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Hidden in the tariff news is the fact that the 10 year yield has dropped below 4%

Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:05 am
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
182512 posts
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:05 am
We have $9.2 trillion in debt we must refinance in 2025. Lower yields free up fiscal room

Someone did the math on this

quote:

If rolled into 10-yr bonds, every 1 basis point drop in rates saves approx $1B/year; so a 0.5% drop would save $500B over a decade.






This will also help consumer credit markets. The most obvious being the mortgage industry.

Trade uncertainty is a big factor in the pullback of the yield. Wouldn't it be interesting if Trump refinanced our debt lower saving us billions while also winning this trade war and saving/generating billions more? Nah...that could never happen.
Posted by theRealJesseD
Member since Nov 2021
4715 posts
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:07 am to
its genius. All these simp melting down have no idea how bad inflation would be over the next 5-10 years if this debt was refinanced at 4.5% +
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
98240 posts
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:07 am to
Slackster and the MB geniuses said theb10yr would be at 5%

Bessent said this was going to happen to get the yield under 4%

The feds in a pickle tho
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
182512 posts
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:09 am to
quote:

The feds in a pickle tho



Muh soft landing...

The FED has done more to wipe out the middle class the past 5 years than we could have possibly dreamed of
Posted by thelawnwranglers
Member since Sep 2007
42360 posts
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:11 am to
Crashed my 401k to lower 10y

Lol glad I am diversified
Posted by theRealJesseD
Member since Nov 2021
4715 posts
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:13 am to
quote:

Crashed my 401k to lower 10y


when your Biden crashed your 401k 30% in 2022 he raised the 10y on you dumb frick
Posted by The Egg
Houston, TX
Member since Dec 2004
83735 posts
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:16 am to
Just staying extremely liquid for the market pumps
Posted by Bass Tiger
Member since Oct 2014
55757 posts
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:16 am to
quote:

The feds in a pickle tho



Muh soft landing...

The FED has done more to wipe out the middle class the past 5 years than we could have possibly dreamed of



True, but it's not simply the Fed, it's the Fed and their minions on Wall Street, Institutional and Investment Banks.....and of course the out of control deficit spending DC Uniparty Globalists.
Posted by tide06
Member since Oct 2011
23381 posts
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:16 am to
quote:

Hidden in the tariff news is the fact that the 10 year yield has dropped below 4%

I’ve believed since day one that Trump being a real estate guy would make restructuring our debt at lower rates a top priority and would find a way to minimize what would otherwise be a real estate crash while making entry level housing affordable for new home buyers.

If it were me I’d be pairing up first time homebuyers with the foreclosure bubble that hasn’t been popped under Biden by sitting on the overdue loans while lowering interest rates in the hope of making the existing inventory more affordable if inflation is reduced by other means as is currently happening.
Posted by GeauxBurrow312
Member since Nov 2024
6269 posts
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:17 am to
Are you currently retired or about to? If not, dont whine about your 401k
Posted by Man4others
Member since Aug 2017
2501 posts
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:17 am to
Now is the time to call to refi
Posted by Bunk Moreland
Member since Dec 2010
68460 posts
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:18 am to
quote:

Are you currently retired or about to? If not, dont whine about your 401k

Despite me stirring the pot with doomer news here, I don't disagree with the idea our economy has been fraudulent/inflated the past few years -- even 20 years, really. Maybe this is what was needed to get prices down. But, this won't just hurt rich guys with their 401(k)s. Pension funds are going to be screaming from rooftops if they don't get their assumed 7% returns -- and they may eventually need PBGC protection and bailouts. You may not care about that, but if a big one like Central States goes down, it may take down the entire system. Many of them have finally dug out from '08/'09. I just don't know if the country has the patience to carry out whatever the long term plan is here.
Posted by thelawnwranglers
Member since Sep 2007
42360 posts
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:21 am to
quote:

Are you currently retired or about to? If not, dont whine about your 401k


I bought 20y 2 years ago

They are about to print
Posted by theRealJesseD
Member since Nov 2021
4715 posts
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:22 am to
and Oil down to $61

cheap energy - lower rates - lower taxes -


what a time to invest!!
Posted by TerraForma
Moscow, ID
Member since Mar 2025
166 posts
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:23 am to
I said the same in GeneralLee's post. Bessent has been shouting this from the rooftops in his interviews if anyone would bother to listen.

The Admin inherited basically a 5%,10-year rate, and the way things are going it is moving to sub-3%. If Bessent pulls this off he'll be an unsung hero.

Posted by el Gaucho
He/They
Member since Dec 2010
59214 posts
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:23 am to
I think y’all should stop using the term “class”

It’s working for a living vs not working for a living


People who work are being crushed, doctors, lawyers, plumbers, the guy who picks up your trash can, we’re all the same


People who don’t work have been living like kings, finance ghouls, Wall Street bros, mitt Romney types, people on welfare, they are all the same


Maybe this is the working class finally rising up against the forces of evil
Posted by GeauxBurrow312
Member since Nov 2024
6269 posts
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:24 am to
Boomer entitlement is certainly a problem. They are going to have to get used to living with their means, maybe cutting back on the avocado toast and coffee. Especially when DOGE makes cuts to medicare to get the budget under control
Posted by el Gaucho
He/They
Member since Dec 2010
59214 posts
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:25 am to
quote:

I said the same in GeneralLee's post

I think general lee is some sort of finance ghoul it’s no wonder he hates Trump
Posted by TerraForma
Moscow, ID
Member since Mar 2025
166 posts
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:26 am to
quote:

Slackster and the MB geniuses said theb10yr would be at 5%

Bessent said this was going to happen to get the yield under 4%

The feds in a pickle tho


The Fed will cut and with it M2 and the economy will blast off. Could take a year though.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
140573 posts
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:27 am to
The Fed's Fund Rate is currently 4.33%. With the 10 year note at 3.9% the yield curve is being inverted.


What does this mean?


1. Historically it's a recession signal. The market expects the Fed to cut rates in the future, possibly due to slower economic growth or financial instability.

2. Credit market is tightening. Banks make money by borrowing at short-term rates and lending at long-term rates. If short-term rates (like the Fed Funds Rate) are higher than long-term rates (like the 10-year yield), banks' profit margins shrink, leading to tighter lending conditions. This could result in less credit availability for businesses and consumers, slowing down economic growth.

3. Stocks market generally goes down. Investors may rotate out of stocks and into bonds if they believe a slowdown or recession is coming. Equity markets often become more volatile when the yield curve inverts.

4. The Fed may be forced to cut interest rates sooner than expected to prevent an economic downturn. However, if inflation remains a concern, they might hesitate, creating policy uncertainty.

5. Mortgage rates are often influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield. A lower 10-year yield could lead to slightly lower mortgage rates, but if banks tighten lending standards due to the inverted curve, it could still hurt the housing market.


Just my opinion but I see this as all healthy (I've also position a lot of my personal finances almost a year ago into bond funds waiting for this to happen. Now I'm considering going long in equities while everyone is selling.)
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