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re: Hidden in the tariff news is the fact that the 10 year yield has dropped below 4%
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:29 am to el Gaucho
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:29 am to el Gaucho
I wouldnt classify wall street as "not working" - those baws put in long hours. My friends who went the IB route have put in crazy hours over the years
0
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:31 am to Bunk Moreland
quote:
But, this won't just hurt rich guys with their 401(k)s. Pension funds are going to be screaming from rooftops if they don't get their assumed 7% returns -- and they may eventually need PBGC protection and bailouts.
Because pension funds have over extended their portfolio in CLOs from private equity.
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:34 am to GumboPot
quote:
Now I'm considering going long in equities while everyone is selling
I would wait a few weeks before doing that. I dont think we are at our bottom yet, especially since the figs in Europe and Canada have already said they are going to escalate the trade war. Markets will bottom out after they announce higher tariffs on the US
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:35 am to stout
It hasnt really been hidden. Some individuals have just been too focused on sp500 or nasdaq to understand whats really going on.
This is actually brilliant economics that might just save us from a very real economic collapse.
This is actually brilliant economics that might just save us from a very real economic collapse.
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:38 am to stout
Since Trump declared this an economic emergency, the other day, I believe that gives him the ability to fire Powell if Powell becomes defiant, which, let’s be honest, he was since Trumps first term.
If it came to that, the libs and senate gop cucks might meld into their satanic overlords.
If it came to that, the libs and senate gop cucks might meld into their satanic overlords.
This post was edited on 4/4/25 at 8:41 am
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:41 am to stout
5 trillion in wealth was wiped out in 2 days. Now that's just paper wealth that has the chance to recover.
But saving 500 billion over a decade seems pretty trivial compared to the amount of global economic damage that is being caused
This just seems like shifting of the goal posts on what the strategy and desired outcome is.
But saving 500 billion over a decade seems pretty trivial compared to the amount of global economic damage that is being caused
This just seems like shifting of the goal posts on what the strategy and desired outcome is.
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:52 am to Powerman
$50b a year savings is $150 per capita, thats not trivial for a one off cut. Same cost savings as getting rid of USAID
Posted on 4/4/25 at 9:01 am to Powerman
quote:It is already a 1.2% drop (and still dropping) from what Trump/Bessent inherited, not the 0.5% in the OP. That is $1.2 Trillion saved over a decade in worthless interest payments and I would speculate we'll see at least <3.5% on the 10 year. That is 1.5%, or $1.5 Trillion saved.
But saving 500 billion over a decade seems pretty trivial compared to the amount of global economic damage that is being caused
Posted on 4/4/25 at 9:03 am to TerraForma
quote:
It is already a 1.2% drop (and still dropping) from what Trump/Bessent inherited, not the 0.5% in the OP. That is $1.2 Trillion saved over a decade in worthless interest payments and I would speculate we'll see at least <3.5% on the 10 year. That is 1.5%, or $1.5 Trillion saved.
Thanks for clarifying.
Now we're talking about some real numbers
Posted on 4/4/25 at 9:25 am to TerraForma
quote:
TerraForma
Interesting user name, are you an alter or actually new to the site?
Posted on 4/4/25 at 9:29 am to GeauxBurrow312
quote:
I would wait a few weeks before doing that. I dont think we are at our bottom yet, especially since the figs in Europe and Canada have already said they are going to escalate the trade war. Markets will bottom out after they announce higher tariffs on the US
Posted on 4/4/25 at 9:35 am to Powerman
quote:
5 trillion in wealth was wiped out in 2 days. Now that's just paper wealth that has the chance to recover.
But saving 500 billion over a decade seems pretty trivial compared to the amount of global economic damage that is being caused
This just seems like shifting of the goal posts on what the strategy and desired outcome is.
While stocks get the headlines when they drop, the full picture of 401(k) performance includes bond gains, ongoing contributions, and market cycles that typically rebound over time.
Posted on 4/4/25 at 9:37 am to stout
I can't remember who it was, but somebody a few weeks back posted a long and detailed post about essentially this. Wasn't even something that crossed my mind, but it really made a lot of sense when taking a step back. Thanks for sharing again.
Posted on 4/4/25 at 9:38 am to stout
quote:
Wouldn't it be interesting if Trump refinanced our debt lower saving us billions while also winning this trade war and saving/generating billions more? Nah...that could never happen.
Posted on 4/4/25 at 9:39 am to stout
quote:
would save $500B over a decade.
Drop in the bucket, amirite?
Posted on 4/4/25 at 9:42 am to GumboPot
quote:
While stocks get the headlines when they drop, the full picture of 401(k) performance includes bond gains, ongoing contributions, and market cycles that typically rebound over time.
Stocks don't only exist in retirement accounts. The stock market has already lost another 2.5 trillion this morning. If course that is subject to be reversed by the end of day.
This is the worst start to the stock market since the dot com sell off in W's first term.
Posted on 4/4/25 at 9:43 am to Bunk Moreland
quote:
Pension funds are going to be screaming from rooftops if they don't get their assumed 7% returns -- and they may eventually need PBGC protection and bailouts.
Pension funds are antiquated. Why should the country suffer because a few idiots don't understand math? My friend's dad worked for 30 years and then lived 30 years off his pension. Many pensions also pay out to people who were only there 5 years. That simply isn't sustainable.
quote:
You may not care about that, but if a big one like Central States goes down, it may take down the entire system.
So, they're too big to fail?
Posted on 4/4/25 at 9:48 am to stout
Dats some serious debt refinancing progress news, baw! 
Posted on 4/4/25 at 9:50 am to thelawnwranglers
quote:
Crashed my 401k to lower 10y
Tell me you didn't sell you dummy
Posted on 4/4/25 at 9:53 am to Meauxjeaux
quote:
Tell me you didn't sell you dummy
I'm sure he isn't taking early distributions from his 401K that come with penalties and taxes right after a short downturn
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