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re: Elon: DOGE probably won’t find $2 trillion in federal budget cuts

Posted on 1/9/25 at 11:19 am to
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
477031 posts
Posted on 1/9/25 at 11:19 am to
quote:

$65 billion of the military budget to Ukraine is a papercut compared to the severe wound the New Deal and the Great Society saddled us with.

Preach.

I've been trying to explain this for years.

What we sent to Ukraine so far is like 1.5 months of SS payments
This post was edited on 1/9/25 at 11:20 am
Posted by NIH
Member since Aug 2008
122874 posts
Posted on 1/9/25 at 11:21 am to
Yet you support funding war in Ukraine? Explain
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
140573 posts
Posted on 1/9/25 at 11:21 am to
quote:

Well, it is technically not true, but the alternative is political suicide.


Presidents have used this method (not solely) from 1862 to 1971 when Nixon abandoned it.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
477031 posts
Posted on 1/9/25 at 11:23 am to
quote:

That is your position, what you wrote, not what Elon said.


It's literally what he said

quote:

I think if we try for $2 trillion, we’ve got a good shot at getting 1,


"Good shot" = probably
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
477031 posts
Posted on 1/9/25 at 11:24 am to
quote:

Yet you support funding war in Ukraine? Explain


You had perfect timing for this digression attempt
Posted by pbro62
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2016
15325 posts
Posted on 1/9/25 at 11:26 am to
Your dumbass couldn’t find a dime because you are always spewing shite on here. Your fake arse practice and clients must be the dumbest frickers in the world to even associate with you. frick off.
Posted by Vacherie Saint
Member since Aug 2015
47588 posts
Posted on 1/9/25 at 11:26 am to
how can you correct someone who is always right?
Posted by OceanMan
Member since Mar 2010
23219 posts
Posted on 1/9/25 at 11:27 am to
quote:

It's not a matter of what anyone says. The math and keeping entitlements off the table dictate the answer a priori.


Of course it matters. The OP is a misrepresentation of what was said in order to back into a point.

Our budget could be $0, everything in between that and the current one is politics, lobbying and plain old posturing.
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
39872 posts
Posted on 1/9/25 at 11:28 am to
quote:

Your dumbass couldn’t find a dime because you are always spewing shite on here. Your fake arse practice and clients must be the dumbest frickers in the world to even associate with you. frick off.
Dear child.
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
63419 posts
Posted on 1/9/25 at 11:28 am to
quote:

No. I think the point is for us to have realistic expectations and realize that this is just Elon being hyperbolic which he has a history of doing.
I think it’s more naivte than hyperbole on Elon’s part. As a CEO private industry you can makes cuts without the need to remain popular. In government not so much. And it’s only gettinlg worse as more people are dependent on the government and fewer pay taxes.
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
63419 posts
Posted on 1/9/25 at 11:31 am to
quote:

If it goes nowhere, everyone can say it wasn't real or run by Trump/.gov, anyway.
Worked for H1Bs.
Posted by OceanMan
Member since Mar 2010
23219 posts
Posted on 1/9/25 at 11:38 am to
quote:

It's literally what he said


It is not, I’ve already explained this to you. There is a difference in “probably won’t find” and “good shot achieving”

He isn’t saying he won’t find it, he is saying if that is what is proposed, there is a good shot of getting half. He goes on to say that with economic growth, he believes this will be satisfactory to achieve the goal.

Saying he won’t find it is, of course, a negative spin on his actual comment.
Posted by OceanMan
Member since Mar 2010
23219 posts
Posted on 1/9/25 at 11:39 am to
quote:

how can you correct someone who is always right?


Nobody gets to derail SFP threads, he wouldn’t do that to you.

We are definitely dealing with someone with the utmost intellectual integrity.
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
63419 posts
Posted on 1/9/25 at 11:43 am to
quote:

For me? Anything a trillion or more would be an unprecedented step in the right direction.
Agreed.

quote:

But what I want and what 350MM other Americans want vs what can be achieved are all likely wildly different.

Alos agreed. $1T would 58% of all discretionary and DoD. Would lead to drastic layoffs in government workers and defense contractors. I can hear the howls now about high unemployment and “i lost my job because of Trump” in the campaign ads already.

quote:

I’m just happy someone, for the first time in forever, is trying.
Until entitlements are addressed it’s just mental masturbation. Hopefully we’re at the beginning of real change, but I see no signs of it yet. :fingers crossed:
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
63419 posts
Posted on 1/9/25 at 11:46 am to
quote:

Presidents have used this method (not solely) from 1862 to 1971 when Nixon abandoned it.
And what was our federal debt them vs now? It’s like when people say “we once funded the entire government on tariffs”… yeah if government was still 1-2% of GDP we could totally do it. Unfortunately it’s not. And what worked befor le won’t work now any more than having a career making buggy whips.
Posted by Gondor
Jacksonville, Fl
Member since Nov 2004
1030 posts
Posted on 1/9/25 at 11:53 am to
A monkey with crayons could find 1 trillion in waste spending.
Posted by RT1941
Member since May 2007
32075 posts
Posted on 1/9/25 at 11:54 am to
quote:

Frankly, IDGAF if they miss this "goal" as long as something meaningful is done. The alternative was zero waste reduction and zero spending cuts.


Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
477031 posts
Posted on 1/9/25 at 11:56 am to
quote:

There is a difference in “probably won’t find” and “good shot achieving”


Yeah but the "good shot" was for 1, which is below 2

"good shot" implies 1 isn't a guarantee, which means "probably" is euphemistic for what he actually said.

quote:

He isn’t saying he won’t find it, he is saying if that is what is proposed, there is a good shot of getting half.

Which means he isn't "probably" coming close to 2

quote:

He goes on to say that with economic growth, he believes this will be satisfactory to achieve the goal.

We're not growing our economy by $4-5T anytime soon, just FWIW.

quote:

Saying he won’t find it is, of course, a negative spin on his actual comment.

Won't find the full $2T. His comments don't even seem confident in half that. In what way is "probably" not adequate, let alone a positive spin on his words?

You're playing loose with the $1T and $2T.

I'll put it plainly.

If he believes there is a "good shot" they can get $1T, in what way can you interpret that as making a claim that $2T is a probable outcome?

Probable, obviously, meaning more likely than not, or over 50%.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
477031 posts
Posted on 1/9/25 at 12:01 pm to
quote:

And what was our federal debt them vs now? It’s like when people say “we once funded the entire government on tariffs”… yeah if government was still 1-2% of GDP we could totally do it. Unfortunately it’s not. And what worked befor le won’t work now any more than having a career making buggy whips.


This scale also applies to the inflationary affects. I mean we didn't even feel the inflation from the tens of trillions printed 2009-2020, either...until we did. Now we're hypersensitive to it, especially with our current deficit-debt compared to our GDP.

And responding to another post, the "jobs" one....that is the issue. These cuts will have drastic and negative effects on our economy, employment, etc. I will be the reciprocal of this is why we see spending programs to "boost" or "stimulate" the economy over the next 2 years.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
140573 posts
Posted on 1/9/25 at 12:12 pm to
Just posting this from the WSJ for historical context. Note when the Federal Reserve enters the picture (1913). They have been pretty good at preserving inflation. Inflation is a friend of federal government FV obligations and it requires congress to feed it. Inflation is the enemy of the people, specifically the saver. Inflation is taxation that the federal government does not overly tell you about.

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