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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 8/13/25 at 6:16 pm to AU86
Posted on 8/13/25 at 6:16 pm to AU86
quote:
Then why didn't the British win the American Revolution? Why did the federals not achieve ultimate success until Grant focused on destroying Lee's army instead of taking Richmond? Grant knew that his superior manpower and resources would eventually win out. Lee knew that when he was pinned down and it became a war of attrition it would be only a.matter of time. The South was running out of manpower and resources. Why didn't Germany defeat the Soviets in 1941? They took a hell of a lot of territory. When the Nazi's lost the ability to maneuver and it became a war of attrition it was over. They could not match the allies manpower and resource superiority. Why didn't Napoleon win when he took Moscow?
You realize that each of those conflicts would have a different answer, right?
The thing you are missing is to ask what are the Russian war goals? Given that they have been explicit about wanting to landlock Ukraine, that requires the ability to actually take the regions which you need to see out that objective.
1
Posted on 8/13/25 at 9:15 pm to crazy4lsu
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. ?? In Donbas, former leader of the Russian separatists and so-called “SVO” veteran Pavel Gubarev gave an interview to a Russian ultra-patriotic channel, in which he spoke on topics related to the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war. Here are excerpts from that interview:
?? “They claim that with today’s military tactics we will reach Kyiv. I want to say — we will not reach Kyiv like this.”
?? “For me, victory in the war would be the capitulation of the Ukrainian army, the liquidation of Ukraine’s statehood, and the establishment of our protectorate over its territories. But it doesn’t look like we are heading in that direction.”
?? “To win the war, we need an additional 1.5 million soldiers who will be properly equipped, trained, and provided with the necessary hardware. In this regard, there are problems — we lack everything.”
?? “Among our youth, the war is not popular; they are not interested in it.”
?? “Those responsible are not explaining to the youth why we must fight, nor are they trying to make them understand the heavy price each of us will pay if we lose the war.”
?? “The paradigm of the war has changed. It is not advantageous to launch mass infantry assaults when the enemy destroys you with drones. It doesn’t matter much if you advance a few kilometers.”
?? “An economic crisis is ongoing in Russia and is gaining momentum.”
?? “Given that a direct military confrontation with the West is inevitable, I believe we must entrench and fortify ourselves along the current front line, in order to conserve resources and prepare for the war that awaits us in the near future.”
Posted on 8/13/25 at 9:27 pm to Lee B
The fog of war and the wailings of the propaganda tweets means I can't tell wtf is going on around Pokrovsk...
Yes, Russian troops are beyond the Ukrainian defensive lines.
How many? 10 or 100 or 1,000 or 100,000, depending on the source.
Are they mechanized brigades? Not from what I've seen from either side... just small teams of troops who snuck in through tree lines. But, of course, they could pave the way for larger numbers and equipment in a few days.
Did they fight their way through the Ukrainian defenses? No... they seem to have snuck past them in some areas they figured out were weak spots that were undermanned. I've seen "To be clear, this isn't yet a breakthrough... it's a walkthrough." In any case, it's not good.
How much not good it is we'll see.
Yes, Russian troops are beyond the Ukrainian defensive lines.
How many? 10 or 100 or 1,000 or 100,000, depending on the source.
Are they mechanized brigades? Not from what I've seen from either side... just small teams of troops who snuck in through tree lines. But, of course, they could pave the way for larger numbers and equipment in a few days.
Did they fight their way through the Ukrainian defenses? No... they seem to have snuck past them in some areas they figured out were weak spots that were undermanned. I've seen "To be clear, this isn't yet a breakthrough... it's a walkthrough." In any case, it's not good.
How much not good it is we'll see.
Posted on 8/13/25 at 10:20 pm to Lee B
quote:
Are they mechanized brigades? Not from what I've seen from either side... just small teams of troops who snuck in through tree lines. But, of course, they could pave the way for larger numbers and equipment in a few days.
I don't think they have any mechanized brigades, at least not in the sense that an American would think about one. They're pretty much out of armoured fighting vehicles:
Russia is facing a 'catastrophic shortage' of armoured fighting vehicles
Combine that with the lack of logistical and combined arms capabilities, this means there isn't going to be a 'breakout' in the classic sense, like we think of Rommel or Patton or when opposing troops break through the lines and go hell-for-leather towards strategic goals or encirclement. They are bound by light infantry, and their damned light infantry is untrained alcoholics with some North Koreans.
The Ukrainians, on the other hand, have shown they can do combined arms and move large amounts of soldiers very quickly and in an organized fashion, so when places like Pokrovsk fall, as it looks like it will, they won't lose nearly as many people and will reorganize and recover relatively quickly, further lessoning the hit.
Posted on 8/13/25 at 10:23 pm to Lee B
quote:
In Donbas, former leader of the Russian separatists and so-called “SVO” veteran Pavel Gubarev gave an interview to a Russian ultra-patriotic channel, in which he spoke on topics related to the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war. Here are excerpts from that interview:
?? “They claim that with today’s military tactics we will reach Kyiv. I want to say — we will not reach Kyiv like this.”
?? “For me, victory in the war would be the capitulation of the Ukrainian army, the liquidation of Ukraine’s statehood, and the establishment of our protectorate over its territories. But it doesn’t look like we are heading in that direction.”
?? “To win the war, we need an additional 1.5 million soldiers who will be properly equipped, trained, and provided with the necessary hardware. In this regard, there are problems — we lack everything.”
?? “Among our youth, the war is not popular; they are not interested in it.”
?? “Those responsible are not explaining to the youth why we must fight, nor are they trying to make them understand the heavy price each of us will pay if we lose the war.”
?? “The paradigm of the war has changed. It is not advantageous to launch mass infantry assaults when the enemy destroys you with drones. It doesn’t matter much if you advance a few kilometers.”
?? “An economic crisis is ongoing in Russia and is gaining momentum.”
?? “Given that a direct military confrontation with the West is inevitable, I believe we must entrench and fortify ourselves along the current front line, in order to conserve resources and prepare for the war that awaits us in the near future.”
This is the most honest and sober assessment of this war that I have seen in years. The only thing I would argue against is the idea that there is a 'direct military confrontation' that is inevitable. It is, however, a possibility.
Posted on 8/14/25 at 3:09 am to Lee B
quote:Agreed. One thing is clear though. The cause of this incursion was a failure of the Ukrianian observation drone network. These drones are used as a substitute for large numbers of entrenched troops but like all security camera systems, they still have to be monitored properly. The lesson may be that a small number of hidden infiltrators can add up over time. If not detected, once the numbers needed for this kind of attack are gained, a fast mobile attack into rear areas can be accomplished.
The fog of war and the wailings of the propaganda tweets means I can't tell wtf is going on around Pokrovsk...
Posted on 8/14/25 at 3:23 am to Coeur du Tigre
Another night, another drone strike to a Russian oil refinery. Sure, Vlad, take all the time you want.
LINK
LINK
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
Drones attacked Lukoil refinery in Volgograd and government building in Belgorod: video.
Traditionally for the Russian authorities, the governor of Volgograd region claims that the attack was allegedly repelled and the fire was caused by "debris"
quote:
On the night of August 14, Russia was again attacked by drones. In Volgograd, a fire broke out on the territory of an oil refinery, and in Belgorod, a government building was hit, local authorities reported .
The governor of Volgograd region, Andrey Bocharov, announced a massive attack on the region. The falling "debris" caused a spill and fire of oil products at the Volgograd refinery.
The propaganda Telegram channel ASTRA writes that this is probably the LUKOIL-Volgogradneftepererabotka refinery, which has been repeatedly attacked by drones before.
quote:
Three Russian refineries have cut or suspended operations this month due to damage sustained from Ukrainian drone attacks, according to media reports. Bloomberg reported that a Rosneft facility in Saratov Oblast halted oil intake after a strike on Aug. 10.
Russia's Ryazan refinery also decreased its production by half while the Novokuibyshevsk refinery halted production completely on Aug. 2, Reuters reported.
LINK
LINK
Posted on 8/14/25 at 3:26 am to Coeur du Tigre
Volgograd, Lukoil refinery ...
Video report
Still burning this morning -
Map of Russian oil refineries recently attacked [in the last three weeks] after Ukraine resumed its campaign against Russian oil facilities.
You have to think that goal Number 1 for Vlad tomorrow is a no-fly zone. That should be easily negotiated with Zelenskyy while they are in Alaska together. After all, that's the magic of face-to-face meetings. Right?
LINK
.
Video report
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Still burning this morning -
quote:That's 8.86 m/bbls per month or about 60% of Exxon BR's input.
Volgograd oil refinery has the capacity of 14,5 million tons of oil per year.
Map of Russian oil refineries recently attacked [in the last three weeks] after Ukraine resumed its campaign against Russian oil facilities.
You have to think that goal Number 1 for Vlad tomorrow is a no-fly zone. That should be easily negotiated with Zelenskyy while they are in Alaska together. After all, that's the magic of face-to-face meetings. Right?
LINK
.
This post was edited on 8/14/25 at 4:30 am
Posted on 8/14/25 at 6:36 am to Coeur du Tigre
General Staff Spokesman: Situation in Dobropillia sector stabilizes
14.08.2025 10:25
The situation in the Dobropillia sector is stabilizing, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are taking the necessary measures to identify and destroy groups of Russian occupiers.
The Spokesman of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Andrii Kovalov, shared the information in a comment to Ukrinform.
He noted that the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine had decided to allocate additional forces and resources to strengthen the defense in the Dobropillia and Pokrovsk sectors.
“In particular, during the operations of the 1st Corps Azov of the National Guard of Ukraine, adjacent and subordinate units, the enemy suffered significant losses. As a result of the fighting over the past two days in the corps' area of responsibility, 151 Russian occupiers have been eliminated. More than 70 invaders were wounded. During this period, the corps' soldiers also captured eight Russian invaders," Kovalov said.
He noted that the servicemen of the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue search and strike operations in their operational area.
“The situation is stabilizing,” the Spokesman for the General Staff emphasized.
According to Ukrinform, the 1st Corps of the National Guard of Ukraine “Azov” has taken up a designated defense line in the Pokrovsk sector.
Ukrinform
14.08.2025 10:25
The situation in the Dobropillia sector is stabilizing, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are taking the necessary measures to identify and destroy groups of Russian occupiers.
The Spokesman of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Andrii Kovalov, shared the information in a comment to Ukrinform.
He noted that the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine had decided to allocate additional forces and resources to strengthen the defense in the Dobropillia and Pokrovsk sectors.
“In particular, during the operations of the 1st Corps Azov of the National Guard of Ukraine, adjacent and subordinate units, the enemy suffered significant losses. As a result of the fighting over the past two days in the corps' area of responsibility, 151 Russian occupiers have been eliminated. More than 70 invaders were wounded. During this period, the corps' soldiers also captured eight Russian invaders," Kovalov said.
He noted that the servicemen of the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue search and strike operations in their operational area.
“The situation is stabilizing,” the Spokesman for the General Staff emphasized.
According to Ukrinform, the 1st Corps of the National Guard of Ukraine “Azov” has taken up a designated defense line in the Pokrovsk sector.
Ukrinform
Posted on 8/14/25 at 6:57 am to cypher
The facility processes over 15 million metric tons of oil every year, amounting to 5.6% of Russia's refining capacity, the Ukrainian military said.
NOELREPORTS
?@noelreports.com?
The Lukoil oil refinery near Volgograd after today’s drone strike.
NOELREPORTS
?@noelreports.com?
The Lukoil oil refinery near Volgograd after today’s drone strike.
This post was edited on 8/14/25 at 7:01 am
Posted on 8/14/25 at 7:06 am to cypher
If I were to read this with the mind of a WW2 intel analyst...
The situation has not stabilized.
We are rushing reinforcements to this area in hopes of stabilizing a deteriorating front.
That's significantly worrying.
quote:
The situation in the Dobropillia sector is stabilizing, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are taking the necessary measures to identify and destroy groups of Russian occupiers.
The situation has not stabilized.
quote:
He noted that the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine had decided to allocate additional forces and resources to strengthen the defense in the Dobropillia and Pokrovsk sectors.
We are rushing reinforcements to this area in hopes of stabilizing a deteriorating front.
That's significantly worrying.
Posted on 8/14/25 at 7:19 am to cypher
Russian forces have yet to reinforce and consolidate positions east and northeast of Dobropillya, and Russian and Ukrainian sources continued on August 13 to characterize the Russian penetration as consisting of limited, dismounted sabotage and reconnaissance groups.[32] Russian milbloggers continued to urge caution to their Russian audience about unconfirmed claims of Russian advance. [33] Ukrainian General Staff Spokesperson Andriy Kovalev stated on August 12 that three groups of Russian forces conducted the recent penetration and that Ukrainian forces destroyed two of the groups and some of the third group.
ISW- Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 13, 2025
ISW- Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 13, 2025
Posted on 8/14/25 at 9:36 am to cypher
This penetration is much like Russian penetrations in the first half of 2022, which ended up be chopped up, Finnish Moti style.
Posted on 8/14/25 at 10:00 am to CitizenK
I’m guessing Russia gambled on making a big show before the Friday talks. Did they succeed? There are mixed signals so far.
Posted on 8/14/25 at 11:17 am to doubleb
It's doubtful that Zelenski and the Ukrainians are going to be overwhelmed at the prospect of fighting over another town for the next year.
Posted on 8/14/25 at 12:01 pm to CitizenK
quote:
This penetration is much like Russian penetrations in the first half of 2022, which ended up be chopped up, Finnish Moti style.
Lot of hope and cope for a town that doesn't even matter (at least as of 2 days ago when you all independently, somehow at the exact same moment, decided that it doesn't).
Blackbird is reporting that the penetration has been mostly contained. They are also reporting that it was likely done by a relatively small force, roughly battalion size, and that the facts on the ground point to the breakthrough being a surprise even to the Russians themselves moreso than any kind of extra push. More of a "we saw an opportunity and took it" type deal than any kind of planned assault.
Posted on 8/14/25 at 12:37 pm to Coeur du Tigre
This guy, a former Trump staff member, gets it.
But of course, since Putin purchased a copy of the Epstein files, we all know none of this will be implemented.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
1. Full blocking sanctions on all financial institutions. Target the 20% of banks that Biden did not. Verify w/ EU that no Russian banks have access to SWIFT. Amend Executive Order 14024 to authorize secondary sanctions on ?????? foreign bank that transacts w/ them.
quote:
2. Immediately sanction several of the Chinese banks that have been banking exports to the Russian aeorospace & defense sector. EO 14024, as amended, already allows this, & I’m sure Treasury has targets in mind. Warn Kazakhstan & Kyrgyzstan that their banks could be next
quote:
3. Announce complete sectoral sanctions on ?????? Russian energy transactions. Amend EO 14024 to authorize secondary sanctions on any entity involved in Russian energy transactions. Tell EU buyers they must wind down, & start putting their purchases into blocked accounts.
quote:
4. Start enforcing the 25% secondary tariff on India for its oil purchases. Announce the same on Communist China.
5. Adopt the EU ban on refined petroleum products of Russian crude-oil origin. (The US appears to be buying these products from India today).
quote:
6. Catch up US sanctions on Russia’s “Shadow Fleet” of oil tankers to match the EU & UK. According to @robin_j_brooks there are 359 ships the US hasn’t yet sanctioned.
quote:
7. Advise oil tankers flagged/registered/owned by EU nations transporting Russian crude that they must stop. The share of Russian crude transported on G7+ tankers has recently increased to 47%, & 79% for oil products (per @CREACleanAir ).
quote:
8. Seize the $5+ billion in Russian government assets that are currently frozen in US banks. Allow Ukraine to begin using that money to purchase weapons from US companies.
The EU is already doing a version of this, allowing Ukraine access to interest from frozen assets.
quote:
9. Urge Congress to pass the Graham-Blumenthal sanctions bill (which has 84 cosponsors in the Senate), & sign it into law. This will codify existing sanctions & expand the President’s ability to impose new measures.
quote:
10 These measures will:
• deter banks from processing Russian oil sales;
• deter ships from transporting Russian oil;
• deter refineries from buying Russian oil;
• deter purchases of refined products based on Russian oil;
• penalize India & China until they force their companies to stop;
and deprive Putin’s war economy of up to $600 million/per day in revenue, while giving Ukraine $5 billion in cash to buy weapons. (If the EU follows the US, another ~$300B in frozen money can be tapped)
quote:
The ruble will collapse. Without hard currency the Russian Central Bank won’t be able to keep intervening to prop it up. Russian banks will become insolvent. Their stock market will crash & eventually the economy will seize up.
As a ruble/dollar black market sets in, so will hyperinflation.
The war will finally become real for Muscovites.
quote:
When inflation eats away at their life savings; when they can’t access $ except via the black market; when prices double every few weeks; Putin’s war will become wildly unpopular. As will he. Then we will get an unconditional ceasefire, followed by a peace deal.
But of course, since Putin purchased a copy of the Epstein files, we all know none of this will be implemented.
Posted on 8/14/25 at 1:01 pm to cypher
Russian forces reportedly lose Su-30SM fighter jet near Zmiinyi (Snake) Island
Tetyana Oliynyk — Thursday, 14 August 2025, 18:42
Russian troops have likely lost a Su-30SM fighter jet that was carrying out a mission southeast of Zmiinyi (Snake) Island.
Source: Ukrainian Navy
Quote: "Ukrainian Navy intelligence intercepted radio communications about the loss of contact with a Russian Su-30SM fighter jet that was carrying out a mission southeast of Zmiinyi Island. The aircraft likely crashed for unknown reasons."
Details: The Navy reported Russian forces are conducting a search and rescue operation. Available information indicates that wreckage from the aircraft has been found on the sea surface. The pilots have not yet been located.
Ukrainska Pravda
Tetyana Oliynyk — Thursday, 14 August 2025, 18:42
Russian troops have likely lost a Su-30SM fighter jet that was carrying out a mission southeast of Zmiinyi (Snake) Island.
Source: Ukrainian Navy
Quote: "Ukrainian Navy intelligence intercepted radio communications about the loss of contact with a Russian Su-30SM fighter jet that was carrying out a mission southeast of Zmiinyi Island. The aircraft likely crashed for unknown reasons."
Details: The Navy reported Russian forces are conducting a search and rescue operation. Available information indicates that wreckage from the aircraft has been found on the sea surface. The pilots have not yet been located.
Ukrainska Pravda
Posted on 8/14/25 at 2:04 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Lot of hope and cope for a town that doesn't even matter (at least as of 2 days ago when you all independently, somehow at the exact same moment, decided that it doesn't).
Blackbird is reporting that the penetration has been mostly contained. They are also reporting that it was likely done by a relatively small force, roughly battalion size, and that the facts on the ground point to the breakthrough being a surprise even to the Russians themselves moreso than any kind of extra push. More of a "we saw an opportunity and took it" type deal than any kind of planned assault.
Recon groups have done this on both sides. In the Spring of 2022, Ukraine sent a recon force further through Russian lines all the way to Kherson airport and long before any offensive. They returned to their own lines unscathed.
As far as Pokrovsk, it is a transportation center and a hub to surrounding areas. It matters because it is one of several strongholds anchoring the eastern front for Ukraine. Early in 2022, it was the fall of Popasna which allowed Russians to advance along a ridge, before this Russia was restricted to roads in valleys along rivers and streams where they were eventually chopped up. The fall of Popasna led to the fall of Bakhmut It also led to the fall of Lysychansk which was a high point to shell Russians to north from several hundred feet up after Russia took the ammonia/heart meds/generic Viagra plant at Siverskodonetsk just across the small river. It allowed Russia to take land and highway behind Lysyschansk cutting off a major supply route and threaten from behind. Before this happened, Ukraine was seriously rectum raping Russian armor as it approached Siverskodonetsk. Dozens if not 100 or more BMPs and tanks were taken out by Ukraine with an immense loss of life by Russian soldiers.
Posted on 8/14/25 at 6:00 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Blackbird is reporting that the penetration has been mostly contained. They are also reporting that it was likely done by a relatively small force, roughly battalion size, and that the facts on the ground point to the breakthrough being a surprise even to the Russians themselves moreso than any kind of extra push. More of a "we saw an opportunity and took it" type deal than any kind of planned assault.
Their tactics are getting better
quote:
Russian forces are actively achieving some effects of battlefield air interdiction (BAI) of Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) with tactical unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), enabling Russian advances in eastern Ukraine. BAI is the use of air power to strike targets in the near rear of the frontline to impact battlefield operations in the near term.[3] These operationally significant targets include roads, railways, and bridges (infrastructure that supports GLOCs); command posts; ammunition depots; assembly areas; and training grounds. In simple terms, BAI aims to deny the adversary the use of crucial logistics lines and facilities necessary to sustain battlefield operations. Ukrainian servicemen and analysts reported that Russian forces began to systematically target Ukrainian GLOCs and other operationally significant targets with tactical first-person-view (FPV) UAVs and loitering munitions across the entire frontline as early as Winter and Spring 2025, effectively using these UAVs to interdict Ukrainian logistics ahead of the Russian Summer 2025 offensive.[4] Ukrainian sources noted that Russian forces previously only operated tactical UAVs on the battlefield, but that they have adapted these UAVs to strike Ukraine's near rear areas.[5] Russian forces recently made notable advances in the Lyman, Siversk, Kostyantynivka, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka directions, likely after achieving limited BAI effects with new FPV drone and loitering munitions adaptations.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-drone-innovations-are-likely-achieving-effects-battlefield-air-interdiction
ISW called this 8 days ago.
Eventually someone was going to invent this conflict's version of the creeping barrage.
My only question is is this it?
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