re: Tuesday Severe weather for the Gulf Coast/Snowstorm for Arkansas

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Kinda funny that an area that is in an Enhanced risk with a 30% chance of severe winds has a Wind Warning issued with gust potential under the severe threshold.

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was reading the NO NWS discussion.

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There is an Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather (3/5) for Tues night into Wed morning.
-A few brief, spin-up tornadoes will be possible
-potential for damaging winds (60+mph)
-large hail
Mainly along and south of I-10/I-12 corridor.

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a few brief spin up tornadoes, yet we are in hatched enhanced

I get it, but man sometimes the forecasters need to use better language .

I’ve got plenty of forecaster’s discussion writing ;)

I like guys like that with a little flair.

Brandon is damn good. He's also one of the only ones who will postmortem his work for all the world to see.

When does global warming start?

In case you haven't heard, don't go out on the water tomorrow anywhere along the western and northern Gulf coast or in any body of water.

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
650 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2023

Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River
LA out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River
to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya
River LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island
Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

WHAT...East to southeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35
kt expected through Tuesday afternoon. Late Tuesday afternoon
through Tuesday night south to southeast winds 25 to 40 kt with
gusts up to 50 kt. Wednesday morning through Thursday morning
west to northwest winds 15 to 25 kt gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 6 to
10 ft ramping up to 10 to 17 ft Tuesday Night then backing down
to 6 to 10 ft Wednesday and Wednesday night.

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Timing for SELA tomorrow?


From NO NWS at 330pm

Regarding the timing, this will generally be an evening and overnight event. Main timing for
-Baton Rouge and west 6p-12a
-southshore & northshore & S MS 8p-2a
-MS Coast 12a-5a.

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Timing for SELA tomorrow?

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This is just one run from one model but a decent frame of reference

3 pm:



6 pm:



9 pm:



Midnight:

Heads up to any folks South of Houston or between Houston and Galveston. Things have only trended up for that area over the past 24 hours. There's a small area with a volatile environment over that area. Anything that can get going will pose a serious tornado risk. It'll likely be a messy storm mode and storms will be moving quickly. Just keep an eye out if traveling, especially.