re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

TACO gives Putin yet another "couple of weeks" to come to peace negotiations. Pitiful, pitiful, pitiful. But that's what happens when you get caught having sex with children.

Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.

Article of the Month, giving technical data, strategic implications and possible defenses against these missiles.

TGIF? Russia is fricked. But you knew that, this just updates the timeline for total frickeration.

quote:

---

The advent of the cruise missile like Flamingo is not just a new reinforcement to the Ukrainian Defense Forces. It is a development that marks the Ukrainian defense industry’s transition to a qualitatively new level of development and highlights a dramatic change in the strategic balance of power in the war. Having obtained a weapon capable of keeping up to 90 percent of Russia’s arms manufacturing capacities under threat, Ukraine obtains a powerful leverage to pressure on the aggressor country – militarily as well as politically.

Despite having certain drawbacks in terms of size and visual signature, Flamingo’s advantages – long range, heavy warhead and mass production potential – make it into a fearsome leverage in a war of attrition. With the Flamingo missile now available, Ukraine now is equipped to respond asymmetrically to Russian strikes, bringing the war home to the aggressor and further undermining its economic and warfighting capabilities.

---

quote:

---

If attacks on these targets become systematic, the European part of Russia risks being left without fuel. Then supplies will have to be directed from Nizhnekamask or Omsk, meaning an additional thousands of kilometers of transportation, trains with fuel, which can also become targets of strikes in addition to railway hubs.

---

Nizhnekamask is 953 miles / 1 534 km from Kyiv.



The Nizhnekamask refinery has been hit by drones on two previous occasions. LINK



Omsk is 1,799 miles / 2 895 km from Kyiv. Not far enough.



Although not drone-related, Omsk has had some recent misfortunes -

quote:

---

On 25 April 2024, Russian media reported a fire at the Omsk Refinery. The authorities used firefighting trains to combat the blaze. Ukraine was blamed for the fire, which engulfed three rail cars. The oil refinery fire was detected by NASA's FIRMS on 28 August 2024.

On 26 August 2024, an explosion and subsequent fire took place burning some 1,000 square metres (11,000 sq ft), injuring seven workers. Crude distillation unit named CDU-11, one of the "two largest primary refining units at the plant" was destroyed. The unit was responsible for roughly one-third of plant capacity.

---

LINK

quote:

---

TACO gives Putin yet another "couple of weeks" to come to peace negotiations. Pitiful, pitiful, pitiful. But that's what happens when you get caught having sex with children.

---

frick you. I’m going to make it a point to get you banned here

Anton Gerashchenko
@Gerashchenko_en
·
3h
I've decided to translate for you a post from the Russian Telegram channel "Nezygar" about the current state of Russian refineries and fuel market:

"Tensions in Russia's fuel market are rising: in Primorye, there are kilometer-long queues at gas stations, and wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel have hit record highs. Officially, the reasons are no longer hidden - refineries are shutting down after Ukrainian strikes. During peak summer days, up to 14% of processing capacity was idle.

In 2025, the tactics of Ukrainian strikes have changed. Previously, they were one-time: a unit would be damaged, the plant would reduce output, but recover within a few weeks. Now, attacks are carried out in series and repeated on the same facilities - Ryazan, Novokuibyshevsk, Syzran, Volgograd, Afipsky refineries. This prevents the restoration of primary processing and hydrocracking and catalytic cracking units. For example, after a series of attacks, Ryazan Refinery (5% of Russia's capacity) has half its processing halted, while Novokuibyshevsk Refinery (3%) has its primary processing damaged. The largest refinery in southern Russia, Volgograd's Lukoil, as well as the Samara and Syzran refineries, have stopped receiving crude.

Ukraine is widely using drones with a range of 1,000-1,500 km (such as the AQ-400 produced by FirePoint), capable of reaching the Volga region. Simultaneously, drones and maritime drones are targeting export terminals - attacks on Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk have temporarily halted oil product shipments. 'Madyar' reported hitting the Druzhba pipeline, which supplies oil from Russia to its historical homeland.

...

The choice of refineries as targets is explained by their technological vulnerability. Modern Russian refineries were built using equipment from Shell, Axens, UOP, and Haldor Topsoe - hydrocracking, catalytic reforming, isomerization, and Euro-5 component production. After 2022, deliveries of equipment, software, and catalysts ceased. Catalysts are consumables, replaced every 1-3 years; without Western supplies, Russia relies on old stock or Chinese analogs with inferior performance. Hydroprocessing reactors and compressors are manufactured in only a few countries, with delivery times up to a year.

China can cover only part of the deficit: pumps, heat exchangers, and simple catalysts. However, for complex processes, its technology lags, and replacing Western components with Chinese ones requires restructuring the entire refinery unit. As a result, every Ukrainian strike on a hydrocracking or reforming unit leads to months of downtime.

The map of Russian refineries reveals a key strategic problem: the main processing capacities are concentrated in the European part of the country, while fuel consumption is rising in the Far East. Fuel logistics chains to eastern regions span thousands of kilometers, creating additional costs and risks. Kilometer-long queues in Primorye are a direct consequence of this imbalance between western production and eastern consumption. Large refineries - from Kirishi to Volgograd - are within reach of Ukrainian drones. The Flamingo missile, if its specifications are confirmed, can reach Russia's largest refinery in Omsk.

As the range increases, facilities previously considered out of reach are now threatened, creating a scale problem for air defense - protecting all refineries across the territory, from Kaliningrad to the Far East, is practically impossible.

Consequently, Russia's oil and gas industry, once a source of economic strength, has become a vulnerable spot."

quote:

---

Ukraine’s new cruise missile FP-5 Flamingo can reach 90 percent of Russian defense industries

---

Can Russia target the factory that produces these missiles? It doesn’t seem as if they can.

Gas shortages are resulting in miles long lines in Russia.

quote:

---

Now, attacks are carried out in series and repeated on the same facilities - Ryazan, Novokuibyshevsk, Syzran, Volgograd, Afipsky refineries. This prevents the restoration of primary processing and hydrocracking and catalytic cracking units. For example, after a series of attacks, Ryazan Refinery (5% of Russia's capacity) has half its processing halted, while Novokuibyshevsk Refinery (3%) has its primary processing damaged. The largest refinery in southern Russia, Volgograd's Lukoil, as well as the Samara and Syzran refineries, have stopped receiving crude.

---

This is the 15th Air Force's playbook for the refineries around Ploiesti during WW2'
Just keep going back over and over. Briefing officers referred to these follow up missions as bouncing the rubble.
By the time Russia took the place in the summer of 1944 the refineries were producing at about 10% capacity.

So the economic losses won’t add up and cost the ruling cabal enough to get them to settle?

Why not? They could be losing billions of dollars in a major economic decline.

Exactly what I’m getting at. Pressure from within the cabal could affect Putin. He could elect to settle in that case.