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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 8/22/25 at 6:56 am to cypher
Posted on 8/22/25 at 6:56 am to cypher
8/21 ISW Key Takeaways:
The Kremlin continues to insist that the 2022 Istanbul negotiations are the only acceptable departure point for potential future negotiations on the war in Ukraine, thereby demanding that Russia and its allies reserve the right to veto any Western military assistance to Ukraine and that Ukraine be left neutered and defenseless against future Russian aggression.
The Kremlin continues to categorically reject US-backed security guarantees for Ukraine and reveal its continued objectives of seizing control of all of Ukraine.
Russia is expending considerable diplomatic effort to court India, suggesting that the Kremlin continues to fear the impact of secondary sanctions.
Russia launched the third largest strike of the war thus far against Ukraine on the night of August 20 to 21, targeting Western regions of Ukraine and causing significant damage to civilian infrastructure.
The Ukrainian defense industrial base (DIB) continues to innovate and scale production of long-range weapons.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) officially confirmed that it replaced former Northern Group of Forces and Leningrad Military District (LMD) Commander Colonel General Alexander Lapin with Chief of Staff of the Russian Ground Forces Colonel General Yevgeny Nikiforov.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Novopavlivka. Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar.
ISW
The Kremlin continues to insist that the 2022 Istanbul negotiations are the only acceptable departure point for potential future negotiations on the war in Ukraine, thereby demanding that Russia and its allies reserve the right to veto any Western military assistance to Ukraine and that Ukraine be left neutered and defenseless against future Russian aggression.
The Kremlin continues to categorically reject US-backed security guarantees for Ukraine and reveal its continued objectives of seizing control of all of Ukraine.
Russia is expending considerable diplomatic effort to court India, suggesting that the Kremlin continues to fear the impact of secondary sanctions.
Russia launched the third largest strike of the war thus far against Ukraine on the night of August 20 to 21, targeting Western regions of Ukraine and causing significant damage to civilian infrastructure.
The Ukrainian defense industrial base (DIB) continues to innovate and scale production of long-range weapons.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) officially confirmed that it replaced former Northern Group of Forces and Leningrad Military District (LMD) Commander Colonel General Alexander Lapin with Chief of Staff of the Russian Ground Forces Colonel General Yevgeny Nikiforov.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Novopavlivka. Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar.
ISW
Posted on 8/22/25 at 7:08 am to Lee B
quote:
I mentioned someone pointing out "this wasn't a 'breakthrough,' it was a 'walkthrough.'" It was like someone finding a hole in a fence of a secured site and a team of people sneaking in... sure, that can be a problem and they can do a lot of damage, but it's a limited incursion. This was no "Kursk."
They also pointed out that Russian channels made such a big deal out of it the very moment they could post any pics or video that Ukraine instantly moved forces to the area to stop it before more Russians could exploit the hole they found.
Multiple things can be true. The 'breakthrough' wasn't really a breakthrough, even if you ask the Russians. They saw an opening and took it.
No one should really be taking anything away from the event itself. But, the one takeaway you might have is that this sort of thing hasn't really happened to Ukraine much thus far. And by the looks of it, it happened in at least a somewhat strategically advantageous place for the Russians, not some random spot on the line in the middle of no where. Had it been an actual organized Russian assault, we might be looking at a very different situation today. So does this start to happen more often? Plugging one gap is one thing, but they don't have the men to be the little dutch boy trying to plug a bunch of leaks at once.
This post was edited on 8/22/25 at 7:09 am
Posted on 8/22/25 at 7:16 am to cypher
quote:
The Kremlin continues to categorically reject US-backed security guarantees for Ukraine and reveal its continued objectives of seizing control of all of Ukraine.
More US military involvement in closer proximity to Russia is a risk factor going into a cloudy future. I know Russia will reject this too, but it needs to be Europe securing Ukraine.
In fact, in my opinion only Europe CAN truly secure Ukraine because of instability in the US. Who knows what kind of president we will have in 4 years, much less in 8, 12, 16, 20. A committed European coalition that wants to secure Ukraine spreads out the risk of withdrawal (or the neutering) of support among several countries instead of leaving it more or less up to one country that isn't even in the region.
Posted on 8/22/25 at 7:33 am to cypher
Posted on 8/22/25 at 7:41 am to VolSquatch
quote:
n my opinion only Europe CAN truly secure Ukraine because of instability in the US. Who knows what kind of president we will have in 4 years, much less in 8, 12, 16, 20.
The US has traditionally been more stable than European parliaments, which can veer way off into either extreme all of a sudden... that is probably over, since we have a POTUS presently who is behaving radically and erratically, and has eliminated any resistance in his own party that would rein him in... we'll see if our system allows that going forward.
Posted on 8/22/25 at 7:57 am to Lee B
quote:
The US has traditionally been more stable than European parliaments, which can veer way off into either extreme all of a sudden... that is probably over, since we have a POTUS presently who is behaving radically and erratically, and has eliminated any resistance in his own party that would rein him in... we'll see if our system allows that going forward.
Even now you could argue that we might still be more stable vs most European parliaments, but at least with Europe you're diversifying the risk
Posted on 8/22/25 at 8:11 am to Coeur du Tigre
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If tweet fails to load, click here. In case you're wondering, if the equipment needed to repair these substations is available in Russia, it must be delivered - wait for it - by rail.
Posted on 8/22/25 at 8:49 am to LSURussian
quote:Bolton's tweeting about you
LSURussian
quote:
It was not known if Bolton was home at the time of the raid. About a half hour after it began, at around 7 a.m., he tweeted about Russian ... writing that Trump will continue pushing for meetings “because Trump wants a Nobel Peace Prize, but I don’t see these talks making any progress.”
LINK
Posted on 8/22/25 at 9:06 am to NC_Tigah
The total losers of this thread love John Bolton
Posted on 8/22/25 at 10:00 am to Lee B
quote:
The US has traditionally been more stable than European parliaments, which can veer way off into either extreme all of a sudden... that is probably over, since we have a POTUS presently who is behaving radically and erratically, and has eliminated any resistance in his own party that would rein him in... we'll see if our system allows that going forward.
Hot off the press for you leftists. Not mentioning/talking about your agenda is not going to work. Trying to hide your motives/intentions is right out of the Marxist playbook. Everyone knows your motives already. You leftists are desperate.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.This post was edited on 8/22/25 at 10:03 am
Posted on 8/22/25 at 1:07 pm to Lee B
quote:
The US has traditionally been more stable than European parliaments, which can veer way off into either extreme all of a sudden... that is probably over, since we have a POTUS presently who is behaving radically and erratically, and has eliminated any resistance in his own party that would rein him in... we'll see if our system allows that going forward.
Our instability is precisely because we have shoe horned a parliamentary system into our system of government with a separate executive and legislative.
In reality, our government now operates much like the parliament systems in Europe where elections may or may not result in the formation of a coalition government. Sometimes it does and you have uni-party control over congress and the White House, and when you don’t have that we functionally don’t have a formed and operating government.
This is largely the thesis behind McConnell not bringing Obama’s nomination of Garland to a vote in 2016 but bringing Trump’s nomination of ACB to a vote. In one case you had a former coalition government and in one case you did not.
The structural change to how Congress and the executive relate to one another in the US is what will define this era historically in my opinion.
Posted on 8/22/25 at 5:25 pm to ned nederlander
Peace is not as close as we thought 3 days ago or what they said it was on Tuesday.
LINK
quote:
Russia’s top diplomat said Friday his country is “not ready at all” to discuss a peace deal with Ukraine—a blow to President Donald Trump, whose flashy meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to have been a flop.
quote:
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said there is no meeting planned to discuss peace between Putin and Ukraine’s Volodmyr Zelensky. He added that the two sides remain far apart in their discussions.
quote:
“Putin is ready to meet with Zelensky when the agenda is ready for a summit,” he told NBC News. “And this agenda is not ready at all.”
quote:
“President Trump suggested, after Anchorage, several points which we share, and on some of them, we agreed to show some flexibility,” he said
LINK
This post was edited on 8/22/25 at 5:27 pm
Posted on 8/22/25 at 7:58 pm to MizzouBS
Standard Lavrov pushing boundaries with maximalist demands
Posted on 8/22/25 at 9:18 pm to MizzouBS
Peace won’t happen until Russia feels like they have more to lose by continuing the war.
Posted on 8/23/25 at 4:50 am to CitizenK
Between Putin and Lavrov, Putin tells the West what they want to hear and Lavrov is now the realist, delivering the poison pills to any talk of promised cease fires. TACO plays along with this game because that's what he was told to do.
Putin cannot stop the fighting, his life literally depends on it. Keep that in mind and the endless cease fire confusion dissolves.
Putin cannot stop the fighting, his life literally depends on it. Keep that in mind and the endless cease fire confusion dissolves.
Posted on 8/23/25 at 5:07 am to Coeur du Tigre
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If tweet fails to load, click here. Hit on Wednesday, the fire is still out of control. Nice bavovna as well, a 7.5 on the Bavovna of the Week © scale. Good flame head, good smoke plume, no mushroom or flaming parts. But we expect future hits, so this score will improve.
Posted on 8/23/25 at 5:10 am to Coeur du Tigre
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If tweet fails to load, click here. Got a feeling these crude oil numbers for Orban and Fico will drop this month.
Posted on 8/23/25 at 5:13 am to Coeur du Tigre
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If tweet fails to load, click here. Prolonged. Ok, so it wasn't the window.
Posted on 8/23/25 at 5:25 am to Coeur du Tigre
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If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
Could be very well theyre finishing off both Ilsky and Afipsky refineries, each fairly close to each other.
Afipsky NPZ refinery has been hit three times before, the last being on the 7th of this month. Ilsky has been hit twice.
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