re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

Thanks for adding the log chart of deaths.
The way you superimposed the graphic is a very smart way to display the data.
Unfortunately, it is sobering to see the trend in deaths are still in alignment with the trend in cases. Really hoping that starts to tail off soon.

What I find alarming is the ratio of "Recovered" cases to the number of total cases.

Recovery is exceedingly slow even for "Mild" cases and the death rate for the 14 day time frame 03/06 - 03/20 averages 1.7 "Deaths" for every "Recovery".

I pray that the ratio of 2.43 deaths to every recovery as exhibited on the 20th is an outlier and not an omen of a very long recovery time for existing and future cases.

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I don’t agree at all but I wouldn’t trust the slow down. Weekend testing.

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I would guess testing for the weekend is a lot lower. Deaths wait for no one. So hopefully we see good trends there.

No kidding. They actually just opened two drive through testing locations in Dallas. They have restrictions to mild fever, 65 or older, or dart driver, or first responder, or a couple other things.

There is so much bias about how tests are done, i.e regional variability due to access, ordering bias (based on the fairly subjective criteria of "symptoms", etc), I personally think it is hard to make any conclusions about "non-spreaders", etc.
Of course, as the data matures and we see more than 2 weeks worth, a lot of these questions may be able to be addressed.
Unfortunately, the death rate is trending very closely to the case rate, and both are growing exponentially. And for me, death rate is a surrogate marker for "serious cases", meaning they probably have the same trend.

But to more directly answer your question, what we want to avoid is the wave that is coming that is going to overwhelm the hospital system with "serious cases" and take up beds that are needed for none COVID patients that have reversible illnesses that may not get the level of care they need. This is where there is a broad implication to our society. Imagine in 2 months time a 48 year old man has an acute heart attack and makes it to the hospital in time to be saved after initial clot busting treatment, but instead of being put in the critical care area, with very close monitoring, he is put in the general ward without close monitoring. Has another event in the hospital and dies because of lack of nursing to monitor. Or a 21 year old asthmatic that comes in with an acute exacerbation but dies because they can't get a nebs treatment while they are sitting in a chair in the halls of the ER because there are no beds and all the respiratory therapists are tending to COVID patients who are also in respiratory distress.

But your point about "non-spreaders" is valid. That is akin to the "herd immunity" theory. If more people had pre-existing immunity to this, than the spread would be slowed as they do not pass it on. This is what vaccination accomplishes. But it would appear based on the trends that there are not enough non-spreaders. Maybe that group is growing, but these tests trends (after only a few weeks) don't seem to indicate it.

Word

IF this is true, then this isn't good.

https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1241407984842035208

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You can't say that the true death rate and case rate is trending together

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Sure you can, Unless a huge cluster of weak/old people died that skew the numbers.

There’s lag sure. But we can reasonably assume that the people that died today were infected 10-14 days ago

So maybe we say it’s a reflection of how the cases spread 10-14 days ago.

Updated numbers on Worldometer.com now has a mortality rate of 1.2%, down .014% from earlier today.