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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 8/12/25 at 6:42 pm to LSURussian
Posted on 8/12/25 at 6:42 pm to LSURussian
Yes the Russian advance has been at a snail's pace.
Does it matter how much territory you take if you are eliminating Ukraine's forces? The Ukrainian army that existed two years ago is gone.
Are we seeing the results of that now? Ukraine's lack of manpower is telling. Sooner or later what is left is going to break.
Ukraine was never going to win a war of attrition that includes manpower.
Just comes down to math.
Does it matter how much territory you take if you are eliminating Ukraine's forces? The Ukrainian army that existed two years ago is gone.
Are we seeing the results of that now? Ukraine's lack of manpower is telling. Sooner or later what is left is going to break.
Ukraine was never going to win a war of attrition that includes manpower.
Just comes down to math.
This post was edited on 8/12/25 at 6:45 pm
2
Posted on 8/12/25 at 7:11 pm to AU86
quote:
Does it matter how much territory you take if you are eliminating Ukraine's forces?
Yes. When attempting to conquer a country taking the actual territory is of high importance.
quote:
The Ukrainian army that existed two years ago is gone
This is true. The same can be said with the Russians, and considering the Russians are about to get 120,000 of their own men killed(with some North Koreans in there) they aren't going to be the same army in six months, let alone a year or two.
quote:
Ukraine's lack of manpower is telling. Sooner or later what is left is going to break
No. Sooner or later what is left will retreat back to a new, rebuilt defensive line and the whole thing will begin again. And the killing will continue.
Posted on 8/12/25 at 7:22 pm to Leopold
quote:
Yes. When attempting to conquer a country taking the actual territory is of high importance.
Then why didn't the British win the American Revolution?
Why did the federals not achieve ultimate success until Grant focused on destroying Lee's army instead of taking Richmond? Grant knew that his superior manpower and resources would eventually win out. Lee knew that when he was pinned down and it became a war of attrition it would be only a.matter of time. The South was running out of manpower and resources.
Why didn't Germany defeat the Soviets in 1941? They took a hell of a lot of territory. When the Nazi's lost the ability to maneuver and it became a war of attrition it was over. They could not match the allies manpower and resource superiority.
Why didn't Napoleon win when he took Moscow?
This post was edited on 8/12/25 at 7:30 pm
Posted on 8/12/25 at 8:26 pm to AU86
quote:They don’t have to win. They just have to tie.
Ukraine was never going to win a war of attrition
Posted on 8/12/25 at 9:06 pm to AU86
quote:
Yes. When attempting to conquer a country taking the actual territory is of high importance.
Then why didn't the British win the American Revolution?
Why did the federals not achieve ultimate success until Grant focused on destroying Lee's army instead of taking Richmond? Grant knew that his superior manpower and resources would eventually win out. Lee knew that when he was pinned down and it became a war of attrition it would be only a.matter of time. The South was running out of manpower and resources.
Why didn't Germany defeat the Soviets in 1941? They took a hell of a lot of territory. When the Nazi's lost the ability to maneuver and it became a war of attrition it was over. They could not match the allies manpower and resource superiority.
Why didn't Napoleon win when he took Moscow?
Does anyone else want to take this one? Because I feel like it's an easy win for someone....
Posted on 8/12/25 at 10:12 pm to LSURussian
quote:
They don’t have to win. They just have to tie.
They don’t lose if Ukraine survives as a sovereign nation.
Posted on 8/12/25 at 10:22 pm to Leopold
quote:
Yes. When attempting to conquer a country taking the actual territory is of high importance.
They’ve taken over 25% of Ukraines land that will very likely be part of Russia forever.
Is that good for Ukraine? Or do you think perhaps bad?
Posted on 8/13/25 at 12:21 am to texag7
“Forever’ is an awfully strong word when talking about these two countries, my brother….
Posted on 8/13/25 at 3:12 am to texag7
quote:You flunked fractions in middle school.
They’ve taken over 25% of Ukraines land
Posted on 8/13/25 at 4:33 am to LSURussian
So...no Crimea?
Russia has taken about 20% if that's included.
Russia has taken about 20% if that's included.
Posted on 8/13/25 at 6:19 am to Leopold
quote:
Does anyone else want to take this one? Because I feel like it's an easy win for someone....
Although talking about Grant is a shiny hook for me - as Americans, so much of our present attitude and world view can be traced to The Orange Plank Road - AU seems to be angry a lot, especially at me, so nothing I say will help.
Why is he angry? That word 'cauldron' he just used tells us where he is getting much of his information. It's a word that is almost exclusively used by Russians and those with Russian sources. So the disconnect he gets when he comes here after viewing those sources results in the anger. But his posts help keep this thread up and pinned, so no complaints.
.
The American attitude in one photo -
Posted on 8/13/25 at 6:19 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 8/13/25 at 6:37 am to Coeur du Tigre
Some sources have predicted an increase in Russian 'disinformation spreading, in order to cause confusion among Western allies and intra-Ukrainian conflicts ahead of the Trump-Putin meeting'. If so the WSJ may have reconsidered the timing of this article. But in any case it's a pertinent and interesting read.
LINK
quote:
Ukraine’s Once Nimble Army Is Mired in Soviet Decision-Making
quote:
SUMY, Ukraine — In the first year of Russia’s all-out invasion, Ukraine’s defenders repeatedly outmaneuvered a lumbering Russian army, relying on improvisation and the judgment of men in the field. Three years on, Ukraine’s military has slipped back into a more rigid, top-down mode of fighting with roots in the Soviet era, creating mounting frustration about unnecessary casualties while hurting civilian morale and army recruitment. Without overhauls, the Soviet-style habits could undermine Ukraine’s ability to sustain its defense against Russia, which shows no sign of relenting in its quest to conquer the country.
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Posted on 8/13/25 at 6:53 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Ukraine’s Once Nimble Army Is Mired in Soviet Decision-Making
The West forced Ukaine to use combined army strategy/tactics in the Summer of 2023 without combined army equipment, including air domination. Since then, it has been solely on the defense, though the Kursk offensive did use some facets of combined army tactics.
Posted on 8/13/25 at 7:17 am to CitizenK
quote:
The West forced Ukaine to use combined army strategy/tactics in the Summer of 2023 without combined army equipment, including air domination. Since then, it has been solely on the defense, though the Kursk offensive did use some facets of combined army tactics.
Drones are amazing but both sides may be leaning on them too much. The book on drone use in context with combined arms is still being written. This latest Russian incursion has been successful to some degree, so we'll see those lessons applied elsewhere by both sides.
Posted on 8/13/25 at 7:22 am to CitizenK
Noted Russian disinformation outlet Bild reporting on strategically insignificant Russian breakthrough in Donetsk cutting off major highway to Kramatorsk and encircling Pokrovsk 
Posted on 8/13/25 at 7:33 am to Coeur du Tigre
More on the Ukrainian strike on the Unecha oil pumping station -
If accurate, this map shows how strategic this site is. Surprised it doesn't get much more attention but maybe is was 'protected' before the gloves came off on the Russian petroleum targets recently.
Massive underground storage at this site. Normally a nitrogen blanket is used in these tanks, so getting them burning will take an effort. But once they start to burn, it will be massive.
quote:
... in the Bryansk region of Russia, the "Unecha" oil pumping station, which is involved in supplying the occupiers' army, was hit. Damage and a large-scale fire were recorded in the area of the auxiliary pumping station building.
quote:
There is also information about explosions in the area of the tank farm and the section where main and booster pumps are located. "Unecha" provides oil transportation for two pipelines simultaneously. It has an annual capacity to pump 60 million tons of raw material.
If accurate, this map shows how strategic this site is. Surprised it doesn't get much more attention but maybe is was 'protected' before the gloves came off on the Russian petroleum targets recently.
Massive underground storage at this site. Normally a nitrogen blanket is used in these tanks, so getting them burning will take an effort. But once they start to burn, it will be massive.
quote:
Fire map confirms fire at Unecha main oil pumping station of Druzhba pipeline Russia, Bryansk region
Posted on 8/13/25 at 7:37 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Drones are amazing but both sides may be leaning on them too much. The book on drone use in context with combined arms is still being written. This latest Russian incursion has been successful to some degree, so we'll see those lessons applied elsewhere by both sides.
I think we will have another evolution in drone offense and defense.
Counter drone systems and AI enabled drones are both coming.
New releases on the internet by US companies like Anduril and out of China show divergent designs and packages.
Hardening and speed are going to grow massively.
Once AI Makes drones free from the human, speed can grow to blur the line between drone and missile.
Its also causing large investment in energy weapons that never had a real driving need.
Its all a question on which one makes a leap into dominance first.
This post was edited on 8/13/25 at 7:39 am
Posted on 8/13/25 at 7:47 am to Coeur du Tigre
Crude oil is not refined products for fueling vehicles.
This is around 1.2 million barrels per day for CRUDE OIL.
Orban will scream like a stuck pig, as usual
This is around 1.2 million barrels per day for CRUDE OIL.
Orban will scream like a stuck pig, as usual
Posted on 8/13/25 at 8:03 am to CitizenK
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