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Hidden in the tariff news is the fact that the 10 year yield has dropped below 4%
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:05 am
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:05 am
We have $9.2 trillion in debt we must refinance in 2025. Lower yields free up fiscal room
Someone did the math on this
This will also help consumer credit markets. The most obvious being the mortgage industry.
Trade uncertainty is a big factor in the pullback of the yield. Wouldn't it be interesting if Trump refinanced our debt lower saving us billions while also winning this trade war and saving/generating billions more? Nah...that could never happen.
Someone did the math on this
quote:
If rolled into 10-yr bonds, every 1 basis point drop in rates saves approx $1B/year; so a 0.5% drop would save $500B over a decade.
This will also help consumer credit markets. The most obvious being the mortgage industry.
Trade uncertainty is a big factor in the pullback of the yield. Wouldn't it be interesting if Trump refinanced our debt lower saving us billions while also winning this trade war and saving/generating billions more? Nah...that could never happen.
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:07 am to stout
its genius. All these simp melting down have no idea how bad inflation would be over the next 5-10 years if this debt was refinanced at 4.5% +
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:07 am to stout
Slackster and the MB geniuses said theb10yr would be at 5%
Bessent said this was going to happen to get the yield under 4%
The feds in a pickle tho
Bessent said this was going to happen to get the yield under 4%
The feds in a pickle tho
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:09 am to SDVTiger
quote:
The feds in a pickle tho
Muh soft landing...
The FED has done more to wipe out the middle class the past 5 years than we could have possibly dreamed of
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:11 am to stout
Crashed my 401k to lower 10y
Lol glad I am diversified
Lol glad I am diversified
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:13 am to thelawnwranglers
quote:
Crashed my 401k to lower 10y
when your Biden crashed your 401k 30% in 2022 he raised the 10y on you dumb frick
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:16 am to stout
Just staying extremely liquid for the market pumps
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:16 am to stout
quote:
The feds in a pickle tho
Muh soft landing...
The FED has done more to wipe out the middle class the past 5 years than we could have possibly dreamed of
True, but it's not simply the Fed, it's the Fed and their minions on Wall Street, Institutional and Investment Banks.....and of course the out of control deficit spending DC Uniparty Globalists.
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:16 am to stout
quote:
Hidden in the tariff news is the fact that the 10 year yield has dropped below 4%
I’ve believed since day one that Trump being a real estate guy would make restructuring our debt at lower rates a top priority and would find a way to minimize what would otherwise be a real estate crash while making entry level housing affordable for new home buyers.
If it were me I’d be pairing up first time homebuyers with the foreclosure bubble that hasn’t been popped under Biden by sitting on the overdue loans while lowering interest rates in the hope of making the existing inventory more affordable if inflation is reduced by other means as is currently happening.
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:17 am to thelawnwranglers
Are you currently retired or about to? If not, dont whine about your 401k 
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:17 am to stout
Now is the time to call to refi
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:18 am to GeauxBurrow312
quote:
Are you currently retired or about to? If not, dont whine about your 401k
Despite me stirring the pot with doomer news here, I don't disagree with the idea our economy has been fraudulent/inflated the past few years -- even 20 years, really. Maybe this is what was needed to get prices down. But, this won't just hurt rich guys with their 401(k)s. Pension funds are going to be screaming from rooftops if they don't get their assumed 7% returns -- and they may eventually need PBGC protection and bailouts. You may not care about that, but if a big one like Central States goes down, it may take down the entire system. Many of them have finally dug out from '08/'09. I just don't know if the country has the patience to carry out whatever the long term plan is here.
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:21 am to GeauxBurrow312
quote:
Are you currently retired or about to? If not, dont whine about your 401k
I bought 20y 2 years ago
They are about to print
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:22 am to stout
and Oil down to $61
cheap energy - lower rates - lower taxes -
what a time to invest!!
cheap energy - lower rates - lower taxes -
what a time to invest!!
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:23 am to stout
I said the same in GeneralLee's post. Bessent has been shouting this from the rooftops in his interviews if anyone would bother to listen.
The Admin inherited basically a 5%,10-year rate, and the way things are going it is moving to sub-3%. If Bessent pulls this off he'll be an unsung hero.
The Admin inherited basically a 5%,10-year rate, and the way things are going it is moving to sub-3%. If Bessent pulls this off he'll be an unsung hero.
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:23 am to stout
I think y’all should stop using the term “class”
It’s working for a living vs not working for a living
People who work are being crushed, doctors, lawyers, plumbers, the guy who picks up your trash can, we’re all the same
People who don’t work have been living like kings, finance ghouls, Wall Street bros, mitt Romney types, people on welfare, they are all the same
Maybe this is the working class finally rising up against the forces of evil
It’s working for a living vs not working for a living
People who work are being crushed, doctors, lawyers, plumbers, the guy who picks up your trash can, we’re all the same
People who don’t work have been living like kings, finance ghouls, Wall Street bros, mitt Romney types, people on welfare, they are all the same
Maybe this is the working class finally rising up against the forces of evil
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:24 am to Bunk Moreland
Boomer entitlement is certainly a problem. They are going to have to get used to living with their means, maybe cutting back on the avocado toast and coffee. Especially when DOGE makes cuts to medicare to get the budget under control
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:25 am to TerraForma
quote:
I said the same in GeneralLee's post
I think general lee is some sort of finance ghoul it’s no wonder he hates Trump
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:26 am to SDVTiger
quote:
Slackster and the MB geniuses said theb10yr would be at 5%
Bessent said this was going to happen to get the yield under 4%
The feds in a pickle tho
The Fed will cut and with it M2 and the economy will blast off. Could take a year though.
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:27 am to stout
The Fed's Fund Rate is currently 4.33%. With the 10 year note at 3.9% the yield curve is being inverted.
What does this mean?
1. Historically it's a recession signal. The market expects the Fed to cut rates in the future, possibly due to slower economic growth or financial instability.
2. Credit market is tightening. Banks make money by borrowing at short-term rates and lending at long-term rates. If short-term rates (like the Fed Funds Rate) are higher than long-term rates (like the 10-year yield), banks' profit margins shrink, leading to tighter lending conditions. This could result in less credit availability for businesses and consumers, slowing down economic growth.
3. Stocks market generally goes down. Investors may rotate out of stocks and into bonds if they believe a slowdown or recession is coming. Equity markets often become more volatile when the yield curve inverts.
4. The Fed may be forced to cut interest rates sooner than expected to prevent an economic downturn. However, if inflation remains a concern, they might hesitate, creating policy uncertainty.
5. Mortgage rates are often influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield. A lower 10-year yield could lead to slightly lower mortgage rates, but if banks tighten lending standards due to the inverted curve, it could still hurt the housing market.
Just my opinion but I see this as all healthy (I've also position a lot of my personal finances almost a year ago into bond funds waiting for this to happen. Now I'm considering going long in equities while everyone is selling.)
What does this mean?
1. Historically it's a recession signal. The market expects the Fed to cut rates in the future, possibly due to slower economic growth or financial instability.
2. Credit market is tightening. Banks make money by borrowing at short-term rates and lending at long-term rates. If short-term rates (like the Fed Funds Rate) are higher than long-term rates (like the 10-year yield), banks' profit margins shrink, leading to tighter lending conditions. This could result in less credit availability for businesses and consumers, slowing down economic growth.
3. Stocks market generally goes down. Investors may rotate out of stocks and into bonds if they believe a slowdown or recession is coming. Equity markets often become more volatile when the yield curve inverts.
4. The Fed may be forced to cut interest rates sooner than expected to prevent an economic downturn. However, if inflation remains a concern, they might hesitate, creating policy uncertainty.
5. Mortgage rates are often influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield. A lower 10-year yield could lead to slightly lower mortgage rates, but if banks tighten lending standards due to the inverted curve, it could still hurt the housing market.
Just my opinion but I see this as all healthy (I've also position a lot of my personal finances almost a year ago into bond funds waiting for this to happen. Now I'm considering going long in equities while everyone is selling.)
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