas did and you had local uprisings in Odessa and Kharkov

You could also say that Transnistria did as well

But overall yes, most people were happy to go their own way.


Okay, I do agree with that. There are always some
Posted by GeauxBurrow312
Member since Nov 2024
6265 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 2:10 pm to
IIRC they are producing about 100 tanks a month now, which for modern tanks is pretty astounding.

You are correct it would take a decade+ to get up to 10k tanks however. For starters, they are losing tanks daily, and then this war economy (where they produce 100 a month) is not sustainable long term. Russia cannot keep this pace up indefinitely without their economy overheating
Posted by LARancher1991
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2015
2243 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 2:10 pm to
They are still producing tanks in significant quantities. The only thing about that is they aren't producing the latest production model of these tanks. For example the T-90 was the main MBT before the start of the war. Now you rarely see them on the battlefield for 2 reasons. One they were absolutely devastated in the first year and a half of the war and two Russia isn't able to produce them on a scale to meet the demands of the war. This is why the T-72 and to some extent even older T-62's have been making up the majority of Russia's current armored force. They are cheaper and easier to produce. But even these are sent to the front a lot of times without any upgraded protection packages.
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