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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 3/21/20 at 7:21 pm to Chromdome35
Posted on 3/21/20 at 7:21 pm to Chromdome35
The 11-day thing is arbitrary. I find it useless. And everyone who champions it ignores the comparisons in mortality.
1
Posted on 3/21/20 at 7:49 pm to the808bass
quote:
And everyone who champions it ignores the comparisons in mortality.
Yeah, Italy has never had a non-alarming CFR. Ours was clearly skewed early and wasn't as bad, and has been fairly consistently trending downward - within striking distance of breaking below 1%.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 8:03 pm to Chromdome35
NOTE: Updated as of 8PM CST, These are not final numbers for the day, they will go up throughout the day.
NOTE: Until the end of the day, the growth rate numbers will not be correct.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 8:05 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
IF this is true, then this isn't good.
Agreed.
This could also be where the increase in access to testing in the US vs Italy is starting to show, especially as the discrepancy in death rate, (i.e. rate per 1000 cases, not total) between the 2 countries widens, suggesting Italy reserving tests for more symptomatic/serious cases.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 8:11 pm to NorCali
Good point NorCali
Posted on 3/21/20 at 8:24 pm to Chromdome35
Good trend is continuing
Posted on 3/21/20 at 8:24 pm to Chromdome35
I updated my earlier graph with todays numbers from both Italy and the US for comparison. Thought some folks might find it useful here.
This post was edited on 3/21/20 at 8:29 pm
Posted on 3/21/20 at 8:29 pm to MorgusTheMagnificent
quote:
Good trend is continuing
You apparently haven't seen the latest update :(
Posted on 3/21/20 at 8:31 pm to NYNolaguy1
New York is our Lombardy.
Both are accounting for (very) roughly half the total cases in the country.
Both are accounting for (very) roughly half the total cases in the country.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 8:32 pm to the808bass
Yeah we talking about that at dinner. I am actually trying to break this down by state per day but can't find any good places for data. Any ideas?
Posted on 3/21/20 at 8:35 pm to the808bass
quote:
New York is our Lombardy.
Both are accounting for (very) roughly half the total cases in the country.
Its America’s cruise ship city.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 8:36 pm to NYNolaguy1
If you click through the USA link, it breaks down by state at Worldometer. I think the data lags further behind, though. So you may have to wait a day.
LINK
LINK
This post was edited on 3/21/20 at 8:38 pm
Posted on 3/21/20 at 8:37 pm to the808bass
Why New York and not a west coast city with a huge Chinese pop?
Posted on 3/21/20 at 8:38 pm to the808bass
Right I saw that. It might be user error, but I couldn't get past yesterdays numbers going back, just today and yesterday unfortunately. I was going to do Louisiana too.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 8:38 pm to TigerFanatic99
quote:
the latest update :(
Looks like growth rate % is declining. The latest update puts us on 2 straight days of declines or am I interpreting this wrong?
Posted on 3/21/20 at 8:40 pm to NYNolaguy1
Ah. I see your point now. I’ll see if I can find something.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 8:41 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Why New York and not a west coast city with a huge Chinese pop?
There’s been multiple clusters from multiple countries. It’s probably made social histories and obtaining where patients were exposed more difficult as well.
I believe one of them was from an Iranian visitor.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 8:44 pm to MorgusTheMagnificent
That is good news. The data is jumping all over right now. It was over 8,000 new cases a second ago and now it’s 7,300.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 8:57 pm to the808bass
Yeah. We’re not finishing with good news tonight. Dammit.
Drastic increases in new cases and deaths.
10 days ago, our new cases was 290. 10 days later we have 80+ deaths. That’s not great either.
I’d expect to see our CFR rise significantly. Our new cases number is rising so fast that it might not show up as anything big. But I wouldn’t expect to finish under 1%. I’m just estimating and guessing to be transparent.
Drastic increases in new cases and deaths.
10 days ago, our new cases was 290. 10 days later we have 80+ deaths. That’s not great either.
I’d expect to see our CFR rise significantly. Our new cases number is rising so fast that it might not show up as anything big. But I wouldn’t expect to finish under 1%. I’m just estimating and guessing to be transparent.
This post was edited on 3/21/20 at 8:59 pm
Posted on 3/21/20 at 9:00 pm to the808bass
quote:
I’d expect to see our CFR rise significantly. Our new cases number is rising so fast that it might not show up as anything big. But I wouldn’t expect to finish under 1%. I’m just estimating and guessing to be transparent.
This was kind of the point of my graph. If you see huge spikes in cases you should see a big spike in deaths as well, otherwise the theory of tons of minor cases walking around will have some credence.
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