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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 8/23/25 at 2:32 pm to cypher
Posted on 8/23/25 at 2:32 pm to cypher
quote:
The choice of refineries as targets is explained by their technological vulnerability. Modern Russian refineries were built using equipment from Shell, Axens, UOP, and Haldor Topsoe - hydrocracking, catalytic reforming, isomerization, and Euro-5 component production. After 2022, deliveries of equipment, software, and catalysts ceased. Catalysts are consumables, replaced every 1-3 years; without Western supplies, Russia relies on old stock or Chinese analogs with inferior performance. Hydroprocessing reactors and compressors are manufactured in only a few countries, with delivery times up to a year.
China can cover only part of the deficit: pumps, heat exchangers, and simple catalysts. However, for complex processes, its technology lags, and replacing Western components with Chinese ones requires restructuring the entire refinery unit. As a result, every Ukrainian strike on a hydrocracking or reforming unit leads to months of downtime.
The technology they are referring to is mostly in the catalyst and internals of such reactors. This can be replaced by Chinese or even Russian made catalyst, without the same conversion rates. Much of it can be patched which is done in US refineries all of the time as wear and tear takes its toll. Depending on where the damage is, repairs can take days or months.
Several processes mentioned are pretty much off the shelf open sourced.
China is a major source of the pressure equipment, not the compressors. Italy, South Korean and Japan are also sources. For the most modern hydroprocessing technology, IsoTherming, China is the source for the sealed canned pumps used to recycle the hydrogen, in lieu of recycle compressors, along with some of product, even though the technology is from Elessant, formerly part of Dupont.
3
Posted on 8/23/25 at 4:25 pm to CitizenK
FWIW, if a hydrocracker has of been hit, the kaboom would be much more spectacular with high pressure hydrogen involved
Posted on 8/23/25 at 4:40 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
Peace won’t happen until Russia feels like they have more to lose by continuing the war.
Russia thinks this is an existential war for them... it isn't, but in their worldview, it is... Putin is trying to reverse the outcome of the Cold War and have America and the West take the L instead of Russia, and return Russia to being a superpower empire. That is impossible... but that's what drives them, and they don't seem to be equipped to suffer defeat again. So we're way off in the weeds here.
Posted on 8/23/25 at 4:43 pm to bigjoe1
quote:
Would think they would also start targeting Russia's utility grid.
Ukraine is not targeting Russian civilians.
Posted on 8/23/25 at 4:47 pm to texag7
quote:
quote:
TACO gives Putin yet another "couple of weeks" to come to peace negotiations. Pitiful, pitiful, pitiful. But that's what happens when you get caught having sex with children.
frick you. I’m going to make it a point to get you banned here
For what? Does that mean every poster on the board who calls Biden a pedophile gets banned, too?
Posted on 8/23/25 at 5:12 pm to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
They clearly don't have one giant complex for this
A lot of German arms production in WWII was distributed across many small production groups since the Allied air forces were pounding factories.
Posted on 8/23/25 at 5:20 pm to cypher
Posted on 8/23/25 at 5:24 pm to Lee B
quote:
Ukraine is not targeting Russian civilians.
Nor should they but, utilities do power defense plants and other infrastructure.
Posted on 8/23/25 at 5:55 pm to doubleb
quote:
So the economic losses won’t add up and cost the ruling cabal enough to get them to settle?
Why not? They could be losing billions of dollars in a major economic decline.
quote:
Right now, when thinking about where the traitor is coming from, this destruction of the economy is the only real threat to Putin.
quote:
Russia thinks this is an existential war for them... it isn't, but in their worldview, it is... Putin is trying to reverse the outcome of the Cold War and have America and the West take the L instead of Russia, and return Russia to being a superpower empire. That is impossible... but that's what drives them, and they don't seem to be equipped to suffer defeat again
All of these are good points, but there's one thing that that hasn't been discussed yet that not only led to the invasion in the first place but adds to their current motivation, and that's Russia's enormous geographic borders.
Russia has the largest borders of any country in the world and it's been that way for centuries. It's led to the numerous invasions that they've had to fight off and was what Catherine the Great meant by 'I have no way to defend my borders but to extend them.' This means that Russia must push out to naturally geographically defensible positions where they can simply place a few military bases in defensive holes, in places like the Bessarabian gap in Moldovia, the Baltics, and other places that lay outside of Russia. In fact, the only time the Russians did have control over these vital gaps is during the Soviet times when the Soviet Union's size combined withe it's control over the Warsaw Pact countries ensured nobody was going to invade. It's more than just a land grab, it's a genuine security risk that anyone who knows Russia sees, and the Russian leaders understand this.
The problem only got bigger in 2022 when the Russian demographic crisis went into full speed, meaning that the available manpower to plug those gaps started dropping faster and faster. People who studied the situation saw the war in Ukraine coming and predicted it. Now, with the utter destruction of the Russian army, the Chinese on their rear flank, and the world opinion turning against them, it's now in emergency mode. So, when people talk about this being an 'existential war,' yeah, they're not wrong.
The result is that they couldn't stop or settle if they wanted to - they are nowhere close to achieving their goals and in, many ways, a worse place. So even deposing Putin doesn't change the problem, it only complicates it more.
Posted on 8/23/25 at 6:01 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Much of it can be patched
The "patches" aren't easy and take time. And every attack, fire, explosion, etc make the next patch that much harder to do. What we'll likely see is after every attack refinery production level will drop and not come back up.
And Chinese replacement parts, especially high pressure fixed equipment is hit or miss at best.
This post was edited on 8/23/25 at 6:07 pm
Posted on 8/23/25 at 6:06 pm to CitizenK
quote:
The technology they are referring to is mostly in the catalyst and internals of such reactors. This can be replaced by Chinese or even Russian made catalyst, without the same conversion rates.
Once upon a time I worked for BASF catalysts and kept up with things on that front until a year or two ago. None of the European/US catalyst companies are going to deal with Russia now. Russia overran a Clariant catalyst plant in 2023 and tried to get it up and running but that idea was pretty much a joke (per a conversation with a Clariant rep in late 2023). But unfortunately Topsoe sold out to the Chinese on manufacturing catalyst more than 20 years ago. And the Chinese can make some excellent catalysts now. BASF mostly shut down their catalyst operations for that reason. But I'm talking bulk, well understood catalysts (that includes reforming). Specialty catalysts are another animal. And I assume some refining catalysts can fall into that category. I got into specialties just a bit and there is some weird stuff going on that is more an art than a science. And it's not just making catalyst - it's delivery. That needs to be scheduled months or a year or two in advance. Pressure vessels (real ones, not Texags imaginary ones) require close to 2 years for delivery. Compressors are 2-3 years. Russia might be able to find used equipment to use, though most of that is in their former satellites. Enough money can find the right equipment more often than not. The point, though, is that major damage to the refineries won't be fixed quickly. And it will only get harder to patch them up as parts and catalyst get harder to find.
Let me add a bit more. The United States dropped more bombs on Ludwigshafen, Germany (BASF's main plant) than Berlin during WWII. And BASF often got them running in a day or two. This is from some people who were there. The problem was that we started targeting the housing for the plant operators, and killed a LOT of them. As a result the plants had people running them who often didn't understand what they were doing. To an extent the repeat Ukraine strikes on the Russian refineries may have this in mind. But also to disrupt the ongoing maintenance operations which are going to involve a LOT of people. If they can take out the people who know how to fix the plants this is going to cause Russia a lot of problems going forward. Especially as winter comes on - nobody wants to fix a plant that crashes hard in the Russian winter. It was bad enough during a Louisiana cold snap.
Posted on 8/23/25 at 6:12 pm to Tigris
quote:
Pressure vessels (real ones, not Texags imaginary ones) require close to 2 years for delivery. Compressors are 2-3 years.
This. From what I've seen China can't manage to make high pressure piping components consistently, much less vessels needed for hydrocracking and diesel hydrotreating. Japan, Korea, and Italy are the places to source these. None will be supplying Russia right now.
Posted on 8/23/25 at 6:35 pm to cypher
Pentagon has quietly barred Ukrainian long-range strikes in Russia with US missiles, WSJ reports
August 24, 2025 1:28 am
The U.S. has quietly implemented a review process giving Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth authority to bar Ukrainian long-range strikes inside Russia with American missiles, effectively blocking strikes for months, the Wall Street Journal reported on Aug. 23.
The unannounced high-level Defense Department approval process has prevented the use of Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) against targets inside Russia since the late spring, an unnamed official said.
The review mechanism was developed by the Pentagon’s policy undersecretary, Elbridge Colby, and oversees Ukraine's use of American-made weapons and European weapons, which rely on U.S. intelligence and components, WSJ reported.
On at least one occasion, Ukraine has planned to use ATACMS against a target within Russian territory but was denied approval, two U.S. officials said.
Ukraine last received a shipment of ATACMS authorized by the former White House administration in the spring, unnamed U.S. officials told WSJ.
The Kyiv Independent
August 24, 2025 1:28 am
The U.S. has quietly implemented a review process giving Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth authority to bar Ukrainian long-range strikes inside Russia with American missiles, effectively blocking strikes for months, the Wall Street Journal reported on Aug. 23.
The unannounced high-level Defense Department approval process has prevented the use of Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) against targets inside Russia since the late spring, an unnamed official said.
The review mechanism was developed by the Pentagon’s policy undersecretary, Elbridge Colby, and oversees Ukraine's use of American-made weapons and European weapons, which rely on U.S. intelligence and components, WSJ reported.
On at least one occasion, Ukraine has planned to use ATACMS against a target within Russian territory but was denied approval, two U.S. officials said.
Ukraine last received a shipment of ATACMS authorized by the former White House administration in the spring, unnamed U.S. officials told WSJ.
The Kyiv Independent
Posted on 8/23/25 at 6:45 pm to Tigris
Glad to have your experienced input.
There are unused surplus hydrocracker reactors laying around after cancelled projects in Germany and especially Canada. They are in China, S, Korea and Louisiana for starters. The ones in LA from a cancelled project in Germany.
Lots of used surplus hydrotreating and isomerization equipment some already refurbished, in places like Portugal, Greece, Turkey and the USA.
A biz friend has converted a lot of natural gas recips to hydrogen complete with his own design for nitrogen purging. He never patented it so now Ariel is using his design on new compressors. That would take 6 weeks to have complete and refurbished to zero hours providing proper frame and cylinders are available, with distance pieces as required. I don't know how many barrel compressors around for recycle compressors but a recip will work in that role too. Surplus pumps are a dime a dozen these days almost not worth trying to sell.
Excellent and I never thought of this. Every process engineer worth his pay knows how important experienced operators are. They are the source of the best info on any process unit they've spent time in.
quote:
Pressure vessels (real ones, not Texags imaginary ones) require close to 2 years for delivery. Compressors are 2-3 years. Russia might be able to find used equipment to use, though most of that is in their former satellites. Enough money can find the right equipment more often than not. The point, though, is that major damage to the refineries won't be fixed quickly. And it will only get harder to patch them up as parts and catalyst get harder to find.
There are unused surplus hydrocracker reactors laying around after cancelled projects in Germany and especially Canada. They are in China, S, Korea and Louisiana for starters. The ones in LA from a cancelled project in Germany.
Lots of used surplus hydrotreating and isomerization equipment some already refurbished, in places like Portugal, Greece, Turkey and the USA.
A biz friend has converted a lot of natural gas recips to hydrogen complete with his own design for nitrogen purging. He never patented it so now Ariel is using his design on new compressors. That would take 6 weeks to have complete and refurbished to zero hours providing proper frame and cylinders are available, with distance pieces as required. I don't know how many barrel compressors around for recycle compressors but a recip will work in that role too. Surplus pumps are a dime a dozen these days almost not worth trying to sell.
quote:
The problem was that we started targeting the housing for the plant operators, and killed a LOT of them. As a result the plants had people running them who often didn't understand what they were doing.
Excellent and I never thought of this. Every process engineer worth his pay knows how important experienced operators are. They are the source of the best info on any process unit they've spent time in.
Posted on 8/23/25 at 6:47 pm to cypher
quote:
Trump Weighing Lifting Peace Block on ATACMS
While the Pentagon has reportedly blocked Ukraine from using U.S.-made long-range missiles to strike targets inside Russia, part of a policy aimed at nudging Moscow toward peace talks, according U.S. officials, President Donald Trump signaled a new approach this week.
NewsMax Saturday, 23 August 2025 06:52 PM EDT
Posted on 8/23/25 at 7:39 pm to LSU0358
quote:
This. From what I've seen China can't manage to make high pressure piping components consistently, much less vessels needed for hydrocracking and diesel hydrotreating.
They've made them for over a decade easily
Posted on 8/23/25 at 9:45 pm to CitizenK
They’ve also had a number of incidents/failures as well.
Posted on 8/23/25 at 9:53 pm to LSU0358
quote:
Key Takeaways: The Kremlin continues to signal that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unwilling to have an immediate bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Russian officials continue to deflect blame for the lack of Putin-Zelensky meeting and Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations by rejecting the legitimacy of Ukraine's democratically elected government. Ukraine continued its strike campaign against Russian military and oil infrastructure in Russia and occupied Ukraine. Ukrainian authorities returned Ukrainian civilians whom Russian authorities deported from occupied areas of Ukraine to a checkpoint on the Russia-Georgia border. Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka. Russian forces advanced in northern Sumy and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts and near Chasiv Yar and Novopavlivka.
Slow day
Posted on 8/24/25 at 3:57 am to bigjoe1
quote:
Deadly fragments attacking.
quote:
Ten UAVs were destroyed on Sunday morning over the Ust-Luga port, debris from the drone caused a fire at the terminal, firefighters and the Ministry of Emergency Situations are working to extinguish it, said the head of Leningrad Oblast Drozdov.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Ust-Luga is one of the two main crude oil loading ports for Russia's shadow fleet. Located on the Baltic near Leningrad, it is the second largest in Russia after Novorossiysk (Black Sea) and a critical component of the Russian effort to finance the war.
It was hit in January of last year as well. Ust-Luga is approximately 1300km from Kyiv.
quote:
Following are some facts about Novatek's main export terminal for oil products:
* According to Novatek, the Ust-Luga complex, launched in 2013, processes gas condensate into light and heavy naphtha, jet fuel, ship fuel component (fuel oil) and gasoil, and enables the company to ship oil products as well as gas condensate to international markets.
* Novatek produces mostly naphtha for Asia, including China, Singapore, Taiwan and Malaysia, as well as jet fuel with delivery to Istanbul for Turkish Airlines (THYAO.IS) , opens new tab.
* In 2022, the Ust-Luga complex processed 6.943 million metric tons of gas condensate into 6.825 million tons of end products, including 4.208 million tons of light and heavy naphtha, 1.052 million tons of jet fuel and 1.487 million tons of ship fuel component (fuel oil) and gasoil as well as 78,000 tons of liquefied petroleum gas.
* The nearby oil outlet of Ust-Luga, exported 34 million tons (680,000 barrels per day) of crude oil in 2023, up 9% from the previous year, according to oil pipeline monopoly Transneft
Ust-Luga is also a majot LNG processing and exporting port -
quote:
In October 2021, Gazprom and RusGazDobycha announced they planned to build a plant at Ust-Luga to process ethane-containing natural gas, and a large-scale liquefied natural gas (LNG) production plant, Baltic LNG, with a capacity of 13 million tonnes of LNG per year.
High-ethane gas from the Tambeyskoye gas field, and the Achimov and Valanginian deposits of the Nadym-Pur-Taz region, will supply the plant.
LINK
LINK
Posted on 8/24/25 at 4:52 am to Coeur du Tigre
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
A fire is raging at the Ust-Luga port after the arrival.
quote:
The attacked export port of Ust-Luga is the largest seaport of Russia on the Baltic Sea, through which oil, gas, coal, fertilizers and grain are exported. The terminal is equipped with a tank farm with a total capacity of 960,000 m³.
quote:
As a result of the strike on Ust-Luga —Gas Processing Complex sustained damage.
The facility most affected was the cryogenic gas fractionation unit, which is considered the core of the plant.
The Ust-Luga complex is among the largest of its kind in Europe. It is designed to process up to 45 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually, producing around 13 million tons of LNG, 3.6 million tons of ethane, and 1.8 million tons of propane-butane.
Coordinates: 59.7091747, 28.4356830
Video from which above photo taken - LINK
This post was edited on 8/24/25 at 5:40 am
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