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Started By
Message
Louisiana.. deep red Trump state but interested if any blue Parishes flip to TRUMP
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:35 am
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:35 am
2020 map
Close Biden wins in 2020:
Iberville seems like the mostly likely shot.. it's been slowly trending red the last few cycles. St James has been slowly trending red too. Tensas has probably maxed out GOP support around 47%. Shreveport just elected a Republican mayor so they aren't afraid to vote GOP but that Caddo would be a big pull.
I think you see Iberville and St James go for Trump in a scenario where Trump wins the nation wide popular vote.
No risk of any TRUMP Parishes going blue. Jefferson will probably continue to trend to Democrat though. Trump won it 54.7-43.6 in 2020.. an 11 point win after Jefferson peaked at a 22 point GOP win in 2008.
Close Biden wins in 2020:
Iberville seems like the mostly likely shot.. it's been slowly trending red the last few cycles. St James has been slowly trending red too. Tensas has probably maxed out GOP support around 47%. Shreveport just elected a Republican mayor so they aren't afraid to vote GOP but that Caddo would be a big pull.
I think you see Iberville and St James go for Trump in a scenario where Trump wins the nation wide popular vote.
No risk of any TRUMP Parishes going blue. Jefferson will probably continue to trend to Democrat though. Trump won it 54.7-43.6 in 2020.. an 11 point win after Jefferson peaked at a 22 point GOP win in 2008.
8
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:37 am to The Boat
Does Cameron parish know there are two parties in each election?
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:37 am to The Boat
I bet caddo will
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:38 am to The Boat
If those parishes flip to Trump, it means that the Dem stranglehold on the black vote is severely weakened.
I don’t see that happening in this state simply because the LA Dems pretty much ARE the black vote.
I don’t see that happening in this state simply because the LA Dems pretty much ARE the black vote.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:38 am to The Boat
If I’m remembering correctly I think Caddo went for Jeff Landry last year.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:38 am to Zap Rowsdower
quote:
If I’m remembering correctly I think Caddo went for Jeff Landry last year.
Every Parish in the state went for Jindal in 2011 but that doesn't translate to Presidential elections
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:40 am to The Boat
The plant baws in St. James need to go vote.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:41 am to The Boat
quote:
Every Parish in the state went for Jindal in 2011 but that doesn't translate to Presidential elections
Didn’t translate for the Caddo Sheriff’s race last year either
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:42 am to JumpingTheShark
quote:
I bet caddo will
Small sample size, but I live in Caddo and some black males are flipping to Trump I see them wearing the hats like it's cool all of a sudden. Black females I talked to aren't flipping, but they aren't voting either. They have no enthusiasm for Kamala.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:44 am to JumpingTheShark
quote:
I bet caddo will
Agree with this... Shreveport has it's first R mayor in God knows how long. add that to the massive EV turnout that anecdotally was all MAGA looking people
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:47 am to Clyde Tipton
I agree, I attribute the flip to low voter turnout/motivation overall
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:47 am to jizzle6609
quote:
Does Cameron parish know there are two parties in each election?
Trump visited Cameron parish on 2 occasions as I recall. Do you think Obama, Biden, or Harris ever would?
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:52 am to jizzle6609
quote:
Does Cameron parish know there are two parties in each election?
Smartest people in the state
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:54 am to GumboPot
quote:
The plant baws in St. James
Probably mostly live in Ascension and Livingston.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:56 am to The Boat
How in the Fuggg are those northern river parishes blue??
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:58 am to Techdave
Lots of very poor, rural families, white and black, that have been trained to always vote Democrat. I believe the other side of the river, in Mississippi, across from those three parishes is the same.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:58 am to Techdave
quote:
How in the Fuggg are those northern river parishes blue??
That's the Louisiana Delta
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:59 am to The Boat
Had no idea St Helena was blue
Posted on 11/4/24 at 11:01 am to ragincajun03
quote:
Lots of very poor, rural families, white and black, that have been trained to always vote Democrat. I believe the other side of the river, in Mississippi, across from those three parishes is the same.
So I just looked them up. None of those 3 parishs have more than about 10k people, and each are more than 50% black. Did not know that.
This post was edited on 11/4/24 at 11:02 am
Posted on 11/4/24 at 11:01 am to upgrayedd
quote:
Had no idea St Helena was blue
St. Helena is pretty much a guaranteed lock for Democrats.
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