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re: Hidden in the tariff news is the fact that the 10 year yield has dropped below 4%
Posted on 4/4/25 at 9:57 am to stout
Posted on 4/4/25 at 9:57 am to stout
quote:Also under-noticed was OPEC's "surprise" announcement:
Hidden in the tariff news is the fact that the 10 year yield has dropped below 4%
stout
We have $9.2 trillion in debt we must refinance in 2025. Lower yields free up fiscal room
quote:
Eight members of the OPEC Plus oil cartel, led by Saudi Arabia, said Thursday that they would accelerate their previously planned schedule to gradually add about 2.2 million barrels a day to the oil market.
The producers, including Russia, will add a combined 411,000 barrels a day in May, equivalent to three monthly increases, they said in a news release. They had already agreed in March to begin producing more oil this month.
Oil prices fell sharply on Thursday, weighed down by both the fear that increasing trade frictions would torpedo global growth and the prospect of increased supplies of oil. Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell 6 percent, and West Texas Intermediate, the American standard, dropped 6.6 percent.
The falling oil prices were a rare bit of good news for the global economy on a day when stock markets around the world plummeted after President Trump unveiled tariffs on America’s trading partners.
LINK
Absolutely not a coincidence. Here's my take:
Vance/Thiel/Trump are absolutely serious about what they are doing - it's a plan and not chaos.
Tariffs are but one leg of the stool.
Treasury yields: Bessent has the task of refinancing a massive portion of debt that is expiring and rates need to be as low as possible. If he can thread the needle there, then he can look to address the longer end of the curve as well.
If rates stay down, housing becomes more affordable too.
Inflation. It's dumb to pretend tariffs aren't inflationary. They are. However, energy is perhaps the one ring that rules them all. So there is a concerted effort to crash oil into the 50s if not 40s. If that happens, that is VERY counter-inflationary. ETA: hardcore negotiations going on with Saudi to unleash the full 1.9MBPD capacity overhand NOW.
I'm not sure they can pull it off, but more fulsome reporting on all aspects would certainly place things into more perspective than just freaking out about equity markets going down.
This post was edited on 4/4/25 at 10:00 am
1
Posted on 4/4/25 at 9:57 am to GumboPot
quote:You win the gold star for reciting buzzwords you don't even understand.
Because pension funds have over extended their portfolio in CLOs from private equity.
Posted on 4/4/25 at 9:58 am to stout
The Home Lenders Association may need to recalculate their expected mortgage rates over the next 2 years.
Posted on 4/4/25 at 10:00 am to stout
quote:
10 year yield has dropped
This was the goal. Powell could have done it, but he is a bitch, so Team Trump had to take matters into their own hands.
Posted on 4/4/25 at 10:01 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:
t's dumb to pretend tariffs aren't inflationary. They are.
Tariffs are deflationary.
Posted on 4/4/25 at 11:15 am to SaturatedPhat
quote:You're saying long-term because of demand destruction?
Tariffs are deflationary.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 9:35 pm to stout
I would welcome this either way open arms. I lost in my 401k but not planning on retiring anytime soon. Just built mtg forever home when rates were in the low 3% range. Covid, hurricane and supply and demand issues stretched the build to over 16 months. Had to lock in at 6.75%.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 10:12 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
Slackster and the MB geniuses said theb10yr would be at 5%
Fake news.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 10:54 pm to stout
That’s because the majority of Americans think the economy is the stock market and egg prices.
Trump is thinking big picture and actively trying to g to save America.
Trump is thinking big picture and actively trying to g to save America.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 11:17 pm to stout
quote:
Someone did the math on this
quote:
If rolled into 10-yr bonds, every 1 basis point drop in rates saves approx $1B/year; so a 0.5% drop would save $500B over a decade.
Treasury Sec dude mentions this in his tariff discussion with Tucker last week. Pretty solid interview. Seems like a like a solid guy/pick.
Posted on 4/7/25 at 12:01 am to stout
To learn more about the dire need for this, I offer this interview. It simply must get to 3%.
Posted on 4/7/25 at 8:40 am to stout
quote:Not anymore...
the 10 year yield has dropped below 4%
Posted on 4/7/25 at 8:45 am to SaturatedPhat
quote:
t's dumb to pretend tariffs aren't inflationary. They are
quote:The entire prupose of tariffs is to cause price inflation. If they don't, they cannot work, by definintion.
Tariffs are deflationary.
The problem is, they don't cause growth, because they are ineffecient. It's wasted captial. So while they drive prices up, they don't increase economic creation, so they oppose raising the money supply.
Classic stagflation recipe. Which is good news for those people that want to return to the Jimmah Carter era of economics!
Posted on 4/7/25 at 9:20 am to GeauxBurrow312
quote:
Bunk Moreland
Boomer entitlement is certainly a problem. They are going to have to get used to living with their means, maybe cutting back on the avocado toast and coffee.
I thought avocado toast was a millennial thing?
Posted on 4/7/25 at 9:22 am to Taxing Authority
quote:
The entire prupose of tariffs is to cause price inflation. If they don't, they cannot work, by definintion.
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