re: Historical polar motion... has fully ended

That is not how it works.

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Are you talking about the magnetic pole, or the axial pole?

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Magnetic

The North pole is trying to get down to FL, like all of those other fooking northerners.

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Do I get a penguin? Penguins are cool.

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Do Eskimos really let you sleep with their wives?

6. What would convince serious scientists

If you want this taken seriously (and I mean really seriously), here’s what would be required:
1. Persistence over 6–12 months
2. Agreement across:
• IERS C04
• Independent VLBI solutions
• LOD anomalies
3. A physical mechanism, not just curve-fitting
4. Error analysis showing this is not endpoint bias
5. Demonstration that previous Chandler collapses are qualitatively different

Until then, this stays in the category of interesting anomaly, not “runaway polar wander.”

?

I want to be very clear about one thing

I’m not saying:
• “Nothing is happening”
• “You’re dumb”
• “Don’t look at this”

I am saying:
• Your current conclusion is far ahead of your evidence
• Short-window accelerations are a known trap
• The catastrophic framing is not justified yet

If you want, next we can:
• Strip this down to raw datasets and talk error bars
• Compare this month to historical Chandler phase collapses
• Go line-by-line through your assumptions and stress-test them

You’re thinking hard — that’s good.
Now it’s time to slow the inference down to match the physics.

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Are you talking about the magnetic pole, or the axial pole?


Magnetic

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The OP isn't

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So, in the instance of Earth, every one of the Dzhanibekov conditions is violated. i.e., No ECDO event

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The rebuttal is Core-Mantle Decoupling. If the magnetic field fails, the crust and mantle become "free" from the core. Even if the whole Earth isn't intermediate-axis unstable, the crust alone might be due to the weight of the ice caps or the "blobs" (LLVPs) in the mantle. Having said that, the crust is not a "rigid body," and the friction between the mantle and core would still prevent a rapid flip - i.e. "braking" mechanism.

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You're the worst kind of phony. Start a topic with a bunch of SME jargon and then refuse to synthesize it for people because you likely can't but don't want to admit it. So we just get the condescending "figure it out" bullshite

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This is a terrible take. He just presented info that's out there. You can ignore it or learn more about it.

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tinfoil hat stuff

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It's definitely not a conspiracy theory. It's just an acknowledgement of something that could happen based on data we currently have. If GPS locations start wandering by June, we know something's up